Fairmont, West Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

081
FXUS61 KPBZ 082350
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
650 PM EST Sat Mar 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Outside of mid to late week low probability light rain chances,
much of the upcoming seven days will be dry with above normal
temperature. The following weekend is expected to feature the
next round of widespread rain.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Slight chance of snow showers north of I 80 late tonight
- Elsewhere, light wind and generally clear skies favor below
  normal overnight temperatures

-------------------------------------------------------------------

Update...
Increased temperatures through the rest of the afternoon in line
with recent surface observations. Also refreshed sky cover, with
a diminishing stratocu field expected into the evening as
surface ridging builds in.

Previous discussion...
A light wind, clear sky night is favored for most of the region
which will lead to below average temperature. There is
potential for an uptick in cloud cover after midnight near
northwest PA as a weak shortwave drops through the NW flow over
the New England region; its late arrival is unlikely to impact
overnight lows but may moderate near dawn temperature.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- A stray light snow shower possible north of I-80 during pre-
  dawn hours; no notable accumulation expected.
- Otherwise quiet weather with temperatures warming above
  seasonal levels.
--------------------------------------------------------------------

The noted shortwave moving through New England may provide
enough lift with Lake Erie moisture enhancement to squeeze out a
few flurries or minimally accumulating light snow showers north
of I-80 Sunday morning. Given localized dynamics in play, there
is potential current forecast may undersell likelihood of those
showers, but 90th percentile HREF QPF with an approximate 20:1
SLR would yield no more than about 1" of accumulation for
northern portions of Venango/Forest counties. The rest of the
day will be dry with lots of sunshine and near to slightly above
normal temperature.

Monday into Tuesday is strongly favored to be dry under the
influence of surface high pressure and gradual height rises
(with a notable low passing well south of the region Monday).
Warm advection in southwesterly flow and bountiful insolation
makes for a high confidence period of achieving above normal
temperature. The biggest uncertainty is to what degree of
warming the region will achieve, more notably on Tuesday. The
driving factor is likely the efficiency of warm advection ahead
of a surface low tracking well north of the region and when its
weak (and dry) cold front passes thru. Forecast mirrors ensemble
means, but the impact of recent cold weather could be causing a
cool bias and undersells 70 degree potential.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Low probability rain chances associated with mid week cold
  front.
- High confidence in persistence of above normal temperature but
  larger uncertainty in timing of precipitation chances.
-------------------------------------------------------------------

Latest ensemble model runs show some discrepancy on the timing
of a relatively dry cold frontal boundary passage late Tuesday
into Wednesday and the presence of a deeper shortwave movement
to the north. This lingers into Thursday as the boundary may
stall near the region before lift northward as eastern CONUS
ridging is enhanced by a deepening central CONUS low. There
remains high confidence in predominately dry weather and above
normal temperature during this mid to late week period. However,
if confidence increases on shortwave interaction with the
boundary to generate localized light rain, current forecast may
undersell areal extent of rain (let alone timing) and the degree
of above normal daytime temperature may be over-forecasted. NBM
probabilistic data captures this uncertainty well as the spread
between the 25th to 75th percentiles for each of
Wednesday/Thursday is anywhere from 7 to 11 degrees.

There is higher confidence in the amplification of the eastern
CONUS ridge Friday into Saturday as a deep closed low approaches
from the west. A lifting warm front early Friday may offer low
probability rain chances, otherwise there is greater confidence
in dry weather and temperature 20+ degrees above the daily
average (for reference, average is 48 degrees at KPIT). The
negatively tilted low will lift NW of the region through the
weekend and may increase area thunderstorm, heavy rain and low
probability severe chances. But significant variations in low
depth and timing prevents much more to be said about potential
threats than this brief mention.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions will continue late this evening into early
tomorrow morning. A passing shortwave will likely lower cigs
north of PIT. However, confidence is not high on MVFR
conditions for a prolong period of time. If MVFR cigs
occur, it would likely be between the time period of 13Z to 16Z
Sunday and could impact FKL/DUJ.

POPs remain rather low with this passing shortwave.

Outlook...

VFR conditions are likely Monday into Tuesday under high
pressure. However, wind gusts will likely increase during the
day on Tuesday with a strong pressure gradient and deep mixing
under dry conditions; winds will prevail from the
west/southwest.


&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Frazier
NEAR TERM...WM/Frazier
SHORT TERM...Frazier
LONG TERM...Frazier
AVIATION...Hefferan