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U.S. & Canada 12-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast
Map is in operation from early April through October 31
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 081640
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1140 AM CDT Mon Jun 08 2026
Valid 081700Z - 091200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST...GREAT
BASIN...CENTRAL ROCKIES...
...Northwestern NM into southern CO...
Daytime instability, influx of mid-level moisture from the southwest
and presence of a dry, sub-cloud layer should promote mainly dry
thunderstorms this afternoon across northwestern NM. Fuels continue
to dry with ERC percentiles at or above the 90th percentile across
the Four Corners region which could better support lightning
ignitions. Nocturnal convection is possible across northwestern NM
northward towards the San Juan Mountains in south-central CO as
mid-level flow and shear increase ahead of an approaching upper
short-wave trough this evening and overnight. A slight northward
expansion of Isolated Dry Thunderstorm Highlights into south-central
CO was warranted based on latest short term model guidance.
...Southwest, Great Basin and Central Rockies...
Minor adjustments were made to the existing Elevated and Critical
highlights over the Great Basin and Central Rockies. Elevated
highlights were extended northward into northeastern NV and southern
ID based on latest forecast guidance, surface observation trends,
lack of recent rainfall and near critically dry fuels. Otherwise,
forecast remains largely on track for expansive critical fire
weather conditions including southwest winds of 15-25 mph and RH of
5-15% by this afternoon over the eastern Great Basin, northern AZ,
southern UT into south-central WY.
..Williams.. 06/08/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0131 AM CDT Mon Jun 08 2026/
...Synopsis...
A persistent longwave trough is in place over the northwestern CONUS
with perturbations moving through a belt of strong flow through the
day on Monday. The associated surface low pressure will result in
breezy conditions across portions of the Southwest, Great Basin and
central Rockies. A dry air mass and dry fuels are in place, leading
to Critical fire weather risk in these areas
...Southwest, Great Basin, and the Central Rockies...
Strong vertical mixing along with a strengthening pressure gradient
will result in strong winds to 20-30 mph and RH near 5-15% in the
afternoon. Fuels in the area have been persistently dry generally
with poor overnight RH recovery exacerbating the dry fuels.
Therefore, a Critical fire weather risk has been maintained here.
...Northwest New Mexico...
Strong diurnal heating along with a compact jet max aloft
overlapping a plume of mid-level moisture will likely result in
isolated storm development across parts of northwestern New Mexico
during the afternoon. A very dry boundary layer and fast storm
motions suggest that this activity will be mainly dry. Due to the
presence of dry fuels, have maintained an Isolated Dry Thunder area
here.
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 081945
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0245 PM CDT Mon Jun 08 2026
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND
GREAT BASIN...
...Southwest, eastern Great Basin and Central Rockies...
An upper-level trough over the Northwest CONUS and attendant
stronger mid-level flow atop a well mixed boundary layer, will
support a broad fire weather concern across the eastern Great Basin,
Southwest, Central Rockies and adjacent High Plains. A corridor of
stronger southwesterly flow ahead of an advancing cold front will
set up across the CO Plateau where sustained southwest winds of 20
mph to locally 30 mph are expected. The winds coupled with RH at or
below 10% and receptive fuels will sustain several hours of critical
fire weather conditions Tuesday afternoon. Expanded Elevated
highlights into the central CO and adjacent high plains. Lee surface
troughing across the central High Plains will bolster southwest
winds of 15-20 mph and enhance downslope drying across the Front
Range, where RH reductions of 15-20% will likely align with pockets
of receptive fuels.
...Northwestern New Mexico and far southern Colorado...
An approaching upper-level trough, associated accelerating mid-level
flow and existing mid-level moisture should support a thunderstorm
threat for Tuesday for northwestern NM into far southern CO.
