Huntington, West Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

900
FXUS61 KRLX 072116
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
516 PM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Possible MCS arrival this evening and crossing tonight. Active
weather persists through Monday night with showers and storms
at times. Period of drier weather returns midweek with high pressure.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 515 PM Saturday...

Key Point:

 * A Flash Flood Watch is now in effect for our north central counties
   of West Virginia from Sunday morning through Sunday evening.

Due to recent rainfall over portions of the area, soils are
very wet, susceptible to runoff. Moderate to heavy rainfall can
be expected with the upcoming shortwave overnight. Latest model
runs suggest precipitation will arrive to our west during the
predawn hours Sunday morning, and then spread northeast to
affect the watch area through Sunday evening.

Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams
and other low-lying and poor drainage areas. Previous forecast
remains on track.

As of 125 PM Saturday...Corrected...

Heavy rainfall, to the tune of 2 to 3.5 inches plus, resulted
in flash flooding in northeast portions of the forecast area,
especially Barbour county, where numerous roads were flooded
and many streams out of their banks across central portions of
the county. Flooding also occurred back into northern Upshur
County and the notorious Duck Creek in Washington County, Ohio.
The flood waters in northeast WV were beginning to recede.

With the surface cold front and mid/upper-level short wave
trough having moved out of the area, coverage of convection in
the still warm and moist post-frontal environment this afternoon
should remain limited to roughly the southeast half of the
forecast area, and what does stand up should be of minimal
impact save for a slow moving heavy downpour.

A mid/upper-level short wave trough tied to a convective complex
moving into the Tennessee Valley early this afternoon will move
across the area tonight, with widespread showers and embedded
thunderstorms. With associated PW values climbing as high as
1.8 inches, the Weather Prediction Center has upgraded the
excessive rainfall outlook to a slight risk throughout the area
for tonight.

The system will pull the front back north as a warm front to a
point, although the cool pool associated with the convective
complex will shunt or reverse its progress for a time overnight
into Sunday morning. The best chance for strong thunderstorms
is across far southern portions of the area overnight, where
strong low level west to southwest flow will develop south of
the warm front aloft. This is reflected via a marginal risk for
severe thunderstorms from the Storm Prediction Center for
tonight.

While the system pulls out Sunday morning, another mid/upper-
level short wave trough crossing in tandem with diurnal heating
is likely to spawn new shower and thunderstorm development
Sunday afternoon. With modest shear spreading north across the
area, and PW values still up around 1.5 inches or higher,
thunderstorms can become strong and heavy Sunday afternoon, as
reflected with a marginal risk from Storm Prediction Center and
marginal to slight excessive rainfall risk from the Weather
Prediction Center. These threats could diminish from the
southwest Sunday afternoon, depending upon the forward progress
of the short wave and slightly drier air moving in behind it.

Highs range in the lower to mid 80s across the area this
afternoon, and then are limited to around 80 or less Sunday
afternoon with more widespread clouds and precipitation. Lows
tonight range in the lower to mid 60s, upper 50s over the
higher ridges.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 300 PM Saturday...

Any lingering showers/storms early Sunday night are expected to
quickly dissipate given the loss of diurnal heating and mid-
level ridging moving overhead, leading to a relatively quiet
overnight amid seasonably warm temperatures (upper 50s to low
60s lowlands; mid 50s to low 60s mountains).

Another round of showers/storms is expected later Monday into
Monday night as an upper trough and associated cold front
approaches the region. Mixed layer CAPE values progged in the
1000 to 1500 J/kg range combined with bulk shear of 35-45 kts
results in the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms
later Monday into early Monday night. The main hazards are
damaging wind gusts, along with a slightly lower end threat for
large hail. Additionally, given rather weak low-level flow,
localized flash flooding will once again be possible,
particularly in areas impacted with heavy rainfall the past
couple days. Highs on Monday will generally range from the mid
70s to mid 80s, with lows Monday night in the mid 50s to low
60s.

The chance (20-40%) for showers and perhaps a few isolated
thunderstorms continues on Tuesday, but overall, will be much
drier, amid slightly cooler temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 300 PM Saturday...

Building/traversing high pressure results in dry weather across
the region on Wednesday/Thursday, with the next chance for rain
being later Friday and Saturday amid increasing moisture with
return flow. Seasonable high temperatures on Wednesday will
transition to above normal on Thursday/Friday amid a gradual
increase in humidity.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 125 PM Saturday...

Lifting of the morning MVFR stratocumulus and IFR stratus will
allow for a VFR afternoon and evening, save for BKW, where MVFR
stratocu persists. While a shower or thunderstorm may pop this
afternoon, coverage is expected to be too widely scattered to
encode into any of the TAFs.

The next disturbance will bring an increasing chance for
showers tonight, with thunderstorms also possible. The main
threat with this activity overnight into early Sunday morning
would be heavy rainfall. MVFR conditions should become
widespread overnight, with IFR at least on ceiling at BKW early
Sunday morning, and possible anywhere in heavy rainfall
overnight into Sunday morning.

While shower and thunderstorm coverage will decrease Sunday
morning, improvement will again be slow, especially on ceiling.
Furthermore, showers and thunderstorms are likely to start
refiring early Sunday afternoon, as yet another disturbance
approaches, this time in tandem with diurnal heating. This gives
rise to the potential for strong thunderstorm wind gusts, in
addition to heavy downpours.

Light northwest surface flow behind a cold front this afternoon
will become light and variable tonight, then light southeast as
the front returns as a warm front early Sunday morning, and
then light southwest southern sites HTS, CRW and BKW, early
Sunday afternoon, as the warm front pushes through. Light
northwest flow aloft this afternoon will become light and
variable tonight, light south overnight tonight, and then light
to moderate west to southwest across southern portions of the
area Sunday morning, as the warm front aloft pushes north.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of convection affecting any
terminal could vary. There may be low level wind shear for a
time at BKW early Sunday morning with the warm front pushing
through aloft.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08
EDT 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    L    L    M    H    H    H    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
IFR conditions at times in showers and thunderstorms into Tuesday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flood Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for
     WVZ009>011-019-020-030>032-039-040.
OH...Flood Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for
     OHZ067-076.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRM/GW
NEAR TERM...TRM/ARJ
SHORT TERM...GW
LONG TERM...GW
AVIATION...TRM