St. Albans, West Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

352
FXUS61 KRLX 030553
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
153 AM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A system serves up showers and thunderstorms at times through
the weekend, with flooding increasingly likely for the Mid-Ohio
Valley region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1235 AM Thursday...

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a cold front will push
into our area early this morning. A low level jet (currently 60
knots at 3000 feet near Charleston) will keep very strong winds
just off the surface this morning. There is concern that these
storms could mix these winds to the ground and produce damaging
wind gusts. Model soundings also show helicity values of 800 to
900 as the line hits our western counties with shear values of
50 to 60. Therefore, tornados are also a possibility. With
effective CAPE of 500 to 1000 in this area as well, some large
hail is possible.

The cold front will then stall over eastern Kentucky and West
Virginia today and tonight. Heating south of the front should
once again create conditions favorable for severe weather this
afternoon. The threat of flash flooding also increases. A couple
of meso models are showing some heavy precipitation getting into
northeastern West Virginia, although the majority are not. This
does lead to concerns that the Flood Watch may need to be
extended across the rest of northern West Virginia, but will
hold off for now until models are in better agreement.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 156 PM Wednesday...

Frontal boundary initially stalled out across the area early Friday,
should generally lift back north during the day. Heavy rain/storms
are looking likely early Friday along the Ohio River and North
Central WV in area of front. However, showers and storms will
continue to occur during the day Friday, but thinking is as we
progress into the late afternoon or evening hours, the bulk of
precipitation should generally be north of the Ohio River closer to
the front. Still looking at the potential for severe storms, mainly
north of the Ohio River on Friday, with a damaging wind threat
possible. By the time we get into Friday evening/night, the front
should have lifted well to our north, along with the axis of heavier
rainfall as waves of low pressure move along the front.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 140 PM Wednesday...

Key Point:
* Flooding concerns linger into early next week.

An unsettled pattern continues as a low pressure system moves into
the Great Lakes region and then migrates northeast on Saturday.
While drier conditions may creep in to southern and eastern portions
of the CWA during the afternoon, the best chances for precipitation
linger across southeast OH, northwest WV, and northeast KY. Rain and
thunderstorms overspread the area as a cold front approaches
Saturday night, then activity continues into Sunday night while the
front slowly trudges east.

During the first half of the work week, another low passes to the
north while an associated upper trough pivots overhead. Periods of
precipitation remain possible as this system crosses and potentially
sends another front across the area.

Flooding remains a concern, particularly across the western half of
the CWA where soils are already expected to be saturated from
previous rainfall. In addition to an initial risk of flash flooding
this weekend, runoff is expected to lead to rises on rivers, creeks,
and streams with potential for river flooding to persist through
early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 145 AM Thursday...

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a cold front will push
into our area early this morning, creating brief IFR conditions.
A low level jet (currently 60 knots at 3000 feet near
Charleston) will keep very strong winds just off the surface
this morning. There is concern that these storms could mix these
winds to the ground and produce damaging wind gusts. Tornados
and large hail are also possible. Behind the line, some rain
will create MVFR conditions for an hour or two. The line should
weaken some as it pushes eastward into West Virginia.

The cold front will stall over the area today and tonight. This
will create some MVFR clouds north of the front, with some areas
dropping to IFR tonight. Generally VFR clouds can be expected south
of the front. However, showers and thunderstorms at times will
create brief IFR conditions. Some thunderstorms this afternoon
south of the cold front could become severe.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium this morning, then low.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and intensity of restrictions with
showers and thunderstorms could vary. The location of the front
stalling could vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              THU 04/03/25
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    H    H    M    M    H    M    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
IFR conditions possible in showers and thunderstorms Thursday
night through Sunday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for WVZ005>011-014-017-019.
OH...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for OHZ066-067-075-076-
     083>087.
KY...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RPY/SL
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...RPY