Madison, Wisconsin 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

501
FXUS63 KMKX 130134
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
834 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Additional chances for more scattered showers and isolated
  thunderstorms on Friday.

- Aside from an isolated storm or two on Saturday, trending
  drier. Sunday, a line of showers and thunderstorms may
  progress west to east across southern Wisconsin (30 to 50
  percent chance).

- Chances for showers and thunderstorms continue through midweek
  as southern Wisconsin remains in a favorable pattern.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 834 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

The sfc-925 mb cold front has shifted wwd to the MS River early
this evening. One shower was able to drift nwd through wrn
Green County before dissipating. Additional convection over far
wrn WI and ne IA is expected to remain to the west tonight. A
west to east lobe of 500 mb vorticity will shift ewd from nrn
MO, nrn IL into the nrn Ohio River Valley. No precipitation is
expected from this feature as it will remain to the south.

The front may return to far srn WI tomorrow afternoon as a
trough of low pressure moves from ern SD to srn MN and wrn IA,
and weak low pressure moves from MO to srn IL. 20-30 percent
chances for showers and storms are forecast.

Gehring

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 400 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Tonight through Friday night:

Isolated showers possible across central Wisconsin this
afternoon into this evening, with isolated showers and perhaps
an isolated thunderstorm developing across southwestern
Wisconsin this evening, pushing eastward into the late
overnight hours. Otherwise, expect easterly breezes through
tonight, with northeast winds near Lake Michigan. Lows in the
upper 50s. Northeast winds will build waves to around 4 ft
tonight, leading to high swim risk across Sheboygan, Ozaukee,
Milwaukee, and Racine Counties. Life threatening waves and
currents are expected. Stay out of the water and away from
dangerous areas like piers and breakwalls. Waves diminish early
Wednesday morning.

Easterly winds continue through Friday, keeping temperatures
lower near Lake Michigan and even inland through the Kettle
Moraine, with highs in the 60s near the Lake, in the 70s along
the Kettle Moraine, and in the low 80s farther inland. Isolated
to scattered showers and storms (15 to 30 percent chance)
develop into the afternoon hours Friday across far southern
Wisconsin, with more isolated activity going into central
Wisconsin (10 to 15 percent chance). Main concern with these
cells would be lightning, with minimal severe potential due to
a lack of instability (CAPE less than 800 J/kg) and
organization (0 to 6 km shear of 25 to 35 kt).

Friday night, convection in the northern Plains will propagate
eastward and primarily affect northern to central Wisconsin,
with some isolated showers and storms possible across southern
Wisconsin. Expect lows in the upper 50s to low 60s.

MH

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 400 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Saturday through Thursday:

Long range pattern remains quite zonal, with embedded shortwaves
propagating west to east through the flow. Slight ridging is
available across the central U.S., with the jet stream riding
across the southern Canadian Prairies. Placement of
thunderstorms day to day through the extended forecast period
will largely depend on the placement of previous time frame
thunderstorms, primarily depending on LLJ dynamics in the
northern to central Plains and the lingering upper level low in
the Ohio Valley. Kept NBM PoPs due to this uncertainty (20 to 40
percent chance most days). Current timeframe of most confidence
is Sunday, with a shortwave propagating eastward through the
flow into central Wisconsin invigorating leftover convection
from the apex of the LLJ in the northern Plains. This would lead
to a line of thunderstorms progressing west to east, but
confidence in placement is low.

Pattern begins to break down into Tuesday as surface low
pressure develops in the lee of the Colorado Rockies and lifts a
warm front through the Upper Midwest, allowing for a focal point
of convection by Wednesday as low pressure ejects northeastward
(PoPs of 50 to 70 percent). Low pressure continues eastward into
Thursday, with all major models indicating southern Wisconsin in
the warm sector at this time, potentially bringing the potential
for a line of storms along the cold front. Will continue to
monitor as this event draws closer.

MH

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 834 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

VFR conditions tnt then areas of MVFR Cigs developing during the
Fri AM daylight hours, mainly north of Madison. The MVFR Cigs
will transition to 3.5-4.0 kft during the afternoon. The
remainder of srn WI will see Cigs of 4-5 kft.

Gehring

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 400 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Northeasterly winds will build waves of 3 to 5 ft in southern
Wisconsin nearshore regions north of Wind Point tonight, with a
Small Craft Advisory in effect from 7 PM CDT tonight to 6 AM CDT
Friday.

High pressure centered over the Hudson Bay will keep winds
primarily northeasterly through the weekend, while low pressure
over the northern Plains keeps a stationary front across far
southern Lake Michigan. Winds remain light and variable south of
the front. A few thunderstorms may develop across northern Lake
Michigan tonight as low pressure in the Plains makes its
closest approach.

Weak low pressure will then develop in the Ohio Valley on
Saturday, moving eastward and weakening into Sunday. A line of
thunderstorms may develop Sunday afternoon and progress eastward
into Sunday night and Monday morning. Chances for thunderstorms
then continue into midweek as Hudson Bay high pressure weakens.

MH

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Beach Hazards Statement...WIZ052-WIZ060-WIZ066-WIZ071 until 6
     AM Friday.

LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645 until 6 AM Friday.

&&

$$

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