Cross Lanes, West Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

145
FXUS61 KRLX 231722
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1222 PM EST Mon Dec 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Milder today with dry warm frontal passage. Cold front tonight
brings lower elevation rain and a rain/snow mix near mountains.
Some patchy freezing drizzle possible near mountains on Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1222 PM Monday...

Quiet weather will continue today with sunshine and patchy
clouds. A cold front will move through the forecast area from
northwest to southeast early Tuesday morning, which will bring
some rain showers to the lowlands and a light wintry mix the
higher elevations and the foothills of the mountains. Not much
QPF is expected from this system, generally 0.05" or less. This
should translate to only a trace or less of snow in the higher
elevations. In addition, very dry air is expected to move in
behind the cold front Tuesday, which may lead to a period of
light freezing drizzle in the higher ridges. Generally only a
few hundredths of an inch or less of ice is expected. Any
freezing drizzle can still create slick spots, which is why a
Winter Weather Advisory still remains in effect Tuesday morning
through Tuesday evening in the northern mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 130 AM Monday...

A clipper system will bring precipitation on Tuesday. For the
most part, rain is expected across the lowlands with snow in
the mountains being the likely the ptype. Some freezing rain
will get into the northeast mountains as well which will cause a
glaze over certain areas. For this reason, elected to hoist a
Winter Weather Advisory from 10Z to 00Z. This system will
quickly exit the afternoon leaving behind some light snowfall
accumulations and some lingering freezing rain.

A disturbance then approaches the area on Wednesday providing
some chances for precipitation in the form of mostly rain. Some
freezing rain again will likely get into the northeast
mountains, however chances are very low for this happening.
Models have high pressure holding off most of the activity.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1145 AM Monday...

Models show a high pressure system providing dry weather for
Thursday into Friday. The next system arrives later Friday and
Friday night, providing showers.

Models then diverge with a series of upper level disturbances
for the remainder of the weekend. There should be periods with
chances of precipitation, but there is low confidence in the
timing of these disturbances.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1210 PM Monday...

VFR conditions will continue today. 30-40 kts of LLWS is
possible overnight into Tuesday morning as a cold front passes
through the region. South-southwesterly winds today will become
west-southwesterly Tuesday. In addition, MVFR ceilings will
return after 06Z Tuesday, lingering through the remainder of the
TAF period with spotty showers. Some periods of IFR cannot be
ruled out. A light wintry mix is also possible in the higher
elevation terminals Tuesday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and location of LLWS may vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS
CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
EST 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR possible in low stratus and fog Wednesday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Winter Weather Advisory from 5 AM to 7 PM EST Tuesday for
     WVZ522-523-525-526.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JZ/JMC
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...RPY/JZ/JLB
AVIATION...JMC