Clarksburg, West Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

723
FXUS61 KRLX 240802
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
302 AM EST Wed Dec 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild pattern through the weekend with occasional showers and
even a thunderstorm or two. Arctic front whips through Sunday
night bringing a return of much colder weather early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 135 AM Wednesday...

A cold front slipping southeast across the area early this
morning was allowing colder and drier air to filter in from the
northwest. While winds will be a bit gusty at times in and near
the mountains before dawn this morning, surface high pressure
building southeast toward the middle Ohio valley may allow low
level flow to slacken enough for valley fog formation. If this
occurs in tandem with morning lows near or just below freezing,
which would be northwest portions of the forecast area, in east-
central Ohio, then black ice could result on elevated surfaces.

Otherwise the high will bring a brief dry interlude today and
Christmas Eve, this evening, as it slides east just to the
north of the area. The next low pressure system will then pull
the front back northeastward, as a warm front tonight, greeting
Santa and his reindeer with rain, not snow, overnight tonight
and early Christmas morning. High clouds arriving as any
remaining low clouds erode this morning will lower and thicken
tonight, ahead of the incoming precipitation.

A rumble or two of thunder cannot be ruled out overnight tonight
and early Christmas morning amid very narrow low to mid-level
CAPE but strong shear. Carrying over from the Tuesday afternoon
discussion, the last occurrence of thunder on Christmas Day in
Charleston was ten years ago, in 2015.

Lows this morning will be lowest northwest, near or just below
freezing, and over the higher mountainous terrain, low to mid
30s, while highs today and lows tonight are lowest north, mid
30s but above normal throughout the area. The air behind the
cold front crossing early this morning not being as cold as the
previous air mass allows the precipitation arriving overnight
tonight to be of the liquid variety.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Wednesday...

A pair of low pressure systems cross northern portions or just
north of the area Christmas Day through Friday night, dragging a
front draped like garland back and forth across the area.

The first low, a flat wave, will be incoming first thing
Christmas morning, with warm advection rain ongoing. Periods of
rain or rain showers continue much of Christmas morning, before
tapering off from northwest to southeast, along with any chance
for thunder, as the front returns in that direction in the wake
of the exiting wave.

A large polar-arctic high passes well north of the area Thursday
night, bringing another brief dry interlude across northern
portions of the area, with rain lingering south where the front
does not entirely get through. The front then advances northeast
ahead of the second low, this one a bit stronger and tracking a
bit farther north than the first.

The rain spread northeastward throughout the forecast area first
thing Friday morning, and makes for a wet Friday before
gradually tapering off Friday night.

Colder air associated with the polar-arctic high does make
better inroads east of the mountains than that filtering in
this morning as the high ridges southward there, setting up the
classic cold air damming wedge. As such, freezing rain is
possible along the eastern edges of our northern mountains
Friday morning, just on the edge of non-zero probabilities of at
least a hundredth of an inch of ice accretion. Non-zero
probabilities of at least a hundredth of an inch or greater are
just northeast of the forcast area, and all of this is in line
with the WPC and official forcast of up to several hundredths of
an inch ice accretion there. A Winter Weather Advisory may
ultimately be needed there if confidence in freezing rain holds
or increases with time.

Precipitation amounts will be light with the flat wave, and also
the second low, as moisture depth will not be very high with
that system either, limited by a stout mid-level inversion
which will also preclude thunder this go around. As it tapers
off, the rain may evolve into low clouds, drizzle and fog come
early Saturday morning, amid low level saturation beneath the
stout inversion. Fresh cold air will be lacking in the wake of
this system.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 300 AM Wednesday...

Saturday brings ridging surface then aloft that will end any
light rain or drizzle lingering southeast of the Ohio River in
the morning. However, any break up of the low clouds Saturday
as the inversion becomes increasingly shallow will reveal
lowering and thickening clouds Saturday afternoon and night,
out ahead of the next system.

That next system is a pattern changer that will sweep away the
front that has been draped like garland over the Christmas
Holiday. Rain associated with warm advection ahead of a low
pressure system that starts coming together over the Great Lakes
makes for another wet,mild day on Sunday, with rain or rain
showers continuing Sunday night ahead of and along the
associated cold front.

The driver of this system is a mid/upper level short wave trough
that digs east-southeastward through the northern plains, and
midwest, Sunday, and then closes off into a stout mid/upper-
level low over the Great Lakes late Sunday and Sunday night.
Surface low pressure intensifies over the northeastern states
and/or Saint Lawrence River Valley area Sunday night and Monday
in response, whipping what will be an arctic cold front through
the area Sunday night. With mid/upper-level support, this could
change the rain to snow before ending over the lowlands
overnight Sunday night or Monday morning, with at least upslope
snow in and just west of the mountains through Monday, maybe
longer.

A distant early peak still shows some model agreement on a
second stout mid/upper-level low and surface arctic cold front
around the middle of next week, as 2025 gives way to 2026.

Much above normal temperatures Saturday through Sunday abruptly
drop significantly below normal early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 135 AM Wednesday...

Stratocumulus early this morning will fluctuate from MVFR to
occasionally VFR ceiling, although IFR ceiling is possible at
BKW around dawn.

Slow clearing of the stratocu from northwest to southeast, and
diminishing wind from southwest to northeast, may allow fog to
form early this morning over portions of the middle Ohio Valley,
where clear or partially clear sky, and light to calm wind,
intersect.

Have coded up MVFR mist for the all the lowland sites HTS, PKB,
CRW and CKB, although a more pessimistic IFR outcome is
possible along the Ohio River, HTS and PKB, while visibility
restrictions may not materialize farther east, CRW and CKB.

Any ceiling and visibility restrictions should end altogether by
14Z this morning, leaving VFR conditions for the balance of the
TAF period. High clouds overspreading the area ahead of the
next system today will lower and thicken tonight, down to 4 to 6
kft at HTS, CRW and BKW by 06Z Thursday.

West to northwest surface flow will be gusty at times in and
near the mountains before dawn, and otherwise be light, and
eventually calm to light and variable today and tonight, except
turning light south to southeast at BKW tonight. Moderate
northwest flow aloft early this morning will become light north
to northwest this afternoon, and then light to moderate west to
southwest tonight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Ceilings will fluctuate early this
morning. IFR fog could form early this morning, most likely in
the middle Ohio Valley, or MVFR mist may not occur where
advertised, most likely farther east. Timing of improvement to
VFR may vary a bit later this morning.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   WED 12/24/25
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
IFR possible in low ceilings and rain overnight Wednesday night
into Thursday, and again Friday starting early.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...TRM