La Crosse, Wisconsin 7 Day Weather Forecast
Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation
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NWS Forecast for 2 Miles SW La Crosse WI
National Weather Service Forecast for:
2 Miles SW La Crosse WI
Issued by: National Weather Service La Crosse |
Updated: 12:30 am CST Nov 15, 2024 |
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Overnight
Mostly Cloudy
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Friday
Becoming Sunny
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Friday Night
Partly Cloudy
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Saturday
Partly Sunny
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Saturday Night
Chance Showers then Mostly Cloudy
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Sunday
Mostly Sunny
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Sunday Night
Mostly Clear
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Monday
Mostly Sunny then Showers Likely
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Monday Night
Showers
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Lo 36 °F |
Hi 53 °F |
Lo 37 °F |
Hi 53 °F |
Lo 43 °F |
Hi 52 °F |
Lo 31 °F |
Hi 52 °F |
Lo 43 °F |
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Overnight
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Mostly cloudy, with a low around 36. Calm wind. |
Friday
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Partly sunny, then gradually becoming sunny, with a high near 53. Calm wind. |
Friday Night
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Partly cloudy, with a low around 37. Calm wind becoming south around 6 mph after midnight. |
Saturday
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Partly sunny, with a high near 53. South wind 6 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. |
Saturday Night
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A 30 percent chance of showers before midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 43. South wind 6 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. |
Sunday
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Mostly sunny, with a high near 52. West wind 5 to 9 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. |
Sunday Night
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Mostly clear, with a low around 31. Light and variable wind. |
Monday
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Showers likely after noon. Partly sunny, with a high near 52. Light southeast wind becoming east 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. |
Monday Night
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Showers. Low around 43. East wind 11 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. |
Tuesday
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Showers likely, mainly before noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 55. East wind 8 to 10 mph becoming southwest in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. |
Tuesday Night
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A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 36. West wind around 8 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. |
Wednesday
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A 40 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 43. West wind 7 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. |
Wednesday Night
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A 40 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 32. North wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. |
Thursday
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A 40 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 41. North wind around 11 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. |
Forecast from NOAA-NWS
for 2 Miles SW La Crosse WI.
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Weather Forecast Discussion
954
FXUS63 KARX 150344
AFDARX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
944 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Mostly dry conditions and warmer temperatures (high
temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above normal). Some low rain
chances (20 to 40%) for parts of Wisconsin on Saturday night.
- Weather pattern turns more active for next week with rain
likely, potential for accumulating snow, and colder air.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 159 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024
Today - Sunday: Above Normal Temperatures, Rain Chances?
Amplified shortwave ridging builds in on Friday and lasts into
Saturday. Behind this ridge is a shortwave trough and associated
cold front that is forecasted to move into the Upper Midwest later
on Saturday. While the majority of the precipitation will fall to the
north of our CWA, there is a disjointed frontogenesis band roughly
between 600 and 700mb. PWATS increase to near 1" ahead of this band.
Despite this moisture tap and associated lift, there are
discrepancies on if rain occurs or not. The deterministic GFS and
GEFS members favor a mostly dry solution with some spotty showers
popping up to our east. The ECMWF and most (~70%) EPS members favor
more spotty precipitation across Wisconsin. The NBM has latched onto
this and produced 20 to 50% PoPs across Wisconsin for Saturday
night with highest probabilities in central Wisconsin. Even
though the GFS and GEFS are not in favor of this solution, the
overall percentage of some spotty showers occurring makes sense
given the frontogenesis band and associated moisture. The one
question will be how deep in the column does saturation takes
place. If it remains aloft with the frontogenesis band then that
would limit chances of seeing some light rain. Regardless, if
some showers do develop, totals are expected to be light, less
than 0.1".
With the ridge in place, warmer temperatures will also be present
through the weekend. Even with that shortwave trough moving through,
ridging comes back for Monday and the warmer temperatures continue,
however depending on when the next storm system moves in, that could
play a role in keeping temperatures cooler. High temperatures will
be roughly 10 to 15 degrees above normal, which translates to highs
in the low to mid 50s.
Monday - Thursday: Active Weather Pattern with Rain, Snow?
A complex synoptic setup is on the horizon. Two separate shortwave
troughs, one that comes up from the desert southwest and another
that comes from the PacNW, will impact our area. As the desert
southwest shortwave trough moves towards the Upper Midwest, it will
weaken and then potentially get absorbed into the next
shortwave from the PacNW and becomes part of the parent longwave
trough. As these troughs merge together, there is some signal
that the parent longwave trough slows down its easterly progress
or even retrogrades.
When looking at ensemble guidance, the majority (~85%) support this
complex setup. The other 15% support a more progressive wave pattern
which would limit precipitation and cold air for the area. The
differences in the other ensembles revolve around where exactly a
merger occurs or where the parent longwave trough sets up. About 35%
of ensembles have the trough situated right over the central Plains
and the other 50% has it slightly set up to our east in the Ohio
River Valley. Both set ups would bring an active weather pattern to
the area.
The first storm on Monday afternoon through Tuesday will bring rain
into the area. There is still a portion of ensembles (about 30 to
60%) that bring accumulating snow to the forecast area during the
midweek with the following storm. At the moment the GEFS
members show the higher probabilities of accumulating snow
whereas the CMCE and EPS members show roughly a 30 to 50%
chance. Another item to note is that with a deepening trough
over the area, colder temperatures are expected towards the
middle of the week. How cold we get is going to be dependent on
on deep that trough gets and how far south the cold Canadian air
can get.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 939 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024
MVFR stratus continues across the area late this evening with
this expected to affect LSE and RST until after sunrise Friday.
That said, forecast confidence is low, particularly at RST, as
the western edge of this stratus has been eroding a bit faster
than expected but guidance continues to suggest this rate of
erosion should slow with MVFR ongoing overnight. Have gone with
this solution, but amendments may be needed if ongoing trends
continue.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Cecava
AVIATION...Ferguson
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