ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 190454

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1154 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

   Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   The active and progressive mid-level synoptic pattern responsible
   for recent critical fire weather across the Southwest and southern
   High Plains will begin transitioning toward a more quasi-zonal flow
   regime on Wednesday. Below-normal temperatures and fairly widespread
   precipitation will overspread of the central and eastern CONUS. This
   incoming airmass will temporarily dampen the fire weather threat
   across a broad portion of the country and support a beneficial
   green-up of herbaceous vegetation in some areas, particularly across
   the northern CONUS, where fire-slowing vegetation has struggled to
   emerge this spring. However, dry and breezy conditions remain in
   place for at least one more day across portions of the Southwest.

   ...Southwest...
   Despite the flattening upper-level pattern, a lingering belt of
   moderate southwesterly flow aloft (30-40 kts near the top of the
   afternoon boundary layer due to strong diurnal heating) will remain
   over the Southern Rockies. Sustained southwest winds of 10-20 mph
   will align with minimum relative humidity values of 10-20%. Thus, an
   area of Elevated fire weather conditions will exist as this wind/RH
   overlap coincides with critically dry fuels.

   ..Stearns.. 05/19/2026

      

   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 182117

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0417 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

   Valid 201200Z - 261200Z

   A progressive mid-level synoptic pattern will to transition to
   quasi-zonal flow on Day 3/Wednesday. Simultaneously, a weak
   shortwave trough will drift southward over the Intermountain West
   and across the northern U.S. through late this week. A combination
   of below normal temperatures and fairly widespread precipitation
   will overspread much of the central and eastern portions of the
   CONUS as synoptic flow stabilizes into the weekend. This could
   briefly dampen the fire weather threat across much of the country
   and support additional green up in some locations, particularly
   across the northern CONUS, that have thus far been struggling to
   grow fire-slowing vegetation. However, much longer duration
   precipitation and cool conditions would be needed to appreciably
   improve heavy dead fuel moisture and resultant ERCs.  

   On Day 3/Wednesday, lingering moderate southwesterly flow aloft will
   encourage breezy conditions amid a dry airmass across
   central-western NM and eastern AZ. 40% Critical probabilities remain
   where southwest winds sustained at 10-20 mph will align with minimum
   RH of 10-20% atop dry fuels. On Day 4/Thursday, persisting low RH
   across the Southwest with much lighter winds will preclude the
   introduction of probabilities. Beyond Day 5/Friday, guidance begins
   to vary in the timing/extent of embedded shortwaves and associated
   chances of precipitation. Nonetheless, the overall upper pattern
   suggests dampened fire weather conditions on a broader scale through
   the forecast period, in the exception of localized terrain-driven
   breezy conditions across parts of the West.

   ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 05/18/2026