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   FNUS21 KWNS 171649

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1049 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

   Valid 171700Z - 181200Z

   ...Central and Southern Texas...
   Very dry, post-frontal flow from the north-northeast at 10-15 mph
   (locally 20 mph) will continue across much central/southern Texas
   through this evening. Despite the cooler temperatures ranging from
   the upper 40s to upper 50s, surface dewpoints in the 0-10F range
   should yield very low relative humidity below 10% across southern TX
   by peak afternoon heating under mostly clear skies. These conditions
   aligned with receptive and drought stressed fuels will promote at
   least elevated fire weather conditions for much of central and
   southern TX through today. A locally critical fire weather threat
   still exists where winds of 20 mph materialize. A slight expansion
   of the Elevated highlights was necessary owing to current surface
   observations and short term model trends.

   ...West-Central High Plains...
   Sustained north-northwest winds of 25-35 mph with localized gusts to
   50-55 mph this morning should gradually diminish today across
   southeastern WY, eastern CO, the NE Panhandle and western Kansas.
   Although the gusty winds will align with minimum relative humidity
   of 10-20% this afternoon, cold temperatures with highs in the 20s to
   low 30s should inhibit ignitions across an otherwise receptive
   fuelscape.

   ..Williams.. 01/17/2026

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0100 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026/

   ...Synopsis...
   Much of the Continental U.S. east of the Rockies will be dominated
   by mid-level troughing, with the surface conditions primarily
   characterized by cold air advection due to an intensifying surface
   pressure gradient as high pressure builds over the Central Great
   Plains. While much of the U.S. will experience cooler temperatures,
   some Elevated fire-weather concerns are anticipated this afternoon
   over portions of Central and Southern Texas where dry and breezy
   post-frontal conditions overlap with receptive fuels. 

   ...Central and Southern Texas...
   Though the surface cold front will already be well into the Gulf by
   early morning, daytime heating and mixing during the afternoon are
   expected to bring surface temperatures into the upper 40s in Central
   TX to the upper 50s in Southern TX. Relative humidity as low as 15%
   will overlap with fuels that exceed the 99th seasonal percentile for
   ERCs, and winds are expected to be in the 15-20 MPH range (gusting
   to 25 MPH). Given the duration and intensity of these conditions,
   Elevated highlights have been maintained, with locally Critical
   conditions possible with the most intense surface winds.

   ...West-Central High Plains...
   Dry and windy conditions will persist across eastern Colorado and
   Wyoming into western Kansas and Nebraska. Relative humidity as low
   as 10-20%, combined with winds of 25-30 MPH (gusting to 40 MPH) may
   pose some localized fire-weather concerns. Though fuels do appear to
   be receptive, surface temperatures ranging from the low 20s to low
   30s F should limit ignition potential and preclude any additional
   highlights.