St. Albans, West Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

054
FXUS61 KRLX 230540
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1240 AM EST Mon Feb 23 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Aviation Update. Morning forecast package update coming soon.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Hazardous travel conditions are expected to develop as snow showers
  lead to accumulations this afternoon through Monday. Winds
  will become gusty tonight into Monday, and are likely to
  contribute to impaired visibilities in the higher elevations
  of the mountains. Minor impacts are anticipated across the
  eastern half of the forecast area, with moderate to major
  impacts possible for portions of the West Virginia mountains.

- 2) Cold temperatures and lingering breezes may prompt very
  cold wind chills to develop along the high elevations of the
  northeast mountains late Monday night into Tuesday morning.

- 3) A couple of mid to late week systems bring additional
  opportunities for precipitation.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A strengthening low-pressure system will track northward along
the Atlantic Coast this afternoon, deepening into a powerful
Nor`Easter by this evening. Concurrently, an upper-level trough
pushing in from the west will tighten the local pressure
gradient, driving strong, gusty west-northwest winds. This
favorable northwest flow will advect ample Great Lakes moisture
into the region, producing persistent and significant upslope
snow accumulations across the eastern mountains from this
afternoon through Monday.

There is a potential for development of snow bands across the
lowlands this afternoon through Monday. These snow bands can
produce intense bursts of heavy snow in a short period of time.
Gusty winds leading to blowing snow and visibility rapidly
falling to less than one-quarter mile may be possible. Wind
gusts up to 35 to 50 mph may be possible.

While hourly snowfall rates are generally expected to remain below 1
inch per hour, the extended duration of this event will yield
significant totals. Weather Prediction Center (WPC) Day 1
probabilities for 6+ inches range from 5080% across the central
Appalachians in West Virginia.

Our forecast snow accumulations range from 5 to 12 inches across
central and northern mountains, 3 to 6 inches across adjacent
western foothills, and 2 to 4 inches across the rest of the lowlands
including extreme southwestern VA.

Breezy conditions will overspread the region later today into
Monday, with wind gusts up to 50 mph possible in the higher
elevations of the northeastern mountains, and 20 to 25 mph across
the lowlands. The combination of strong winds and falling snow is
highly likely to reduce visibilities, creating hazardous travel
conditions. In addition, roads, and especially bridges and
overpasses, will likely become slick and hazardous. The hazardous
conditions could impact the Monday morning and evening commutes.

Winter Storm Warnings remains in effect for the West Virginia
mountains adjacent western foothills and portions of West
Virginia lowlands through Monday night.

A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for extreme Southwest
Virginia until Monday night.

Note: No changes have been made to the existing Winter Storm
Warning and Wind Advisory products.


KEY MESSAGE 2...
Strong CAA brings H850 temperatures to -15C by Monday night.
Expect very cold surface temperatures Monday night/Tuesday
morning. The combination of cold weather and lingering breezes
may produce very cold wind chill values, in the teens above zero
across the lowlands, ranging into the 10 below zero across
higher elevations of our northeast mountains.

Freezing of any wet surfaces may also allow black ice to develop
overnight. Cold or Extreme Cold headlines may be needed
especially along the higher elevations.


KEY MESSAGE 3...
The weather pattern remains active by mid-to-late week as a series
of shortwave troughs traverse the region. The initial wave will
cross the area Tuesday night into Wednesday, followed closely by a
secondary system Thursday into Thursday night.

Wave 1: Tuesday Night into Wednesday. The first shortwave will
introduce widespread precipitation across the local area, with
precipitation types heavily dependent on elevation, where a
potential for a wintry mix exists for the mountains and northern
lowlands, while primarily rain is expected across the central and
southern lowlands.

Wave 2: Thursday into Thursday Night. The subsequent wave will
spread another round of moisture across the forecast area. Rain is
forecast to remain the dominant precipitation type for the vast
majority of the region. A wintry mix may redevelop in common cooler
pockets across SE Ohio and northeastern mountains, as the second
system moves through.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
An evolving winter storm off the eastern seaboard and snow
showers streaming in from the Great Lakes will keep sub-VFR
flight conditions going through the majority of the TAF period.
While ceilings will stay consistently MVFR early this morning
in the lowlands and IFR along the spine of the Appalachians,
surface visibilities will remain erratic and based on where the
heaviest snow bands set up. Snow showers will steadily diminish
across the lower elevations by later in the day Monday, with
ceilings slowly lifting into low end VFR late in the evening
into the overnight hours. Enough low level moisture will
squeeze out MVFR ceilings along the mountains Monday night and
through the end of the TAF period.

Surface gusts at all TAF sites will be windy today due to the
ongoing winter weather. Gusts on the order of 20 to 25 knots
were included across the board today, with little to no
improvements within the valid TAF period. Winds along the higher
mountain zones will be elevated today due to the tightened
pressure gradient, resulting in gusts closer to 35 to 45 knots
at times today.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Intensity of snow restrictions could vary.
Timing of snow ending late this afternoon/evening may vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   MON 02/23/26
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    L    H    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
IFR conditions expected in snow across the mountains Monday
night into Tuesday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for WVZ008-
     013-014-017-019-020.
     Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM EST Tuesday for WVZ015-016-018-
     024>034-039-040-515>526.
     Wind Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for WVZ523-526.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for VAZ003-004.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ARJ
AVIATION...05