Charleston, West Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

140
FXUS61 KRLX 130020
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
720 PM EST Sun Jan 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Mixed precipitation and gusty winds at times Monday, turning
all snow. Cold for much of next week. More disturbances plague
the area through the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 716 PM Sunday...

Temperatures are going to start plummeting here after sundown.
Elkins-Randolph County Regional Airport is already reporting 18
degrees after being right at 32 degrees two hours ago. Most
locations saw temperatures above freezing this afternoon under
mostly clear skies, so refreezing leading to black ice will be
an issue tonight. Issued a statement across most of the area to
cover these concerns.

Soundings are still suggesting some snow showers and pockets of
freezing drizzle tomorrow morning. Light snow accumulations are
possible, mostly across southeast Ohio, northern lowlands and
the mountains of West Virginia. Temperatures are forecasted to
rise above freezing for most locations tomorrow afternoon
though, so any new accumulations will likely blend into the
current snowpack.

As of 127 PM Sunday...

Dry conditions are expected for the most part of tonight as a
surface high pressure exits southeast into the Carolinas.
Meanwhile, a surface low pressure crosses east over the Great
Lakes on Monday. A cold front, extending south southwest into
the OH valley will cross east, spreading wintry precipitation
across our area through late Monday.

Bufkit soundings show a shallow saturated layer (surface up to H850)
within 0C to -10C thermal layer at HTS by 12-14Z. With sub-freezing
surface temperatures expected across the Middle Ohio valley
Monday morning, it could result in a brief periods of freezing
drizzle. NBM guidance brings little precipitation with this
system as it could not resolve well for shallow moisture.
Guidance suggest it will be marginal whether there will be ice
in the column or not. Most guidance have no ice in the column so
prefer to include drizzle/freezing drizzle to the forecast.

Temperatures will briefly warm up above freezing across the southern
coalfields Monday afternoon, before coming back to below freezing
areawide by Monday early evening. This may produce a mix of snow and
rain or sleet mainly over these areas, while all snow should prevail
across the higher terrain and the northern sections. Confidence
running high on forecasting drizzle and freezing drizzle. Very
light snow mixed with freezing drizzle without any accumulations
are expected across portions of the Middle OH valley, the Tri-
state area (OH/KY/WV), east into Kanawha metro area on Monday.
Snow accumulations from a trace to a dust will be possible
across the northern lowlands. An inch or two will be possible
along the higher terrain of our northeast mountains by late
Monday evening.

Tonight`s lows will range from the upper 20s across the lowlands,
into the mid teens across the northeast mountains. Highs on
Monday will only reach the upper 30s across the lowlands, ranging
into the mid 20s northeast mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 133 PM Sunday...

Precipitation will be tapering off across the mountains Monday
evening as a front gradually moves east of the area. A reinforcing
shot of cold air will move into the area, along with gusty winds
Monday night in CAA. Lows Tuesday morning will bottom out in the
single digits to lower teens area wide, and this combined with the
gusty winds, should result in cold weather advisory criteria for at
least parts of the higher terrain Tuesday morning, possibly even in
parts of SE Ohio. With the cold air mass in place, expecting high
temperatures on Tuesday to remain well below normal. In addition,
there does remain the potential for a quick moving disturbance to
affect the area Tuesday afternoon and evening. Look for the
potential of additional light snowfall.


By Wednesday morning, with the cold air mass in place, snow cover,
and perhaps some partial clearing, mainly outside of the mountains,
Wednesday morning low temperatures will be even colder, with single
digits, to possibly even below zero in some spots common. Looking at
the potential for cold headlines once again during this time spot,
particularly in the mountains, but certainly can`t be completely
ruled out across other areas, despite a lighter wind taking hold
across the lowlands as high pressure nudges in. Temperatures
Wednesday afternoon look to remain below normal for this time of
year.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 133 PM Sunday...

Light snow showers look to return to the area once again on Thursday
as a disturbance/upper trough moves east across Canada and the Great
Lakes/NE US region. At least light accumulations look to be possible
during this time period, particularly with a light fluffy
texture/high snow ratio expected with the snow. Another system looks
to affect the region over the weekend. Good southwesterly flow out
ahead of the system may actually result in temperatures warm enough
to support rain at least initially, before potentially switching
over to snow on Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 653 PM Sunday...

Most sites are VFR and will remain so until after about
~06z when MVFR and IFR CIGs move in from the west ahead of cold
front. Soundings show light snow showers and some pockets of
freezing drizzle are possible at multiple sites early Monday
morning. Used PROB30 groups to denote this possibility and it is
possible that it becomes more likely allowing PROB30 groups to
be absolved. As temperatures rise by afternoon a change over to
all -DZ is possible across the mountains and CKB.

Precipitation gradually ends along the northeast mountains
Monday evening, with IFR conditions continuing along the higher
terrain, and MVFR ceilings across the rest of the area into
Monday night.

Southerly winds will be calm to light overnight, then picking up
tomorrow with a westerly shift expected in the afternoon behind
this front. Gusts between 25 and 35 knots are possible across
the highest ridges of the northeastern mountains.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and intensity of deteriorating
conditions could vary slightly from the forecast. Duration of
freezing drizzle and snow showers may vary from forecast.
Precipitation type may vary from forecast.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
EST 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
Intermittent IFR conditions with possible snow showers Monday
afternoon and night, then again Tuesday afternoon and night.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...ARJ/LTC
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...LTC