Eau Claire, Wisconsin 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

256
FXUS63 KMPX 110410
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1110 PM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heavy rain threat begins Wednesday night for southern
  Minnesota.

- Heavy rain threat expands northward to include central
  Minnesota & western WI Thursday into Saturday morning.

- Active weather pattern with precipitation chances every 2 to 3
  days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

Goes imagery this afternoon highlights an area of elevated
wildfire smoke across eastern MN & western WI. An area of mid-
level cloud cover in western MN will move across eastern MN this
afternoon. It`s a rather pleasant Summer day for most of us
with temperatures in the 70s & 80s with a few 90s in far W MN.
High temperatures will come in a little bit cooler for though in
west central WI, in the upper 70s vs 80. Today`s front will
stall across the Upper Mississippi valley & will act as focal
point for several rounds of precipitation Wednesday through
Saturday morning. Mid-level FGEN will begin to tick upwards on
Wednesday. This will lead to the formation of a narrow band of
showers across southern Minnesota tonight into early Wednesday
morning. Additional showers develop along the stationary
boundary Wednesday afternoon. A few thundershowers will be
possible along the I-90 corridor. Latest CAMS highlight a
corridor of 1000- 2000 j/kg MLCAPE gradient across NW Iowa
Wednesday afternoon. These storms look to remain south of our
southern MN counties with any strong/severe storms further SW in
SD/IA.

For Thursday, the quasi-stationary boundary will gradually lift
north and usher in a broader area of stratiform precipitation
during the day. Showers will lift northeast throughout the day
with the steadiest rain occurring Thursday night into Friday as
an inverted trough moves into I-90 corridor. Another shortwave
will push into the Dakotas that will lead to an uptick in
moisture advection along the LLJ. For Friday, the main event
will unfold as widespread moderate to heavy rain will fall
across the southern half of Minnesota & western Wisconsin. The
heaviest QPF appears to fall in the WPC day 3 Slight Risk ERO
area along the I-90 corridor & up towards the Twin Cities Metro
& back west to the SD border. The QPF "bullseye" in non-US
ensemble guidance has had a steady northerly trend over the past
few runs & shouldn`t be ignored. The GEFS remains the
driest/southern most outlier but even the GEFS solution looks
like a proper widespread rain event with most locations hitting
1 inch by Saturday morning. It`ll be interesting to see what the
CAMS output as we get deeper into their range of usefulness.
Overall, confidence is high that we`ll see a broad area of 1 to
2" inches by Saturday morning. As of right now there doesn`t
appear to be any significant river flooding concerns either,
which is great news.

Saturday will see a brief break from the wet pattern as a wedge
of high pressure slides into the upper MS valley. Highs will
feel cool, only in the upper 60s and lower 70s, but it doesn`t
last long. The sfc high moves eastward and warm return flow will
allow temperatures to rebound into the upper 70s and lower 80s.
PoPs gradually increase Sunday into Monday with the best signal
for another round of rain coming Monday afternoon. There is
still quite a bit of uncertainty with how quick we`ll saturate
the lingering dry air from the Canadian sfc high & how strong
low level moisture transport will be. Because of that
uncertainty, the NBM has nearly continuous 40% PoPs from Sunday
through Tuesday, which is basically climatology for mid June.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1102 PM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

Mainly VFR conditions expected throughout this TAF duration but
it`s the timing of any potential SHRA/RA that is the trickiest
part of this TAF duration. KMPX radar has depicted echoes from
around the Madison MN area to near Albert Lea MN, but there has
also been a couple lightning strikes and public reports of SHRA
around MKT so have added VCSH to RWF-MKT given the deep dry air
that will make it problematic for precip to reach the ground.
There are better signs for showers moving into the area, mainly
south of I-94, for Wednesday afternoon so have maintained precip
mention at that time, with best chances at RWF-MKT-MSP. Chances
will be maintained going into Wednesday evening. Winds will
gradually shift from W to N to NE through the period but speeds
are expected to run 10kts or less. No TS/CB advertised this
period, but a stray rumble of thunder or flash of lightning
cannot be ruled out Wednesday afternoon- evening.

KMSP...No issues through mid-afternoon Wednesday, with no
precipitation expected overnight and Wednesday morning. Chances
increase Wednesday afternoon for a few passing showers across
the MSP area but no CB/TS expected at this point. Winds 7kts or
less may have some varying wind directions into the early
morning hours then become N to NE overnight through Wednesday
evening with speeds 10kts or less.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...Mainly VFR. RA/TSRA/MVFR likely late, chc IFR. Wind E 10
kts.
FRI...RA/MVFR likely, chc TSRA/IFR. Wind E 10-15 kts.
SAT...Mainly VFR. Slgt chc P.M. RA/MVFR. Wind E 10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BPH
AVIATION...JPC