Teays Valley, West Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

110
FXUS61 KRLX 130636
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
136 AM EST Wed Nov 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry through Wednesday as high pressure traverses north of the area.
The next chance for widespread rain returns late Wednesday night and
Thursday. Dry again by late Friday. High pressure for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 135 AM Wednesday...

High level clouds will begin to filter into the region this morning
and gradually become more numerous as the day progresses. It will be
slightly warmer today with high temperatures across the lowlands in
the upper 50`s to low 60`s with the mountains in the mid to upper
40`s.

Sporadic strong wind gusts of 15-25 mph are possible near the
Beckley area and vicinity early this morning thanks to downslope.
Southeast winds should gradually increase early this morning through
Wednesday with gusts of 10-15 mph possible across the lowlands and
20-30 mph with isolated higher gusts possible in the mountains as
the next system begins its approach Wednesday night, bringing our
next chance at precipitation.

RH values could dip to the low 20% range this afternoon and combined
with somewhat gusty winds could enhance fire spread before
precipitation arrives late Wednesday night.

Attention then turns to the precipitation progged to enter the area
Wednesday night as the next low pressure system approaches. There is
concern that some freezing precipitation could impact the mountains
and higher terrain in the northeast as well as a large portion of
Pocahontas county as cold air is dammed against the mountains given
southeast surface flow, which could allow for some small amounts of
frozen precipitation, in this case freezing rain and even sleet, to
occur.

There is concern that given the strong elevated warm layer,
likely above freezing physical surface temperatures, strong surface
flow advecting warmer air into the area, and high likelihood of
significant cloud cover hindering lower temperatures, that freezing
rain or sleet may struggle to occur. Have decided to leave the
chance in for now since soundings support the possibility but trends
will need to be monitored as the event nears. Another potential
hindrance to any frozen precipitation is onset time. Model solutions
are still diverging on when the onset of any precipitation will be
early Thursday morning which could lead to temperatures becoming too
warm to support any frozen precipitation near the surface, but this
should become more clear as we get closer to the event.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 240 PM Tuesday...

Key Points:

 * A brief period of wintry precipitation will be possible along
   the West Virginia mountains Thursday morning before
   transitioning over to all rain in the afternoon.

 * Little to no accumulation is currently expected to occur.

A warm front sailing through the region Wednesday night will supply
enough of a warm nose along the higher terrain to promote a
brief period of freezing rain/wintry precipitation before
transitioning over to all rain by Thursday afternoon. Forecast
soundings denote the timeframe in particular to take shape
around 7 AM Thursday morning and remaining the case until around
midday, when warmer surface temperatures will yield the switch
over to all rain. Still unsure if any accumulation could be
acquired from this brief period of sub-freezing conditions, but
will continue to highlight for potential of a slippery morning
commute Thursday morning in the HWO.

Outside of this window of opportunity for winter weather,
elsewhere in the forecast area precipitation swinging in from
the west before dawn Thursday will fall as rain and will remain
the case through the valid short term period. The heaviest
QPF totals will be attached to a surface cold front controlled
by a disturbance pivoting through the Great Lakes region. This
will first venture through eastern Kentucky and southwest West
Virginia Thursday morning and slide into the Greenbrier Valley
through the course of the daylight hours. Post-frontal northwest
flow will continue to usher in plumes of lake-enhanced moisture
throughout the afternoon and evening Thursday before wrapping up
altogether during the predawn hours on Friday. Event total
rainfall amounts are projected to be around an inch in the
southern coalfields, becoming less across the northern half of
our forecast area.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 240 PM Tuesday...

The nearly stacked upper level disturbance that brings a brief
taste of wintry precipitation to the mountains on Thursday will
continue to dash eastward as we open up the long term forecast
period. H85 streamlines directed out of the north/northwest
continue to advertise lingering mountain showers, falling as
rain, throughout the day Friday and into the very early hours of
Saturday morning. We then switch gears back to high pressure for
the weekend, coupled with ridging aloft. Pressure height rises
attributed to this migrating ridge will yield a warming trend,
with Sunday afternoon highs projected to be 5 to 10 degrees
warmer than Saturday. An evolving disturbance looms for the
start of next week, with rain draped along a frontal boundary
encroaching late Sunday night into Monday morning.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1220 AM Wednesday...

VFR conditions will persist under mostly clear skies tonight,
while winds become calm to light and veer from northeast to an
east/southeast direction at the surface. Rather dry low-level
air should suppress fog formation, though a few patches aren`t
completely out of the question in some of the river valleys
early Wednesday morning. Decided to add LLWS to KCRW, KCKB, and
KEKN as well to account for strong winds above the surface
around 300ft and up until at least early this morning before
surface flow increases early Wednesday.

VFR conditions expected Wednesday through the TAF period but
some high level clouds could begin filtering into the region
ahead of the next frontal system poised to impact our area
Wednesday night. Otherwise expect gusty southeast winds at times
through Wednesday afternoon of 10-20 kts with higher gusts of
20-30 kts possible in the mountains, especially near KBKW and
KEKN.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Patchy fog could briefly reach a terminal
near daybreak Wednesday morning.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   WED 11/13/24
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
IFR conditions will be possible in occasional rain showers
Wednesday night and Thursday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEK/GW
NEAR TERM...28
SHORT TERM...MEK
LONG TERM...MEK
AVIATION...28