Teays Valley, West Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

930
FXUS61 KRLX 090314
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1114 PM EDT Tue Oct 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and near seasonable for the work week, with some patchy
frost and river valley fog possible in the mornings. Next rain
chances not until early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1105 PM Tuesday...

The forecast remains on track, with temperatures having quickly
fallen this evening amid an arid boundary layer. Many of the
typical lowland valleys cold spots are already down into the low
to mid 40s, with some upper 30s in the mountain valleys.
Isolated subfreezing temperatures could occur in the typically
coldest mountain valleys of Pocahontas/Randolph counties
overnight. Otherwise, river valley fog develops again overnight
and will be dense in spots, but overall, fog is expected to be
slightly less widespread than last night, especially north,
given drier antecedent boundary layer conditions amid
increasing low-level flow.

As of 630 PM Tuesday...

Given afternoon mixing into drier air aloft, have updated
temperatures and dew points through tonight. This consisted of a
lowering of progged overnight temperatures towards 10th
percentile of central guidance across the typical valley
locations that undercut guidance under clear/dry atmospheric
conditions, translating into 30s across the mountains, with mid
30s to low 40s across the lowlands. With this in mind, did
issue a Frost Advisory for Pocahontas and southeast Randolph
county where confidence is highest in frost formation. Low dew
points across the area currently (generally low 30s to low 40s)
will allow for efficient radiational cooling following sunset
amid clear skies. Given such, cannot rule out the potential for
some patchy frost across the typically coldest valleys outside
of the Frost Advisory. H925-H850 mean layer flow picks up later
tonight across our northern zones, which should help to
largely mitigate any frost formation there. Thus, the best
potential outside of the Advisory for frost would be the
typically coldest valleys across southwest VA northeast towards
Elkins. Given the sparsity of occurrence, will forego issuing a
SPS to highlight this potential, but do have a mention in the
HWO. The rest of the forecast remains on track.

As of 135 PM Tuesday...

Key Points:
* Seasonable and dry both today and Wednesday.
* River valley fog and a few pockets of frost possible late
  tonight into early Wednesday morning.

High pressure sprawled across the central US brings dry weather and
seasonable temperatures to the Middle Ohio Valley and Central
Appalachians today, then temperatures are expected to dip into the
upper 30s to mid 40s overnight. Radiational cooling beneath mostly
clear skies should facilitate early morning fog development
along the river valleys. A few pockets of frost could also be
possible before daybreak on Wednesday; however, confidence in
frost formation and extent is not high.

After the brisk start to the day Wednesday, temperatures warm to
around normal once again. Daytime highs should range from upper 60s
to low 70s in the lowlands and mid 50s to upper 60s for the
mountains. Meanwhile, high pressure retains control overhead
allowing for another sunny and dry day.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 215 PM Tuesday...

High pressure will maintain dry weather across the CWA through
the period, though light N-NE`ly breezes will keep highs a few
degrees below normal despite the abundant sunshine. Wednesday
night lows will dip into the upper 30s to mid-40s for the
lowlands, with mid-30s and a fairly widespread frost expected
for Randolph and Pocahontas Counties. With high pressure
shifting directly overhead Thursday night, calm winds and low
dewpoints should allow for temps to drop even further. A freeze
is possible for at least some valleys in Pocahontas and Randolph
Counties, with frost elsewhere. At least patchy frost is also
possible for the rest of our mountain zones, as well as the
lowland zones north of I-64, in the few hours before and around
sunrise. Thursday night may well be the end of the growing
season for many of our mountain zones, and some of our lowland
zones will see at least their first frost.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1240 PM Tuesday...

An upper-level shortwave passing by to our south and a surface
front pushing south across the Great Lakes on Friday will help
to push the high pressure controlling our weather down into the
Southeast US. As a result, after any morning frost clears up
Friday morning, our weather will be turning warmer, especially
for the weekend. Highs on Friday will be upper 50s and 60s in
the mountains, and upper 60s to lower 70s in the lowlands. Most
of the CWA looks to be around 5 degrees warmer for the weekend.

However, the October warmth will be short lived, as a front
crossing on Sunday is likely to bring a potent temperature
change in its wake for the start of the next work week. Models
are a bit scattered on the moisture availability and timing of
any potential precip with this front, so POPs later Sunday into
Monday are limited to Chance at best for now. Highs on Monday
could be 15 degrees lower than Sunday for much of the CWA - 40s
to mid-50s in the mountains, and upper 50s to mid-60s in the
lowlands. And while it`s outside the official time frame of the
long-term forecast, here`s a heads up that if some precip
lingers in the mountains on Monday night or Tuesday, it could
fall as snow or a rain/snow mix, looking at the forecast temps
and the fact that the 540 thickness line may drop south of us.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 810 PM Tuesday...

Clear skies and VFR conditions at present will give way to some
restrictions later tonight as river valley fog develops across
portions of the region, but overall, coverage is expected to be
less than last night. At present, MVFR or worse restrictions
are anticipated at CRW/EKN late tonight (mainly after 9Z) into
early Wednesday morning. While not currently in the TAFs, some
brief restrictions at HTS/PKB near dawn w/ fog cannot entirely
be ruled out, but increasing low level flow keeps the
probability low enough to keep it out of the TAFs for the time
being. Any fog that does develop lifts/dissipates from ~
1230-1400Z. VFR conditions then prevail through the remainder of
the TAF period amid mostly clear skies.

Surface winds will generally go calm overnight. Light northwest
flow develops during the day on Wednesday, with afternoon
breezes of up to 15-20 kts possible across the north and near
the mountains (BKW/CKB/EKN/PKB), with gusts up to 25 kts in the
northern mountains.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium for fog tonight. Otherwise, high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Coverage and timing of fog early Wednesday
morning may vary from the forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                             WED 10/09/24
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EDT 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    L    L    L    M    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
IFR conditions possible in river valley fog each morning through
Friday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Wednesday for WVZ523-524-
     526.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FK/JLB/GW
NEAR TERM...JLB/GW
SHORT TERM...FK
LONG TERM...FK
AVIATION...GW