ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 141655
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1155 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025
Valid 141700Z - 151200Z
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MOST OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
EASTERN KANSAS...WESTERN MISSOURI...
---Wildfire outbreak appears likely across the southern Plains
today.---
Extreme fire weather conditions are well underway across portions of
eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma as
of 1630z. Infrared satellite and hot spot detection shows several
new fires developing over the last couple of hours. Peak gusts up to
70-80 mph have been observed across the Texas Panhandle, with
minimum relative humidity dropping into the teens. In addition, a
few dry thunderstorms were observed across northeastern Oklahoma
earlier this morning.
No major changes were made the D1 Fire Outlook, with Extremely
Critical fire weather conditions expected across portions of the
southern Plains from far eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle
and northeastward across Oklahoma and into southeastern Kansas.
Outside of this, a broad area of Elevated to Critical conditions
will be possible from the southern Plains into the Midwest. Use
extreme caution in these areas obeying all local fire restrictions
and avoiding any activity that produces open flames or sparks.
An Elevated delineation was added across portions of the Ohio Valley
in Ohio and West Virginia. Ahead of the approaching low pressure
system, relative humidity around 20-25% will overlap sustained winds
15-20 mph (locally higher). This may extend into some localized
areas of the Blue Ridge Mountains and eastern Tennessee, though this
remains too isolated to include areas at this time.
..Thornton.. 03/14/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0106 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025/
...Synopsis...
A wildfire outbreak appears likely today across the southern Plains
as extremely critical fire weather conditions spread from the TX
Panhandle and Rolling Hills Country into much of OK and southeast
KS.
...Southern Plains...
Lee cyclogenesis is well underway across the central High Plains
with steady pressure falls of about 15 mb over the past 12 hour
observed at several stations. Regional VWPs across the Plains/High
Plains show low-level winds strengthening with 50-knot flow already
observed within the lowest kilometer, indicative of a robust
low-level mass response ahead of a potent upper trough. These winds
are expected to strengthen further over the next 12 hours as the
surface low continues to deepen and the mid-level jet streak
overspreads the southern Plains through the morning/early-afternoon.
Latest forecast guidance shows very good agreement in the
development of critical to extremely critical fire weather
conditions as early as 12-14 UTC across eastern NM into the Permian
Basin/Rolling Plains as the strong low-level winds quickly mix to
the surface. 30-40 mph sustained winds are expected to spread east
into northern TX and OK through late morning/early afternoon and
southeast KS by mid-afternoon. Consensus among deterministic
guidance is that frequent gusts between 50-70 mph are likely under
the mid-level jet streak with occasional gusts upwards of 80 mph
possible along/off the Caprock in western TX.
00 UTC Friday observed soundings across western TX/southwest KS
sampled a very dry boundary layer with 0-1 km mean RH around 15%.
Despite an influx of slightly cooler air, the combination of full
insolation, dry air advection, and deep boundary-layer mixing will
promote widespread 10-15% RH values. Drier deterministic solutions
hint that RH reductions into the single digits are possible -
especially across the Rolling Plains of northwest TX. Latest fuel
guidance suggests that ERCs are regionally highest across this area
with a swath of drying fuels extending northeastward into OK and the
KS/MO/AR/OK quad-state region where wildfire activity has recently
been noted. This combination of extremely strong winds, critically
low RH, and receptive fuels across a large swath of the southern
Plains is culminating in an anomalously high-end fire weather
threat.
...Dry Thunderstorms...
Strong ascent ahead of the shortwave trough will promote steepening
lapse rates and eventual convective initiation across northeast
OK/KS/MO through the early afternoon hours. Low precipitable water
content and very fast (50-60 knot) storm motions of the initial
storms will limit rainfall amounts for any given location and
support dry lighting strikes across a landscape with a history of
fire activity over the past few days. Consequently, lightning starts
are possible ahead of the onset of critical/extremely critical fire
weather conditions.
...Midwest...
Gradient winds are expected to increase to around 20-25 mph through
the day ahead of the deepening surface low in the Plains. Despite
increasing moisture through the day, daytime heating should promote
RH values into the 20-30% range across a broad region. Although ERCs
are not anomalously high for mid-March, several days of minimal
rainfall has allowed drying of finer fuels that should support a
wind-driven threat.
