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U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

   FNUS21 KWNS 261625

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1025 AM CST Sat Nov 26 2022

   Valid 261700Z - 271200Z


   The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no
   changes/additions were needed with this update.

   ..Weinman.. 11/26/2022

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CST Sat Nov 26 2022/

   Fire weather concerns will remain low for today for much of the
   CONUS. Localized concerns may emerge across portions of the central
   Plains and southern California.

   ...Central Plains...
   Early-morning surface observations show a cold front beginning to
   move into parts of MT/ND. This front will continue to the southeast
   over the next 24 hours, resulting in breezy northwest winds across
   much of southern SD and NE where fuels are dry (ERCs in the 80-90th
   percentile range). Cool post-frontal air will limit overall RH
   reductions, but some areas may experience periods of 15-20 mph winds
   (gusting to 25 mph) with RH values between 20-25%. However,
   confidence in the duration/coverage of such conditions remains

   ...Southern California...
   Poor overnight RH recoveries (RH values in the teens) are noted
   along the southern CA coast and interior terrain with a weak
   offshore flow regime in place. The development of a weak inland
   thermal low should favor weak onshore flow by this afternoon, but
   warm temperatures will maintain low RH. Pockets of elevated
   conditions will be possible for areas with terrain-enhanced winds as
   afternoon RH values fall into the teens and low 20s.

U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

   FNUS22 KWNS 261625

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1025 AM CST Sat Nov 26 2022

   Valid 271200Z - 281200Z


   The forecast remains on track, and no changes/additions were made
   with this update. For details, see the previous discussion below.

   ..Weinman.. 11/26/2022

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0209 AM CST Sat Nov 26 2022/

   Fire weather concerns will be limited Sunday across much of the
   CONUS. As the upper low over the southern Plains ejects across the
   OH River Valley region on Sunday, enhanced flow associated with the
   approach of a broad trough across the West will overspread the
   northern and central Rockies. A deepening lee trough along the High
   Plains will foster strong downslope winds from southern MT to
   southeast WY. Some pockets of downslope warming/drying may be
   sufficient to yield periods of elevated fire weather conditions.
   However, the spatial extent of these conditions remains uncertain as
   does the overlap with receptive fuels across the central Plains.

U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

   FNUS28 KWNS 261943

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0143 PM CST Sat Nov 26 2022

   Valid 281200Z - 041200Z

   A large-scale trough will amplify over the western CONUS on Day
   3/Monday, before shifting eastward across the Great Plains on Day
   4/Tuesday. Strengthening deep-layer west-southwesterly flow
   accompanying this feature will favor lee cyclogenesis in eastern CO
   on Day 3/Monday, prior to the surface low lifting east-northeastward
   from the central Plains into the Midwest on Day 4/Tuesday. 

   As the pressure gradient rapidly tightens along the southern
   periphery of the deepening surface low, 20+ mph sustained
   west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) will develop
   from the southern Rockies eastward across the southern High Plains
   on Day 3/Monday. These strong winds, coupled with downslope-related
   warming/drying (15-20 percent RH), will yield locally enhanced
   fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. However, below-average
   ERCs and ongoing precipitation across parts of this region should
   generally limit the fire-weather threat. Similarly for Day
   4/Tuesday, strong west-southwesterly surface winds and low RH will
   overspread the southern High Plains during the afternoon, with the
   best overlap of these conditions expected across parts of west TX.
   With that said, marginal fuels continue to cast uncertainty on the
   overall fire-weather threat.

   By Days 6-7/Thursday-Friday, broad large-scale troughing will become
   re-established over the West, with strong west-southwesterly
   midlevel flow favoring lee cyclogenesis over the central High
   Plains. In response, strong surface winds can be expected over the
   central and southern Plains, though a cool post-frontal airmass
   should generally temper the fire-weather threat -- especially given
   marginal fuels across this area.

   ..Weinman.. 11/26/2022

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