Nocturnal convection is possible through tonight into Tuesday
morning across northwestern NM although primary period of concern
remains Tuesday afternoon where daytime instability will be
maximized. Thunderstorms will quickly translate northeastward
through the period owing to increasing flow aloft, limiting wetting
rain potential. A deep, dry boundary layer will further inhibit
surface rainfall from isolated thunderstorms. Isolated Dry
Thunderstorm highlights have been added to northwestern NM and far
southern CO given receptive fuels and potential for lightning
ignitions.
..Williams.. 06/08/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0133 AM CDT Mon Jun 08 2026/
...Synopsis...
A longwave trough will remain in place over the northwestern CONUS
through the day on Tuesday with a strong jet max moving in across
portions of the Pacific Northwest and Great Basin. This will result
gusty winds across portions of the Southwest, Great Basin, and
central Rockies, and central High Plains.
...Southwest and Great Basin...
Diurnal mixing with strong (for the season) flow aloft will result
in winds of 20-30 mph across much of the region along with RH of
5-15% in the afternoon. Continued poor overnight RH recovery means
fuels in this area are critically dry. Therefore, have introduced a
Critical fire weather risk area here.
...Central High Plains and Foothills...
Strong winds (20-30 mph and locally higher) are expected to
overspread the region along with RH values in the 10-15% range west
of a dryline. The primary uncertainty in this region is with the
fuels, as many areas have received precipitation recently, and some
may receive additional precipitation on Monday. Therefore, will add
an Elevated risk in this area, though there may be some localized
areas of Critical fire weather risk.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 082155
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0455 PM CDT Mon Jun 08 2026
Valid 101200Z - 161200Z
...Synopsis...
A large scale upper trough will gradually shift eastward from the
Northern Rockies on Day 3/Wednesday into the Great Lakes by Day
5/Friday. A troughing pattern will likely remain entrenched across
Ontario Canada and northeastern U.S. with another possible short
wave pushing southeastward into the Northern Rockies early next
week. The departing trough and accompanying stronger mid-level flow
will subdue broader fire weather concerns across the West later this
week as the amplifying ridge promotes a warming and drying trend
across the region.
...Day 3-5/Wednesday-Friday...
...Eastern Great Basin, Colorado Plateau and central High Plains...
Stronger westerly surface winds in the wake of a cold front below a
pronounced 80-90 knot mid-level jet, will likely bring an enhanced
fire weather concern to portions of southeastern WY and western NE
Panhandle on Day 3/Wednesday. 70% critical probabilities have been
introduced where west winds of 25-30 mph and RH as low as 15% align
with pockets of dry fuels. Weaker but still impactful westerly flow
will bring a fire weather concern to much of the eastern Great
Basin, Colorado Plateau and Four corners regions where 40%
probabilities remain. The broader fire weather threat contracts
towards the Four Corners and adjacent southern CO Rockies by Days
4-5/Thursday-Friday as influence from the departing upper trough and
surface pressure features begins to wane.
...Sacramento Valley...
Dry, post-frontal northerly flow funneling into the Sacramento
Valley will likely promote an enhanced fire weather threat for this
region and adjacent valley foothills beginning Day 3/Wednesday,
lingering into Day 4/Thursday. North winds of 10 to locally 20 mph,
RH at or below 15% are expected to combine with receptive fuels to
support fire spread. 40% critical probabilities were added for Day
4/Thursday accounting for latest model guidance and duration of
event.
...Day 6/Saturday...
...Northern Arizona and Southern Utah...
A weak upper trough west of Baja Peninsula will aid in northward
transport of deeper Pacific moisture from Tropical Storm Boris
through the week, reaching the lower desert areas of the Southwest
as early as Day 5/Friday. Precipitable water values of one inch or
more should stay south of the Mogollon Rim region through the
weekend. A dry thunderstorm concern will likely exist on the fringes
of the deeper moisture across northern AZ into southern UT. A 10%
probability dry thunderstorm area was introduced, although some
modifications may be needed in subsequent outlooks as forecast
certainty increases.
..Williams.. 06/08/2026
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