Charleston, West Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

121
FXUS61 KRLX 140628
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
128 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Widespread precipitation gradually moves in early this morning
and continues through Thursday, with showers lingering Thursday
night into Friday. Dry by late Friday and for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 125 AM Thursday...

Surface low located over far western Illinois this morning is
supporting widespread showers and even a few isolated storms through
Thursday afternoon. No severe weather is expected with any of these
storms and widespread, beneficial rainfall of around and even just
over an inch of rain is expected for much of the area with the
highest totals expected in NE Kentucky and near Huntington.

Despite the extremely dry air present across much of the area,
precipitation seems to be filtering in efficiently here, which
should help to alleviate some of the fire spread concerns given our
low to mid 20% RH range present across much of the county warning
area. This should improve quite rapidly overnight as we begin to
saturate and precipitate which should also help to alleviate the
wildfire smoke some areas across our south are experiencing.

Attention then turns to the potential for freezing rain and even ice
pellets across parts of the northeast mountains, primarily portions
of Pocahontas county where cold air damming is still occurring amid
southeast surface flow and where temperatures are at or just below
freezing until the heavier precipitation arrives late this morning.

However, given the deep warm layer well above freezing and the
physical surface temperatures, no accumulation is expected to occur
at this time but elevated surfaces could see a trace or so of ice
before rain takes over by late this morning. The potential wintry
mix could persist a little longer in the higher elevations of the
mountains but accumulation is still not expected. Given the
probability and the timing of the wintry mix event, a special
weather statement was issued for areas most likely to see this brief
period of ice in Pocahontas and Randolph counties.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1143 AM Wednesday...

Low pressure will begin to exit our region on Friday, but scattered
showers will likely remain during the morning hours, especially in
the higher terrain in upslope flow. That northwest upslope flow will
likely keep most of the region socked in clouds throughout the day,
with very little sunshine expected. Afternoon temperatures will run
slightly below normal for the middle of November.

A large ridge of high pressure will build back into the area from
the west Saturday, allowing the clouds to gradually clear for
sunshine and temperatures to moderate closer to normal for the
middle of November.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1143 AM Wednesday...

Sunday will be a bit warmer with temperatures back into the middle
60s for daytime highs across the lowlands and the lower 60s across
the mountains. Models are projecting that the upper-level ridge axis
will be centered right on top of our region through next Tuesday,
leading to the return of warm weather for the second half of the
weekend and the beginning of the new work week. Highs may even reach
the lower 70s across some of the lowland spots Tuesday afternoon.
The next chance of rain may arrive by the middle of next week with
another cold front.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 125 AM Thursday...

VFR conditions should persist for much of the night until
precipitation fully overspreads the area from west to east through
early morning Thursday. MVFR conditions for both ceilings and
visibility then become more likely in the heavier precipitation with
some IFR possible in the heavier showers/isolated embedded storms.
MVFR or even IFR ceilings could persist well into Thursday night and
even Friday morning as stratus and some rain showers linger in a
weak flow post frontal environment.

SE winds of around 10kts with gusts as high as 20-30kts should
continue to increase through the morning hours then gradually
decrease through the day Thursday as the system pulls east of the
area and winds gradually turn more westerly.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibility
late tonight and Thursday could vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   THU 11/14/24
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    H    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    H    H    M    M    H    M    L    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    L    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    H

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
IFR conditions will be possible in occasional rain showers and
low stratus Thursday night into Friday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ABE/28/GW/JMC
NEAR TERM...28
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...28