Eau Claire, Wisconsin 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

145
FXUS63 KMPX 240911
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
311 AM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gloomy Christmas Day with drizzle or freezing drizzle possible
  throughout the day leading to slick travel conditions.

- Mild temperatures continue through Saturday with a frontal
  passage leading to below normal temperatures Sunday into next
  week.

- Northwest winds gusting over 40 mph likely Saturday night into
  Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 311 AM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

Surface high pressure over the Great Lakes is bringing in warmer
and more moist air from the south this morning. This has
provided for fog and low stratus across the I-90 corridor.
Thermal and moisture profiles have also allowed for the DGZ to
get saturated in the area providing for some brief snow
flurries. With the lack of any real forcing though it will just
remain flurries. Drier air to the north of the I-90 corridor has
been keeping the low stratus and fog at bay. The moisture will
continue to slowly move north, but as sunrise approaches the
diurnal heating of the atmosphere will make it harder to reach
saturation. However once the sun sets and we start to cool this
all changes. Significant agreement among model guidance from
CAMs to coarser resolution deterministic models suggest ample
saturation in the lower atmosphere tonight into at least Christmas
Day. This saturation does not look deep, making it look much
more like a classic drizzle sounding. The question then moves to
surface temperatures as below freezing surface temperatures
would make this a freezing drizzle event. Expected cloud cover
during the day today will keep high temperatures mild and in the
30s. This means ground temperatures will not be able to warm
much during the day today, which favors freezing drizzle.
However the best chances for drizzle to occur is in southern and
western Minnesota where the snow pack is lighter and therefore
temperatures get a little warmer. Timing wise the first chance
for drizzle will be Wednesday night into early Thursday morning
as cooling diurnal temperatures lead to saturation in the
lowest 100 mb of the atmosphere. This saturation continues
through all of Christmas Day and doesn`t fully break until the
CAA arrives this weekend. So fairly high confidence on the
drizzle, but the questions are how widespread it gets and if it
will be below freezing at the surface as it falls. Still a fair
amount of spread here between models both in how widespread
drizzle gets and for the thermal profile. It will be close to
the freezing line, so this is a forecast that could change with
just an offset of a degree or two.

This could be a multi-day drizzle event. Not non-stop drizzle,
but a setup for on again off again drizzle Friday into even
parts of Saturday. This doesn`t fully clear out until the
frontal passage this weekend. Strong CAA along the back of this
frontal passage will bring with it stronger winds with gusts
over 40 mph expected. Temperatures will also fall taking us from
highs in the 30s through Saturday down into the teens Sunday.
This brings wind chills on Sunday down into the teens below
zero. High pressure moves in on Monday and the gusty winds come
to an end. The next chance for some precipitation looks to come
on Tuesday night. Thankfully in this cold air it would all fall
as snow.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1053 PM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

There is a small area of IFR/MVFR fog near the Minnesota/Iowa
border late this evening. This is expected to gradually shift
north through the early morning hours, mainly impacting RWF and
MKT for a few hours. Winds are light and variable to start the
period, slightly increasing out of the southeast during the day.
There is still some uncertainty with how far north a low level
stratus deck will spread from Kansas/Missouri, though it still
looks to impact the southern third of Minnesota at least. Once
that stratus sets in, light and variable winds throughout the
first 2-3k feet of the atmosphere will likely make it hard to
get rid of any stratus that makes its way north. A more
widespread area of dense fog is possible overnight, though
confidence in extent and impact is too low to include at this
time.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR, Chc MVFR/IFR with chc DZ/FZDZ late. Wind SE 5-10 kts.
FRI...VFR, chc MVFR/IFR early. Wind light/variable.
SAT...VFR, chc MVFR. Wind S 5-10 kts bcmg NW 10-15G25 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NDC
AVIATION...BED