ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 131622
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1122 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025
Valid 131700Z - 141200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
Expanded the Critical risk area into the Texas Big Bend. 12Z high
resolution guidance and HREF probabilities suggest several hours of
critical fire weather conditions across this region later this
afternoon. These environmental parameters combined with ongoing
drought conditions in the region should bring critical fire weather
conditions. Elsewhere, no changes were made. See previous discussion
below.
..Bentley.. 03/13/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0119 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025/
...Synopsis...
A potent mid-level trough will rapidly traverse the Southwest and
impinge on the southern Rockies today, encouraging rapid surface
cyclone development along the central High Plains. As this occurs,
isallobaric and downslope flow will encourage dry and windy
conditions across much of the central and southern High Plains that
will be conducive to wildfire-spread. By afternoon peak heating,
sustained 20-25 mph south-southwesterly surface winds will overlap
with 15-20 percent RH, atop drying fuels, from the South
Dakota/Nebraska border to Far West Texas, necessitating the
continuance of Elevated and Critical fire weather highlights.
U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 131959
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0259 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...WEST TEXAS...NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...MUCH OF
OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEAST KANSAS...AND FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MOST OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
EASTERN KANSAS...WESTERN MISSOURI...SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA...
---Wildfire outbreak possible across parts of the Southern Plains---
Near historic fire weather conditions remain likely across portions
of the southern Plains on Friday. A broad area of sustained winds of
35-45 mph and wind gusts 70+ mph remain likely. Some areas,
particularly terrain exposed areas such as the TX Caprock could seen
wind gusts in excess of 80 mph beneath an extremely strong mid-level
jet streak.
Overall the Extremely Critical and Critical delineations remain
across the same areas with some expansion to account for the latest
forecast guidance. The greatest expansion was made across Missouri
and into southern Iowa where it appears the dry slot will reach by
Friday evening.
Additionally, an Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area was added for
eastern Kansas, northeast Oklahoma, western Missouri, and far
northwest Arkansas. Forecast soundings show low PWAT values (0.7 to
0.8") and a dry sub-cloud layer. These relatively dry storms,
particularly in the early convective stages, combined with very fast
storm motions (60+ knots) will lead to minimal accumulating
precipitation and the potential for lightning ignitions.
Additionally, the critical to extremely critical Wind/RH in the wake
of the convection could lead to rapid fire spread of any ignitions.
Ahead of the cold front, across the Midwest to southern Great Lakes,
sustained 20 to 30 mph winds are possible with relative humidity
around 25 to 35 percent. While relative humidity is slightly above
typical regional thresholds for Elevated fire weather conditions,
the strength of the winds and a significant amount of fire present
on the landscape supports and Elevated area.
..Bentley.. 03/13/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025/
...Synopsis...
---Significant, dangerous wildfire-spread conditions expected, with
a wildfire outbreak possible across parts of the Southern Plains
tomorrow (Friday)---
A powerful mid-level trough and associated 100+ kt 500 mb jet streak
will overspread the southern Plains tomorrow (Friday) afternoon,
supporting rapid deepening of an intense surface cyclone over
Kansas. Diurnal heating and associated deepening/mixing of the
boundary layer will support the downward momentum transport of very
strong winds aloft. This stronger channeled flow aloft, in tandem
with a strong isallobaric-driven component of surface flow, will
support an intense, damaging surface wind field across the southern
High Plains. The overlapping of this intense wind field with a very
dry low-level airmass across the southern Plains, overspreading dry
fuels, will encourage dangerous wildfire-spread conditions for
several hours Friday afternoon.
...Southern Plains...
By 18Z, the 100+ kt mid-level jet streak will overspread central
Oklahoma as the surface low strengthens to around 980 mb. As the
dryline surges eastward across the Southern Plains, 20-30 mph
sustained westerly surface winds and 10-20 percent RH will become
common across eastern New Mexico into much of Texas, nearly all of
Oklahoma, and central into eastern Kansas, where broad Critical
highlights have been introduced.
Of particular concern is that a belt of 35-45 mph sustained westerly
surface winds should develop across a sizeable region of northern
Texas into Oklahoma and far southern Kansas beneath the 500 mb jet
max. RH may lower to 10 percent within this belt of intense surface
winds, and gusts may reach 60 mph in spots. With fuels being at
least modestly to highly receptive to fire spread, the volatile
combination of surface winds/RH overspreading these fuels may
promote rapid wildfire spread/extreme fire behavior, and a wildfire
outbreak is possible. Much of this region has experienced meaningful
rainfall over the past week or so, and some guidance hints at RH
only dipping to around 25-30 percent in spots. Even so, the
anomalously strong wind field should compensate to support dangerous
wildfire-spread conditions, warranting the introduction of Extremely
Critical highlights.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 132131
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0431 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025
Valid 151200Z - 211200Z
A progressive pattern with strong mid-level flow across the southern
Plains will continue for much of the extended period. This will lead
to continued Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions across
portions of the Southern Plains.
...D3/Saturday - Central and Southern High Plains...
A strong (100+ knot) mid-level jet streak will move across southern
Texas during the day Saturday. The surface pressure gradient is not
expected to be that strong. However, a deeply mixed boundary layer
should allow some of the stronger mid-level flow to reach the
surface with sustained 25 to 30 mph winds from West Texas to the
Edwards Plateau.
In addition, a deeply mixed boundary layer is expected in the
central Plains. Cold air advection beneath the upper-level trough
with moderately strong northerly 850mb flow will support
strengthening surface winds during the afternoon. Sustained winds of
15 to 25 mph with relative humidity of 15 to 25 percent are possible
across parts of southern Nebraska, Kansas, northern Oklahoma, and
the northeast TX Panhandle.
...D5/Monday - D6/Tuesday - Southern High Plains...
Strong lee troughing will resume on Monday as mid-level flow
strengthens across the Rockies ahead of the next approaching
mid-level shortwave trough. As this occurs, critical fire weather
conditions are likely across the southern High Plains. The worst
winds are expected on Day 6/Tuesday as a strong mid-level jet streak
overspreads the southern High Plains. The overlap between the
surface pressure gradient and the strong mid-level jet streak across
eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle leads to significant
concerns for high-end critical and potentially extremely critical
fire weather conditions.
...D7/Wednesday - D8/Thursday - Southern High Plains...
Persistent strong westerly mid-level flow will be present across the
southern Plains on Wednesday with deep mixing likely allowing for
some dry and windy conditions to persist. The progressive pattern
continues into D8/Thursday with lee troughing resuming across the
southern High Plains. There are some timing differences between the
EPS and the GEFS which preclude higher probabilities, but despite
these timing differences, there is enough continuity in some lee
troughing to introduce 40% Critical probabilities.
..Bentley.. 03/13/2025
