Bluefield, West Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

953
FXUS61 KRNK 231418
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
918 AM EST Mon Dec 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will cover the southern Appalachians today and
tonight. Low pressure crossing the Great Lakes today and tonight
will bring a chance of precipitation to southeast West Virginia
Tuesday. A coastal front off the Carolina coast will result in
rain and freezing rain from southeast Virginia to South
Carolina on Tuesday.

&&


.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 900 AM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

1) Slightly warmer day

2) Weak cold front approaches from the northwest

It is another clear and dry day today. Temperatures will be cold but
subtly warmer than yesterday with highs in the 30s and lower 40s
across the region. An approaching cold front from a surface low over
the Great Lakes will bring winds more southerly by the end of the
day. These winds, however, will be considerably light (0-5 kts).
Cirrus clouds may approach as early as this evening if the cold
front approaches earlier than anticipated.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:

Key messages:

   - Below normal temperatures today
   - Not as cold tonight
   - Any precipitation chance will not be until late tonight

High pressure over the Mid Atlantic region and a dry airmass will
result in abundant sunshine today. Weak warm advection brings
850 MB temperatures back up to zero by the end of the day.
Despite the cold start, enough sun to warm maximum temperatures
into the 30s. Most locations will get above freezing today.

A piece of the surface high remains over the southern Appalachians
tonight. Cloud cover increases overnight.  The air mass will
continue to moisten and just before sunrise will be saturated enough
to support a low probability of precipitation in southeast West
Virginia. Locations southeast of Danville will be on the
northern fringe of an area of precipitation. This edge had
shifted slightly south of the latest synoptic models. 3KM NAM
Bufkit forecast sounding show wet bulb temperatures below
freezing. Will have rain or snow showers at the onset of this
precipitation. Light wind and little cloud cover this evening
will result in a quick drop in temperature. Once the clouds
filling overnight, the cooling will slow.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 400 AM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

1: Very low chances of precip in the midweek

2: Temperatures moderate towards normal

Surface high pressure will begin to break down on Tuesday, though an
ill-defined area of higher pressure will remain in place around the
Mid-Atlantic and into New England. Mostly zonal mid-level flow will
not provide upper support for precipitation. Troughing will develop
over the plains but will be slow to travel eastward, and
deterministic solutions tend to have this feature fall apart before
reaching our CWA as well. This could force some intermittent upslope
showers in southeastern WV on Wednesday afternoon though.

On Tuesday afternoon a small baroclinic zone develops off the
Carolina coast. Depending on its intensity, a slight chance of PoPs
could reach into some of our Piedmont counties. However, given the
dry environment, have held precipitation outside of the CWA.

The aforementioned high pressure over New England will move
into a CAD- favorable position sometime Wednesday. The cloud
cover that will form due to the wedge will help moderate
temperatures and keep them around normal through Thursday. Highs
in the 40s and low 50s, and overnight lows getting just down
into the upper 20s/low 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS of 500 AM EST Sunday...

Key Messages:

1) Minimal rain chances expected, with an unsettled weather
pattern beyond Christmas.

2) Near normal temperatures are expected to end the holiday week.

A complex and active weather pattern looks to develop across the
CONUS to wrap up 2024. An upstream trough pushing into
northwest Texas is expected to amplify a downstream ridge across
the eastern CONUS. While precipitation chances will be
possible, they look to remain low for the time being as any
forcing for ascent is quickly diminished by larger scale
subsidence. Given this ridge amplification, the west Texas
trough looks to lift northeast into the western Great Lakes
region by Friday morning. This will continue to keep the region
dry at this time through at least the early weekend. While upper
level ridging will be in place, temperatures will be primarily
near normal due to the increased cloud cover from all of the
aforementioned shortwaves moving through the region. This will
make it difficult for any significant warm temperatures to
develop during the end of the holiday week and into the weekend.
Temperatures overall look to remain near to slightly above
normal, with overnight lows remaining a touch on the warmer side
across the region.

/Confidence Levels in Forecast Parameters/
- Moderate Confidence in Temperatures
- Moderate Confidence in Precipitation Probabilities

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 635 AM EST Monday...

VFR conditions through the TAF forecast period.

Scattered cirrus will cross the area today and tonight.

Cloud cover increases after midnight and ceilings will gradually
lower, but remain VFR.

Above average confidence in ceiling, visibility, and wind.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Terminal conditions are dependent on a series of shortwaves that
will make their way through the United States later this week.

Tonight two systems are expected to be diverted way from the
region but MVFR ceilings are possible at KLWB and KDAN Tuesday
morning.

There is a lot of uncertainty in this extended aviation
forecast, but the next chance of precipitation may reach the
area with sub-VFR conditions Friday night and Saturday.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/CG
SHORT TERM...VFJ
LONG TERM...EB/VFJ
AVIATION...AMS/SH