Madison, Wisconsin 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

975
FXUS63 KMKX 240326 AAA
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
926 PM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures continue to trend well above normal through the
  end of the week.

- Chances (about 30 to 50 percent) for light rain or drizzle in
  southeast Wisconsin Wednesday late afternoon/evening, with
  rain likely (about 50 to 70 percent chances) area wide
  Christmas night.

- Very slight concern for freezing rain toward central WI
  Christmas night.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 926 PM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

High clouds spreading overhead this evening and also a light
northwest breeze are helping to keep temperatures from falling
quickly. Lows will still head into the lower-mid 20s toward
central WI, and in the upper 20s for the rest of srn WI
overnight.

Cronce

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 200 PM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

Tonight through Wednesday night:

Quiet tonight into the day Wednesday as large scale ridging and
surface high pressure remain overhead. However late in the day
Wednesday we will start to see some embedded shortwave energy
slide through southern WI in addition to some low level WAA.
While midlevel moisture will be limited the expectation is for
the midlevels to gradually moisture as precip falls through the
column. Late Wednesday afternoon we should start to see some
showers to the west moreso associated with the low level WAA but
will likely be lighter. As this feature slides east the chances
will gradually increase and become a bit more widespread.
Generally CAMs show a scattered nature to the precip thus we
will keep PoPs limited to 30-50% at this time. Precip is also
expected to be all rain.

Precip will push out late Wednesday night as drier low level air
swings back in fairly quickly behind the system.

Kuroski

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 200 PM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

Christmas Day through Tuesday:

Strong high pressure passing by to the north of the region
Christmas Day should bring quiet weather with increasing
northeast to east winds. Mild high temperatures in the middle to
upper 30s are anticipated.

The 500 mb ridge axis shifts across the region and flattens out
somewhat Thursday night into Friday. There are weak vorticity
maxima that shift east through the region at times during this
period. There is some weak warm air advection in the low levels
Thursday night into Friday morning, helping to moisten and
saturate this layer per area forecast soundings. During this time,
the middle to upper levels remain fairly dry, negating any ice
crystal formation.

Thus, the precipitation types that occur Thursday night into
Friday morning will depend on the surface temperatures. The modest
warm air advection should allow for temperatures to slowly rise
Thursday night into Friday morning. Any potential for light
freezing rain or drizzle probably would occur later Thursday night
in far northern portions of the area, where temperatures will be
the slowest to rise above freezing. Mainly light rain is expected
otherwise during this period.

For now, will maintain a short period of a wintry mix in far
northern portions of the area later Thursday night, then change to
mainly rain Friday morning. Any light freezing rain/drizzle would
cause slick roads for holiday travelers, so will be keeping an eye
on this period for potential messaging.

Any precipitation should move out of the area by Friday afternoon,
with mild highs in the upper 30s northeast to the middle 40s south
expected in the afternoon. 500 mb cluster analysis and another
round of warm air advection suggests the ridge will remain just
east of the area and will help keep the mild temperatures into
Saturday. Highs into the 40s are anticipated.

Cluster analysis at 500 mb then favors a closed low shifting
southeast through the region Sunday into Monday, with a strong
cold front moving through later Saturday night. This will bring
strong cold air advection on gusty northwest winds behind the
front into Monday night. Temperatures should drop below seasonal
normal values during this period, with wind chills dropping below
zero by Sunday night. Temperatures may modify into the rest of
next week, though uncertainty rises with larger spreads in
ensemble temperatures.

Wood

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 926 PM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

High clouds are expected overnight under a light and variable
breeze. Winds will come around to the east-southeast Wed
morning, and there is a chance that some low clouds could
develop over Lake Michigan and spread inland through the day.
Confidence is not high, so just hinted at the cloud bases
potentially around 3000 ft with a SCT in the TAF for now.

Look for MVFR ceilings with drizzle or light rain to spread in
from the southwest late Wednesday afternoon and evening. IFR
cigs will be possible, especially toward the IL border.

Cronce

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 200 PM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

Northwest winds this afternoon with turn more easterly tonight
and southeasterly into Wednesday, as high pressure swings
through tonight. Winds turn back northerly later Wednesday night
as another high pressure system swings through south central
Canada. Winds turn back easterly as the high pushes east
through Christmas day. Southeast winds expected Thursday
night/Friday with a weak low pressure system passes likely south
of the Lake Friday. Light and variable winds behind the system.
Thursday night into Friday may be a bit breezy with Small Craft
conditions expected for a period.

The next best chance for gales is early next week Sunday through
Monday with increasing chances, with high higher end gales
possible as well. This will be a result of a weak low passing
through with strong high pressure system impinging from the
west causing a strong pressure gradient and thus strong
northwest winds.

Kuroski

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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