ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 191939

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0239 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

   Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

   High resolution guidance depicts suffusing high-based showers over
   northern CA and central-eastern OR on Day 2/Monday. Passing
   shortwave disturbances may permit a few lightning strikes across the
   region; however, limited instability precludes Isolated Dry
   Thunderstorm highlights. Antecedent dry boundary layer conditions
   will favor evaporation, hindering accumulating precipitation at the
   surface and keeping fuels dry.

   ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 07/19/2026

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026/

   ...Synopsis...
   Along the northwestern periphery of an expansive upper ridge over
   the West, a weak midlevel disturbance and accompanying influx of
   midlevel moisture will overspread parts of the Northwest on Monday.
   While this should promote isolated to widely scattered high-based
   showers, the latest forecast soundings suggest that EL temperatures
   will be too warm for lightning with this activity. While an isolated
   strike or two cannot be completely ruled out over the higher
   terrain, confidence is currently too low to introduce an Isolated
   Dry Thunderstorm area. Elsewhere, a limited overlap of dry/windy
   conditions atop receptive fuels will reduce fire-weather concerns
   across the CONUS.

      

   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 192139

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0439 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

   Valid 211200Z - 271200Z

   ...Synopsis...
   The extended forecast period exhibits a critical fire weather
   pattern for the Pacific Northwest and parts of northern California.
   A broad mid-level ridge will dominate over much of Intermountain
   West through early this week as troughing across the northeastern
   U.S. amplifies midweek. Model guidance suggests better chances of
   dry thunderstorm impacts for the Pacific Northwest on Days
   3-4/Tuesday-Wednesday as moisture from tropical storm Elida gets
   wrapped up along the northwestern periphery of the upper ridge. On
   Day 5/Thursday, an incoming upper trough and influence from tropical
   storm Elida are expected to contribute to the breakdown of the upper
   ridge. As strong southwest-westerly flow overlaps the northwestern
   U.S., a returning dry airmass and gusty winds may encourage
   lightning holdovers to emerge where dry fuels exist.

   ...Days 3-4/Tuesday-Wednesday...
   The thunderstorm threat across CA and the Pacific Northwest remains
   very sensitive to the expected track of a subtropical moisture plume
   from tropical storm Elida. Thunderstorms are forecast for northern
   CA and portions of the Pacific Northwest on Day 3/Tuesday, and
   increasing in coverage on Day 4/Wednesday. While forecast PWATs
   range from 0.8-1.2", fast storm motions may limit precipitation
   efficiency, generating greater ignition potential as the fuelscape
   remains receptive. Localized accumulating rainfall is possible with
   wetter thunderstorms, especially areas that receive multiple rounds
   of rainfall. For this outlook, 10% dry thunderstorm probabilities
   were introduced on Day 4/Wednesday as extended guidance has trended
   towards maintaining a dry boundary layer and ample instability.
   Probabilities may be adjusted in future outlooks as the upper
   pattern is better resolved.

   ...Days 5-8/Thursday-Sunday...
   Following several days of mixed wet/dry thunderstorm potential,
   longer term ensemble guidance suggests a return to dry and breezy
   conditions across portions of CA and the Pacific Northwest beginning
   Day 5/Thursday. Ensembles suggest the upper trough will strengthen
   across the northwestern U.S. on Days 6-7/Friday-Saturday, prompting
   an expansion of 40% Critical probabilities.

   ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 07/19/2026