Weirton, West Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

030
FXUS61 KPBZ 120525
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
125 AM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will keep the area mostly dry and warm through
Friday morning. Daily storm chances linger Friday through early
next week, with marginal flood concerns and low severe chances.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry and hot weather today.
- A low chance for isolated thunderstorms this
  afternoon/evening, mainly north of I-80.
---------------------------------------------------------------

Surface high pressure will keep dry and quiet weather in the
forecast for most of the area today. Smoke models continue to
indicate some near-surface smoke increasing through the morning
hours, but the main result will be hazy skies. An Air Quality
Alert is also in effect today as the result of this wildfire
smoke and increasing ozone concentrations under the subsidence
inversion.

A weak west/east frontal boundary is slowly sinking southwards
across Lake Erie this morning before becoming the possible focus
for a few isolated thunderstorms generally north of I-80 late this
afternoon and evening. CAMs are not very bullish about
firing convection along this front, but do initiate a few
isolated thunderstorms. Given sufficient shear and substantial
CAPE/DCAPE, cannot rule out a strong to severe storm if a core
is able to overcome the capping inversion.

Increasing warm/moist advection and rising heights will boost
afternoon temperatures into the mid/upper 80s across the region
as dewpoints push into the mid-60s. The Pittsburgh Urban Heat
Island and isolated pockets along the Ohio River stand a >50%
chance of hitting 90F, though this is generally lower elsewhere.
Minor/Moderate heat risk is forecast. Overnight temperatures
will fall into the upper 50s to mid 60s, about 5 degrees above
average. This should allow recovery time from daytime heat.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Warm with storm chances Friday and Saturday.
- Isolated flash flooding potential by Saturday.
----------------------------------------------------------------

By Friday, moisture advection at the surface and aloft ramps up
as a midwest wave concentrates a moisture pull from the Gulf.
This will result in increasing PWATs and convective activity.
Scattered storm development is expected. While flow aloft is
generally expected to be weak, NBM mean SBCAPE pushes 1000 J/kg
wile DCAPE is nearer 700 J/kg, which may support a marginal low
end downburst threat. In addition, PWATs pushing 1" to 1.5" will
push towards or above the 75th percentile of climatology. With
weak flow, this will also incite low chances of flash flooding.
Cumulative heat stress will also increase the coverage of
moderate heat risk, particularly Friday afternoon. Another warm,
moist night is in storm Friday night with additional moisture
and southerly flow.

The midwestern wave will gradually push towards the area,
keeping an unsettled pattern on Saturday. There is high
confidence that Saturday may be similar to Friday ahead of the
slow moving wave, though there is some indication that PWATs
will be higher (pushing towards or above the 90th percentile of
climatology), and DCAPE may be low as moisture continues to
increase in weak flow. This would lower severe threats, and
increase flash flooding threats.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Daily storm chances with flash flooding potential and low
  severe threats persist through early next week.
-------------------------------------------------------------------

By Sunday, the temperature spread and environmental conditions
are a bit more uncertain with timing uncertainty of the crossing
wave. In the slightly slower scenarios, Sunday may be in the
mid-to-low 80s with continued flooding and low severe threats.
In the slightly faster scenario, high temperature may top out in
the 70s with low flooding threats and even lower severe
potential.

Confidence in the relaxation of temperatures early next week
continues, but uncertainty grow by mid-week with a modest chance
for warming temperatures back to near/slightly-above average.
Spread in MaxTs is around 5-8 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure continues to be the dominant weather feature
maintaining VFR conditions with only some passing cirrus and
upper-level smoke expected. Into the day tomorrow, an inversion
will keep smoke closer to the ground, however, it is not
expected to impact visibility. Light and variable wind expected
overnight with light westerly wind expected through the day
tomorrow.

Outlook...
Weak disturbances within the upper flow may bring
increased chances for precipitation and associated restrictions
Friday afternoon into the weekend.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Milcarek
NEAR TERM...Rackley
SHORT TERM...Rackley
LONG TERM...Rackley/Milcarek
AVIATION...Shallenberger