U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 140714
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0214 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN TEXAS INTO THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU...
...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns will continue across the central and southern
Plains for Saturday as gradient winds linger across KS, OK, and TX.
Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts an upper trough digging
southward along the West Coast in the wake of a leading shortwave
trough. This wave is expected overspread the southern Plains early
Saturday with secondary cyclogenesis expected across the lower to
mid MS River Valley by late afternoon. Although the surface low will
be moving eastward away from the Plains, gradient winds behind and
ahead of a trailing cold front are expected to increase to 15-25 mph
by mid-afternoon from KS to southern TX.
...Southern TX into the Edwards Plateau...
15-25 mph westerly winds are expected across the southern half of TX
ahead of a diffuse, southward-moving cold front. Dry and
exceptionally windy conditions today (Friday) will lead to
widespread drying of fine fuels across much of central and southern
TX, which will support fire concerns for Saturday. Nearly 24 hours
of westerly downslope flow off the southern Rockies will also
promote RH reductions into the teens along the Rio Grande and across
middle and lower TX coasts. Widespread elevated conditions are
expected with a swath of critical 20-25 mph winds and 15-20% RH
likely from the San Angelo area southeastward into the south TX
Brush Country.
...Nebraska to Kansas, Oklahoma, and the TX Panhandle...
Dry conditions are expected within the post-frontal regime Saturday
afternoon as northerly winds increase to 15-20 mph. Despite an
influx of cooler temperatures, dewpoints in the single digits
coupled with limited cloud cover should promote RH reductions into
the teens to low 20s. Confidence is fairly high in the development
of elevated to critical fire weather conditions across southern NE
into KS and OK/adjacent portions of the TX Panhandle where fuels are
currently dry and supportive of fire spread. Consideration was given
to introducing a Critical risk area across western KS into northwest
OK, but rain chances over the next 24 hours may limit fuel status to
some degree. Critical risk delineations may be needed if rainfall
amounts are less than anticipated and/or if holdover fires from
lightning strikes on Friday pose a heightened fire weather concern
on Saturday given the expected dry/windy conditions.
..Moore.. 03/14/2025
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 132131
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0431 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025
Valid 151200Z - 211200Z
A progressive pattern with strong mid-level flow across the southern
Plains will continue for much of the extended period. This will lead
to continued Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions across
portions of the Southern Plains.
...D3/Saturday - Central and Southern High Plains...
A strong (100+ knot) mid-level jet streak will move across southern
Texas during the day Saturday. The surface pressure gradient is not
expected to be that strong. However, a deeply mixed boundary layer
should allow some of the stronger mid-level flow to reach the
surface with sustained 25 to 30 mph winds from West Texas to the
Edwards Plateau.
In addition, a deeply mixed boundary layer is expected in the
central Plains. Cold air advection beneath the upper-level trough
with moderately strong northerly 850mb flow will support
strengthening surface winds during the afternoon. Sustained winds of
15 to 25 mph with relative humidity of 15 to 25 percent are possible
across parts of southern Nebraska, Kansas, northern Oklahoma, and
the northeast TX Panhandle.
...D5/Monday - D6/Tuesday - Southern High Plains...
Strong lee troughing will resume on Monday as mid-level flow
strengthens across the Rockies ahead of the next approaching
mid-level shortwave trough. As this occurs, critical fire weather
conditions are likely across the southern High Plains. The worst
winds are expected on Day 6/Tuesday as a strong mid-level jet streak
overspreads the southern High Plains. The overlap between the
surface pressure gradient and the strong mid-level jet streak across
eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle leads to significant
concerns for high-end critical and potentially extremely critical
fire weather conditions.
...D7/Wednesday - D8/Thursday - Southern High Plains...
Persistent strong westerly mid-level flow will be present across the
southern Plains on Wednesday with deep mixing likely allowing for
some dry and windy conditions to persist. The progressive pattern
continues into D8/Thursday with lee troughing resuming across the
southern High Plains. There are some timing differences between the
EPS and the GEFS which preclude higher probabilities, but despite
these timing differences, there is enough continuity in some lee
troughing to introduce 40% Critical probabilities.
..Bentley.. 03/13/2025
