Worland, Wyoming 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

065
FXUS65 KRIW 090410
AFDRIW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
1010 PM MDT Tue Oct 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and dry conditions across the Cowboy State today.
  Wildfire smoke will linger across central and western basins.

- Temperatures nearly 15 to 20 degrees above normal for the
  second half of the week with many record highs in jeopardy.

- Little to no chances for precipitation through the week with
  above normal temperatures and dry conditions prevailing into
  the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1233 PM MDT Tue Oct 8 2024

Above normal warm temperatures and dry conditions will continue
today as high pressure dominates over the region. Wildfire smoke
from the Pack Trail Fire remains an issue across many portions of
central and eastern Wyoming. Air quality alerts have been reissued
through tomorrow afternoon as smoke continues to stagnate over areas
like the Wind River Basin and Jackson Hole. Highs today are expected
to range from the mid to upper 70s east of the Divide and low 70s
west of the Divide. A weak disturbance looks to move to the south of
the state today but impacts will remain well out of the area.
However, there is a non-zero chance for a virga shower in the far
southwestern portion of the CWA this afternoon/evening.

High pressure will prevail across the region throughout the week
with the CWA staying in the northern fringe. This means conditions
will be warm and dry while keeping any precipitation out of the
area. However, winds may increase at times during the week as weak
disturbances move to the north of the state. These winds will create
near elevated fire weather conditions at times as min RH values are
forecast to be around 15% at times throughout the week. Temperatures
are expected to gradually warm through the week with highs in the
low to mid 80s east of the Divide for the second half of the week.
Models currently show these locations having a 30-60% chance of
seeing highs of at least 80 starting Wednesday. West of the Divide
will see above normal temperatures as well with highs in the 70s by
midweek. Overall, these highs look to be nearly 15 to 20 degrees
above normal with daily record highs possibly in jeopardy.

Models have shown a disturbance move across the PACNW by the end of
the week. Unfortunately, recent model trends have shifted this
disturbance away from our CWA. Current impacts look to be very
minimal with very little to no precipitation as a result. One thing
to monitor is the recent development by models showing this
disturbance slow down lingering over the western Great Basin through
the weekend. Depending on what this disturbance does impacts may
very so it will be worth monitoring as we near the weekend. Overall,
cooler temperatures and precipitation chances are looking very
unlikely at this time. Long range models continue to show these
warm and dry conditions persist with daily highs and lows nearly
10 degrees above normal through mid October. Unless we see a
major shift in the weather pattern the remainder of the month is
looking to be much of the same.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1010 PM MDT Tue Oct 8 2024

It remains dry with mostly clear skies through the TAF period as a
ridge remains overhead. This will keep conditions VFR through the
TAF period, unless smoke impacts terminals. KJAC is the most likely
(80%) to be impacted by smoke with reduced VIS. Timing will be in
the morning once again, from 12Z-19Z/Wed. VIS will drop to MVFR/IFR
during this timeframe at KJAC and improve Wednesday afternoon as a
southwest wind around 10 knots will push it north up the Jackson
Valley.

Smoke is possible (20-40%) at all terminals east of the Continental
Divide Wednesday afternoon. Wind will stay just below 10 knots
across the area through Wednesday evening, but will increase
Wednesday afternoon.

Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for
the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Air Quality Alert until 1 PM MDT Wednesday for WYZ007-009>011-
013-015>018-020-022.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dziewaltowski
AVIATION...Rowe