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U.S. & Canada 12-UTC 48 Hour Surface Smoke Forecast
Map is in operation from early April through October 31
U.S. Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 281646
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1146 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026
Valid 281700Z - 291200Z
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEASTERN
UTAH...CENTRAL-SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO...AND FAR NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA
INTO EXTREME NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA...SOUTHEASTERN
UTAH...WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO...AND NORTHWESTERN NEW
MEXICO...
***Dangerous fire weather conditions are expected across portions of
the West Slope and Colorado Plateau this afternoon.***
...Afternoon Update...
A targeted Extremely Critical fire weather risk area was introduced
to the Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook. High resolution guidance depicts
a combination of sustained southwesterly 25-35 mph winds and 5-10%
RH to overlap exceptionally dry fuels and ongoing wildfires for
several hours this afternoon. In addition, a cold front will
gradually sag southward towards the Four Corners region this
evening, pushing through west-central CO and southeastern UT between
23-03z. A wind shift is expected behind the front, transitioning
broad southwesterly winds to north-northwesterly with sustained
winds of 10-15 mph (gusts over 20 mph), lasting for a few hours
before gradually diminishing overnight. RH will also increase behind
the front, bringing some relief in the form of humidity recoveries
to parts of eastern UT and western CO.
Extreme caution should be taken across the fire weather risk areas
this afternoon, as the previously mentioned weather conditions are
very conducive to rapid spread/fire growth on existing wildfires and
new ignitions. The rest of the forecast remains on track, see the
previous discussion for more information.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 06/28/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026/
...Synopsis...
A longwave, upper-level trough will persist over the Intermountain
West today, with one embedded shortwave remaining relatively
stationary across the northern High Plains and a second shortwave
trough pivoting southeastward through Nevada and portions of the
Great Basin. Concurrently, an associated mid-level jet will continue
to be oriented across the Four Corners region while a surface cold
front remains relatively stationary along the western edge of the
Colorado Plateau. This will promote a third consecutive day of
enhanced dry/breezy conditions across portions of the eastern Great
Basin and Southwest today.
...Four Corners region...
A corridor of sustained southwesterly surface winds of 20-25+ mph
(with gusts of 35-40+ mph possible) and minimum RH values of 5-15%
is forecast this afternoon from northern Arizona into southeastern
Utah, western/southwestern Colorado, and northwestern New Mexico.
With this multi-day period of dry/breezy conditions exacerbating
fuel dryness/receptiveness (ERCs noted in the 80-95+ percentiles)
and the anticipation for poor overnight relative humidity recoveries
(RHs noted to be lingering at or below 15-25% across portions of the
Four Corners region as of 0530 UTC), several hours of critical fire
weather conditions (with the potential for localized extremely
critical conditions) are expected this afternoon across much of the
Four Corners region and Colorado Plateau. A broader area of elevated
fire weather concerns is also forecast across adjacent areas of the
Great Basin/Southwest where winds of 15-25 mph will overlap low RH
of 10-20%. Only minor adjustments were made to the drawn areas with
this update to reflect the latest guidance.
Recent guidance also suggests that the shortwave trough rotating
through the base of the longer wavelength troughing will contribute
to a southward surge of the cold front closer to the Four Corners
region later tonight. For areas that experience this frontal
passage, some RH recovery and a shift to northerly/northwesterly
winds can be expected (with a couple hour period of sustained 10-20
mph winds possible).
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U.S. Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 281847
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0147 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...Afternoon Update...
No changes were made to the Elevated fire weather outlook area.
Locally critical fire weather conditions may emerge across the
higher terrain of the central Colorado Rockies on Day 2/Monday,
especially within the San Luis Valley where RH of 15% or less will
combine with sustained west-southwesterly winds of 20-30 mph. This
region did have sporadic areas of appreciable rainfall last week;
however, several preceding days of hot, dry, and windy conditions
have preconditioned fuels to become increasingly more receptive
(90-99th percentile ERCs). The rest of the forecast remains on
track, see the previous discussion for more information.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 06/28/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026/
...Synopsis...
Longwave upper troughing will continue to remain positioned across
the Intermountain West on D2/Monday. An embedded, mid-level
shortwave trough will eject northeastward across the northern High
Plains, with the strongest mid-level flow shifting northeastward in
tandem with this feature. A second mid-level shortwave will
simultaneously pivot southeastward into the Southwest. Combined with
a persistent dry air mass and lingering enhanced mid-level flow,
this will continue to support expansive fire weather concerns across
portions of the Great Basin and Southwest.
...Southwest/Four Corners region...
Enhanced southwesterly, mid-level flow will continue to persist
across portions of the Southwest and Four Corners region on Monday
ahead of an approaching shortwave trough forecast to pivot
southeastward into southern California Monday afternoon. This will
support sustained southwesterly surface winds of 15-20 mph amid very
low RH values of 10-15%. Several days of antecedent dry, windy
conditions will continue to exacerbate fuel dryness/receptiveness
(with ERCs in the 80th to 95th percentiles or greater across much of
the region). This will promote elevated to locally critical fire
weather concerns across much of Arizona, eastern Utah, western
Colorado, western New Mexico, and portions of southern Wyoming.
Occasional wind gusts of 30+ mph will also be possible, primarily
across portions of western/central Colorado where the strongest
mid-level flow is forecast to overlap a deep, well-mixed boundary
layer. Minor adjustments were made with this outlook cycle to
reflect the latest guidance.
U.S. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 282112
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0412 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026
Valid 301200Z - 061200Z
A shortwave trough will traverse the Interior West on Day 3/Tuesday,
promoting southerly flow across the Southwest into the central
Rockies before shifting northward into the Upper Midwest on Day
4/Wednesday. Persistent troughing, enhanced flow aloft, and an
established dry airmass will maintain fire weather threats across
the Great Basin and Southwest. Meanwhile, a strong ridge of high
pressure will continue to build across the central-eastern CONUS
through the forecast period, promoting widespread above normal
temperatures with mostly dry conditions.
Enhanced southwesterly flow associated with persistent upper-level
troughing will sustain fire weather concerns across the Southwest,
Great Basin, and CO Rockies next week. As such, 40% probabilities
have been maintained on Day 3/Tuesday, and Days 5-6/Thursday-Friday
where dry and breezy winds are forecast to overlap receptive fuels.
Beyond Day 6/Friday, extended guidance hints at the potential for a
pattern change. The upper-level trough is forecast to lift into the
northern Plains, while ensembles depict ridging may build across
northern Mexico and into the Southwest sometime next weekend. This
could potentially allow monsoonal moisture to advect northward;
however, varying model trends lend to lower predictability in the
overall pattern evolution.
..Elizalde-Garcia.. 06/28/2026
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