Waukesha, Wisconsin 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

687
FXUS63 KMKX 142115
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
315 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures are expected to remain above normal through
  early next week with daily highs in the mid 50s to upper 50s.

- Next chance of rain looks to be later Saturday/Sunday into early
  next week. Gusty winds along with cooler temperatures will
  accompany this system.

- Active pattern with precipitation chances and possibly even
  wintry weather for the middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 312 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

Tonight through Friday night:

While the surface low and upper-level trough continue to
gradually depart the area, lower ceilings on the backside are
progged to linger across southern WI tonight. This will help
keep temps a bit warmer with overnight lows dropping into the
40s and into the upper 40s. There will be a potential for
western areas to cool off a bit more if the leading edge of the
subsidence form the incoming surface high helps break up the
clouds a bit. However, confidence remains lower and have leaned
toward the warmer lows for now.

Otherwise, drier conditions are expected for Friday as high
pressure slides across the middle Mississippi River Valley and
into the Great Lakes. Upper-level ridge axis will build across
the region at the same time and result in milder/above normal
temps and light winds. The main question will be is if the cloud
cover will clear for Friday or not. Some models (RAP and HRRR)
suggest enough low-level moisture will linger and keep the
blanket of clouds around which would tamp down temps a bit more
in the lower 50s to upper 40s, but if there are some breaks
aided by the subsidence from the high/ridge then could see
temps creep into the mid to even upper 50s as suggested by the
spread between other HREF members as well as GFS soundings. So
will be something to keep an eye on for Friday and how long it
may last as this will be the primary driver on temps.

Wagner

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 312 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

Saturday through Thursday:

High pressure and upper-level ridge axis will gradually slide
east on Saturday bring a return of southerly flow. Meanwhile the
upstream shortwave trough trekking across the northern Plains
will follow right behind it. Accompanying low pressure looks to
lift across the Dakotas through the day Saturday and into MN
overnight Saturday into Sunday. While the bulk of the day will
be dry even with the leading edge of WAA, the increasing rain
chances arrive as early as Saturday evening ahead of the cold
front. While there is still some debate on timing this forcing
and moisture will arrive and impact our CWA, still looking at a
quick shot of rain either saturday evening or overnight/early
Sunday.

Otherwise, the main focus in the extended shifts toward the
active pattern beginning early next week. While there continues
to be run to run model differences, the consensus shows for an
active pattern. Early half of the work week long range models
are coming into a consensus with a shortwave trough lifting
across the Plains and weakening into the Upper-Midwest. This
would bring another shot at rain with the early week system.
Behind this early week system, models are hinting at colder air
to dig across the central CONUS as a deepening longwave trough
develops. This mid week system will need to be monitored as this
could bring our first bout of wintry weather. However, there is
a lot of model discrepancy between the GEFS and ENS camps this
far out and a wide range of possibilities, but it will need to
be monitored over the coming days.

Wagner

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 312 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

Ceilings are improving slightly with a mix of IFR and MVFR
ceilings as the low departs the area. Expecting to see these
lower ceilings persist through the evening and into the
overnight hours. However, as high pressure builds into the
region expecting ceilings heights to lift to MVFR and VFR level
by Friday morning. The question remains if the low-level clouds
will linger into Friday or clear out and at this time thinking
they should at the very least lift to VFR levels with the
potential for some breaks. If ceilings clear out overnight into
early Friday morning, then there would be a potential to see
some fog develop as well, mainly for inland, western terminals.
Otherwise, expect light northwesterly winds to become variable
tonight through Friday with the incoming high pressure system.

Wagner

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 312 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

Low pressure continues to track east-northeast into southern MI
this evening. Lighter northerly winds persist across the lake
as high pressure quickly builds in behind it tonight through
Friday. Light northwesterly winds continue through much of the
day Friday as the high tracks just south of the Lake Michigan
through Saturday. An additional low pressure system is progged
to develop and lift across the Dakotas and northern MN later
Saturday into Ontario Sunday. This will bring stronger
southwesterly winds ahead a weak cold front across the lake for
the end of the weekend. Likely to see small craft conditions
during this time. Looking at stronger more northwesterly winds
for early next week with a more active pattern through the
middle of the week and marine headlines may be needed.

Wagner

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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