Morgantown, West Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

009
FXUS61 KPBZ 131841
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
141 PM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Slight decrease in forecast confidence in the placement of any
snow bands, but the signal is still there on the backside of
the Wednesday, so confidence in bands actually forming has
increased. Timing of rain onset was delayed until Wednesday
morning.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Rain chances increase Wednesday.

2) Rain changes to snow late Wednesday into Wednesday evening,
followed by snow showers and much colder temperatures Thursday.

3) Colder than average temperatures continue into next week,
with periodic snow chances.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Rain chances will increase overnight with increasing moisture
and ascent in southwesterly flow ahead an approaching front.
Model soundings and 850 mb temperatures indicate the rain could
be mixed with snow across the Laurel Highlands and the higher
terrain areas of WV, and areas north of I-80.

Rain coverage will increase over the course of the morning,
becoming widespread by the afternoon as the cold front tracks
east across the Upper Ohio Valley region, and an upper trough
deepens just to our west across MI and IN. The front is progged
to cross the forecast area late morning and through the
afternoon, east of the ridges by evening.


KEY MESSAGE 2...

Cold advection behind the front and boundary layer flow
shifting to the NW should result in lake and terrain enhancement
overnight Wednesday night into Thursday. Moisture in the
dendritic growth zone becomes less than optimal rather quickly
for efficient snowfall, though a quick accumulation of snow,
reduced visibility, and temperatures in the 20s could result in
travel hazards in any heavier snow shower or band that develops.
It still appears the most likely area to see advisory level
snow would be across the higher terrain areas of WV and PA,
where current probabilities of 3 inches of snow or more are
around 50%. Areas north of I 80 could also approach these
accumulations, but this would be more localized and dependent on
where snow bands set up. For the rest of the area, generally
expecting around an inch or two of accumulation. Latest
ensembles show a 30-50% chance and 10-20% chance of an inch and
two inches respectively in the lowlands. Locally higher amounts
will be possible under any snow bands.

KEY MESSAGE 3...
Model ensembles indicate a longwave trough will persist across
much of the eastern CONUS into early next week. Individual
shortwaves rotating through the trough will keep periodic snow
chances and cold temperatures in the forecast for much of the
period. The coldest temperatures are expected Sunday into the
middle of next week as 850 mb temperatures drop.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES...

1) VFR through tonight then MVFR ceilings develop late night/early
tomorrow morning.

2) Gusty winds through this evening.

3) Rain expected tomorrow with a transition to snow during Wednesday
afternoon/evening. Short time period of rain/snow mix in
between.
------------------------------------------------------------

High pressure and dry air support VFR conditions through tonight.
Low pressure will cross north of the Great Lakes today,
strengthening the local pressure gradient and bringing 20-25kt
southwesterly gusts this afternoon/evening.

Overnight, winds will ease as ceilings begin to drop to MVFR
ceilings from north to south. The ensembles are also indicating that
ceilings along the ridges will drop simultaneously as the front
moves in from the northwest. There will be a brief period
before ceilings will drop to IFR by early Wednesday afternoon.

Rain showers will begin as MVFR restrictions develop. Early to mid-
afternoon on Wednesday (after IFR ceilings develop), there will be a
brief period of rain/snow mix before transitioning completely to
snow.

Outlook...
Wednesday night/early Thursday morning, there is the
chance for lake effect snow showers to develop following the
departure of the system. This will keep ceiling restrictions around
longer into Thursday.
&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...WM/88
AVIATION...Lupo