ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 190659

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0159 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

   Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

   ...Synopsis...
   Along the northwestern periphery of an expansive upper ridge over
   the West, a weak midlevel disturbance and accompanying influx of
   midlevel moisture will overspread parts of the Northwest on Monday.
   While this should promote isolated to widely scattered high-based
   showers, the latest forecast soundings suggest that EL temperatures
   will be too warm for lightning with this activity. While an isolated
   strike or two cannot be completely ruled out over the higher
   terrain, confidence is currently too low to introduce an Isolated
   Dry Thunderstorm area. Elsewhere, a limited overlap of dry/windy
   conditions atop receptive fuels will reduce fire-weather concerns
   across the CONUS.

   ..Weinman.. 07/19/2026

      

   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 182201

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0501 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

   Valid 201200Z - 261200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   The extended forecast period exhibits a critical fire weather
   pattern for the Pacific Northwest and parts of northern California.
   A broad mid-level ridge will dominate over much of Intermountain
   West through early next week as troughing across the northeastern
   U.S. amplifies midweek. Model guidance suggests better chances of
   dry thunderstorm impacts for the Pacific Northwest emerging as early
   as Day 3/Monday as moisture from tropical storm Elida gets wrapped
   up along the northwestern periphery of the upper ridge. Beyond Day
   5/Wednesday, an incoming upper trough and influence from tropical
   storm Elida are expected to contribute to the breakdown of the upper
   ridge, encouraging dry air and gusty winds to overlap portions of
   the Northwest where lightning activity is forecast early in the
   forecast period.

   ...Days 3-5/Monday-Wednesday...
   The thunderstorm threat across CA and the Pacific Northwest remains
   very sensitive to the expected track of a subtropical moisture plume
   from tropical storm Elida. Thunderstorms could threaten
   central/northern CA as early as Day 3/Monday, moving into the
   Pacific Northwest by Days 4-5/Tuesday-Wednesday. While forecast
   PWATs range from 0.9-1.3", fast storm motions may limit
   precipitation efficiency, generating greater ignition potential as
   the fuelscape remains receptive. For this outlook, 10% dry
   thunderstorm probabilities were introduced on Day 3/Monday for the
   initial surge of subtropical moisture into northern CA and southern
   OR. Additional probabilities and adjustments may be needed in future
   outlooks as the upper pattern is better resolved.

   ...Days 6-8/Thursday-Saturday...
   Following several days of mixed wet/dry thunderstorm potential,
   longer term ensemble guidance suggests a return to dry and breezy
   conditions across portions of CA and the Pacific Northwest beginning
   Day 6/Thursday. Ensemble cluster analysis suggests a more inland
   push of an upper-trough into the Pacific Northwest on Day 7/Friday,
   with broader 40% Critical probabilities expanded (and introduced on
   Day 8/Saturday) across WA/OR into far southwest ID.

   ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 07/18/2026