Madison, Wisconsin 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

275
FXUS63 KMKX 150349
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
949 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures are expected to remain above normal through
  early next week with daily highs in the mid 50s to upper 50s.

- Next chance of rain looks to be later Saturday/Sunday into early
  next week. Gusty winds along with cooler temperatures will
  accompany this system.

- Active pattern with precipitation chances and possibly even
  wintry weather for the middle of next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 949 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

Localized bands of drizzle continues over ern WI and within the
cyclonic flow of the departing low pressure area now over Lake
Erie. The low level moisture and stratus is expected to remain
in the boundary layer and below the strengthening subsidence
inversion through Friday as upper ridging builds into the
region.

Gehring

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 312 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

Tonight through Friday night:

While the surface low and upper-level trough continue to
gradually depart the area, lower ceilings on the backside are
progged to linger across southern WI tonight. This will help
keep temps a bit warmer with overnight lows dropping into the
40s and into the upper 40s. There will be a potential for
western areas to cool off a bit more if the leading edge of the
subsidence form the incoming surface high helps break up the
clouds a bit. However, confidence remains lower and have leaned
toward the warmer lows for now.

Otherwise, drier conditions are expected for Friday as high
pressure slides across the middle Mississippi River Valley and
into the Great Lakes. Upper-level ridge axis will build across
the region at the same time and result in milder/above normal
temps and light winds. The main question will be is if the cloud
cover will clear for Friday or not. Some models (RAP and HRRR)
suggest enough low-level moisture will linger and keep the
blanket of clouds around which would tamp down temps a bit more
in the lower 50s to upper 40s, but if there are some breaks
aided by the subsidence from the high/ridge then could see
temps creep into the mid to even upper 50s as suggested by the
spread between other HREF members as well as GFS soundings. So
will be something to keep an eye on for Friday and how long it
may last as this will be the primary driver on temps.

Wagner

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 312 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

Saturday through Thursday:

High pressure and upper-level ridge axis will gradually slide
east on Saturday bring a return of southerly flow. Meanwhile the
upstream shortwave trough trekking across the northern Plains
will follow right behind it. Accompanying low pressure looks to
lift across the Dakotas through the day Saturday and into MN
overnight Saturday into Sunday. While the bulk of the day will
be dry even with the leading edge of WAA, the increasing rain
chances arrive as early as Saturday evening ahead of the cold
front. While there is still some debate on timing this forcing
and moisture will arrive and impact our CWA, still looking at a
quick shot of rain either saturday evening or overnight/early
Sunday.

Otherwise, the main focus in the extended shifts toward the
active pattern beginning early next week. While there continues
to be run to run model differences, the consensus shows for an
active pattern. Early half of the work week long range models
are coming into a consensus with a shortwave trough lifting
across the Plains and weakening into the Upper-Midwest. This
would bring another shot at rain with the early week system.
Behind this early week system, models are hinting at colder air
to dig across the central CONUS as a deepening longwave trough
develops. This mid week system will need to be monitored as this
could bring our first bout of wintry weather. However, there is
a lot of model discrepancy between the GEFS and ENS camps this
far out and a wide range of possibilities, but it will need to
be monitored over the coming days.

Wagner

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 949 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

Localized drizzle and Cigs below 1 kft will continue into the
early morning hours over ern WI before ending. Otherwise
widespread MVFR Cigs well into Fri with some scattering of
clouds especially over south central WI for Fri afternoon. Areas
of MVFR Cigs may linger into Fri nt.

Gehring

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 949 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

Low pressure around 29.9 inches near Detroit this evening will
continue to move away while a weak ridge of high pressure over
Minnesota and Iowa will move across Lake Michigan Friday night.
Light to modest northerly winds will continue tonight and Friday
then light and variable Friday night.

An additional low pressure system is forecast to develop and lift
across the Dakotas and northern MN later Saturday and into
Ontario on Sunday. Thus breezy southerly winds will develop on
Saturday becoming southwest on Sunday. A cold front will then
shift winds to west to northwest Sunday night.

Wagner

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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