Worland, Wyoming 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

228
FXUS65 KRIW 130500
AFDRIW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
1000 PM MST Tue Nov 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Weather system is passing through the area today, but so far
  precip amounts have been underwhelming. Snow will shift east
  of the Continental Divide this evening, with minor snowfall
  accumulations. Snow showers linger across northwest WY through
  this week.

- The jet stream will hang over the region through this week,
  which will keep it breezy to windy.

- Another trough/weather system is likely (70%) for this
  weekend. Initial thoughts are this system will split the area
  and not result in a major winter storm, but western mountains
  and YNP could see moderate snowfall amounts.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1258 PM MST Tue Nov 12 2024

The trough/weather system is passing through the area today. A
notable trend is for an apparent mid-level circulation passing
through southern WY this afternoon/evening, which has led to an
increase in QPF for central basins. Snowfall amounts will be limited
due to the warm temps of late resulting in warm ground temps. An
area of moderate snowfall will shift south and east this evening,
exiting the area overnight as the trough slides east. It will remain
breezy to windy through this evening, with gusts of 20-35 mph on
average and up to 45 mph across southern WY and Johnson County. The
jet stream is likely (70%) to remain over the region through
Thursday, so it will remain breezy to windy for most of the week.

It will be cooler on Wednesday behind today`s trough/weather system,
but another brief warmup is very likely (90%) for Thursday as warmer
air pushes in ahead of a late week/weekend trough. Model guidance is
in good agreement with the timing of precip beginning late afternoon
on Friday across western WY. It should remain warm through Friday
afternoon east of the Continental Divide as it would be on the east
side of the trough until Friday night. What to say about this
weather system/trough....well model guidance is certainly depicting
an unusual progression/evolution of this trough from this weekend
into next week. As it moves into the region it elongates all the way
down to Mexico, with one area of mid-level energy splitting into two
primary areas of mid-level energy that would go north and south of
WY. If this does in fact occur, then most (if not all) precip would
fall across the northwestern half of the forecast area. Beyond this
weekend model guidance is depicting an abnormal weather pattern that
could result in some interesting weather for the middle part of the
country (possibly as far west as WY). Won`t get into specifics as
the details are highly uncertain at this point in time.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 954 PM MST Tue Nov 12 2024

Most snow showers have departed, with only a few lingering
showers at KCPR. These should be out of the region by 08Z, with
quickly clearing skies. Most places willb e clear overnight, but
low clouds on mountains will still bring mountain obscuration
around KJAC overnight. Some fog formation is possible at
KBPI/KPNA tonight after 08Z, but the signal is not strong, so
only using VCFG for the time being. Winds for most locations
Wednesday remain light, except for KCPR seeing gusty southwest
winds gusting 25 to 30kts during the afternoon. A dense high
cirrus deck sweeps by late afternoon into the evening, but no
precip or near sfc aviation issues expected.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rowe
AVIATION...Straub