Charleston, West Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

059
FXUS61 KRLX 221900
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
200 PM EST Mon Dec 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Light rain moves in tonight into Tuesday with some brief
freezing rain in the NE mountains and Greenbrier Valley. Mild
with additional rain chances Christmas through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 200 PM Monday...

Key Points:
* Light rain moves in overnight.
* Brief period of freezing rain likely overnight in the NE mountains
  and Greenbrier Valley as precipitation begins.

A shortwave passes by to our north through tomorrow. In response, a
low level jet engages overnight which transports moisture
northeastward across our area. Clouds will lower and thicken this
evening and light rain will overspread the region overnight as a
result.

Temperatures will bottom out in the evening and then rise for most
locations as warm advection kicks in. However, there will be some
pockets of sub freezing temperatures as the rain moves into our
northeast mountains and the Greenbrier Valley around midnight. The
probability of a light glaze exceeds 80% according to the HREF in
parts of Pocahontas County and on Cheat Mountain in SE Randolph so
will issue a Winter Weather Advisory from midnight to 7 am for this
area for a light glaze of ice.

Otherwise, rainfall amounts will be light with this event and in
fact, it may end up being more drizzly in nature during the day
Tuesday under a low overcast. Temperatures will warm nicely despite
the clouds with most locations warming into the 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 PM Monday...

Key Point:
* Santa brings us a warm and wet Christmas this year.

After what should be a relative mild and dry day on Wednesday,
the fast west-northwest flow aloft brings another shortwave
through to our north on Christmas Day. This will provide another
shot of rain Wednesday night into Christmas Day. In fact, we
could see enough instability for a rumble of thunder or two as
locations along and south of I-64 warm above 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 200 PM Monday...

Key Point:
* Remaining mild and active late week into the weekend.

The flow aloft remains largely zonal through Saturday before
buckling as a trough digs back into the eastern U.S. Sunday
into early next week. This should keep us mild and unsettled
Friday through most of the weekend before at least some
semblance of winter returns early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1223 PM Monday...

Light winds and VFR flight conditions are expected into the
evening. Clouds will be lowering and thickening with time with
MVFR ceilings developing late tonight as a front glides north.
This will also result in light rain developing across the area
late in the evening into early Tuesday morning. Some pockets of
freezing rain will be possible in the mountains as the rain
begins, but this should be brief as stiff southwesterly winds
aloft bring in warmer air through the night. With light winds
initially at the surface, these higher winds aloft will create
a LLWS threat early Tuesday morning.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Onset time of precipitation may vary from
forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR possible in rain/fog Tuesday morning, and Wednesday night
into Thursday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 7 AM EST
     Tuesday for WVZ523-524-526.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ABE
NEAR TERM...ABE
SHORT TERM...ABE
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...ABE