Clarksburg, West Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

864
FXUS61 KRLX 030435
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1235 AM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A system serves up showers and thunderstorms at times through
the weekend, with flooding increasingly likely for the Mid-Ohio
Valley region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1235 AM Thursday...

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a cold front will push
into our area early this morning. A low level jet (currently 60
knots at 3000 feet near Charleston) will keep very strong winds
just off the surface this morning. There is concern that these
storms could mix these winds to the ground and produce damaging
wind gusts. Model soundings also show helicity values of 800 to
900 as the line hits our western counties with shear values of
50 to 60. Therefore, tornados are also a possibility. With
effective CAPE of 500 to 1000 in this area as well, some large
hail is possible.

The cold front will then stall over eastern Kentucky and West
Virginia today and tonight. Heating south of the front should
once again create conditions favorable for severe weather this
afternoon. The threat of flash flooding also increases. A couple
of meso models are showing some heavy precipitation getting into
northeastern West Virginia, although the majority are not. This
does lead to concerns that the Flood Watch may need to be
extended across the rest of northern West Virginia, but will
hold off for now until models are in better agreement.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 156 PM Wednesday...

Frontal boundary initially stalled out across the area early Friday,
should generally lift back north during the day. Heavy rain/storms
are looking likely early Friday along the Ohio River and North
Central WV in area of front. However, showers and storms will
continue to occur during the day Friday, but thinking is as we
progress into the late afternoon or evening hours, the bulk of
precipitation should generally be north of the Ohio River closer to
the front. Still looking at the potential for severe storms, mainly
north of the Ohio River on Friday, with a damaging wind threat
possible. By the time we get into Friday evening/night, the front
should have lifted well to our north, along with the axis of heavier
rainfall as waves of low pressure move along the front.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 140 PM Wednesday...

Key Point:
* Flooding concerns linger into early next week.

An unsettled pattern continues as a low pressure system moves into
the Great Lakes region and then migrates northeast on Saturday.
While drier conditions may creep in to southern and eastern portions
of the CWA during the afternoon, the best chances for precipitation
linger across southeast OH, northwest WV, and northeast KY. Rain and
thunderstorms overspread the area as a cold front approaches
Saturday night, then activity continues into Sunday night while the
front slowly trudges east.

During the first half of the work week, another low passes to the
north while an associated upper trough pivots overhead. Periods of
precipitation remain possible as this system crosses and potentially
sends another front across the area.

Flooding remains a concern, particularly across the western half of
the CWA where soils are already expected to be saturated from
previous rainfall. In addition to an initial risk of flash flooding
this weekend, runoff is expected to lead to rises on rivers, creeks,
and streams with potential for river flooding to persist through
early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 754 PM Wednesday...

Some showers and thunderstorms have popped up across SE Ohio and
the lowlands west of Charleston late this afternoon. Some
lightning and small hail have been reported with these. They
appear to be weakening at this time though and will likely
continue to do so with the sun setting.

VFR conditions expected for most of the evening until a complex
of storms arrives at our western door step between ~04-06z
tonight, then slowly pushing westward. Some of these storms will
likely be strong to severe with damaging winds, hail and the
chance for an isolated tornado or two. MVFR and IFR restrictions
will accompany this system.

The convective activity will likely die down early in the
morning morning, but showers will remain across the area with
pockets of heavy rain possible. MVFR conditions will likely
accompany this through the morning. Another round of strong to
severe thunderstorms are expected tomorrow afternoon with
damaging winds, hail and isolated tornado potential being the
risk factors on the table.

SSE winds will remain breezy to gusty tonight as a low-level jet
moves in overhead and strengthens. Gusts between 20 and 30 kts
will be common for most sites. 45 to 55 kts of LLWS remains in
the TAFs for most sites overnight as the low level jet strengthens.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and intensity of restrictions with
showers and thunderstorms could vary. Timing and intensity for
thunderstorms could also vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                             THU 04/03/25
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EDT 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    L

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
IFR conditions possible in showers and thunderstorms Thursday
night through Sunday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for WVZ005>011-014-017-019.
OH...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for OHZ066-067-075-076-
     083>087.
KY...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RPY/SL
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...LTC