ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 061935

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0235 PM CDT Tue Oct 06 2026

   Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

   No changes were made to the Day 2/Wednesday forecast; see the
   previous discussion for more information.

   ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 10/06/2026

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1143 PM CDT Mon Oct 05 2026/

   ...Synopsis...
   On Day 2/Wednesday, an upper-level jet streak will continue
   advancing southeast over the northern Plains and Great Lakes
   regions. This will be accompanied by a cold front moving across
   portions of the Midwest with northwesterly surface winds near 15-20
   mph in its wake. However, RHs will fail to drop below 30%, which
   only reinforces the already limited fuel receptiveness, precluding a
   notable fire weather concern.

      

   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 062159

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0459 PM CDT Tue Oct 06 2026

   Valid 081200Z - 141200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   An upper ridge over the western CONUS will begin to break down on
   Day 3/Thursday as an upper-level trough dives southward through the
   weekend. Forecast guidance indicates this system will introduce
   increased winds, but also usher in cooler temperatures and
   precipitation chances over the parts of the Pacific Northwest and
   Northern Rockies primarily on Days 5-6/Saturday-Sunday. Beyond Day
   6/Sunday, low predictability in the progression of the upper trough
   precludes additional areas of concern; however, gusty northerly
   winds behind the trough could induce a fire weather threat across
   northern CA where fuels remain dry.

   A tropical system is expected to impact the central Gulf Coast later
   this week, bringing precipitation chances to portions of the MS
   Valley and Mid-South this weekend where ERCs are approaching the
   80-90th percentile. Prior to the arrival of deeper Gulf moisture,
   dry and locally breezy conditions may overlap pockets of receptive
   fuels in the lower MS Valley on Day 4/Friday.

   ...Days 4-5/Friday-Saturday...
   Ahead of the aforementioned trough approaching the Pacific
   Northwest, increasing southwesterly flow is likely to support
   widespread strong surface winds (sustained near 20 mph) amid
   above-normal temperatures and dry afternoon RH near 10-20%.
   Additionally, a southward progressing dry cold front and
   accompanying wind shift will enhance fire weather concerns. After
   several days of dry conditions and above-normal temperatures through
   the workweek, fuels will be conditioned for ignition across much of
   the central latitudes of the western CONUS as this wind event
   approaches. Thus, 40% probabilities of Critical wind/RH conditions
   have been introduced over the northwestern Great Basin on Day
   4/Friday, and maintained across much of MT/WY.

   Guidance has trended towards slightly lower probabilities of
   Critical fire weather conditions in western WY on Day 5/Saturday,
   resulting in minor adjustments to the existing 40% Critical
   probabilities. A cold front is expected to stall across the northern
   Great Basin, potentially allowing an area of dry and breezy
   conditions to evolve east of the northern Sierra into central NV.
   Additional probabilities may be needed as confidence increases in
   the overall pattern evolution.

   ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 10/06/2026