Bluefield, West Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

821
FXUS61 KRNK 130539
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1239 AM EST Wed Nov 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cooler airmass continues to funnel in from the north, bringing
significantly lower temperatures through Thursday. Our next
chance of precipitation arrives Thursday and Thursday night,
with some light wintry weather possible for the Greenbrier
Valley. We will see warmer weather Friday and into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 230 PM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

1) Cold air settles in tonight into Wednesday.

2) Mostly sunny but cool tomorrow, widespread clouds arrive in
the afternoon.

Currently we are in NW flow aloft with high pressure building in
from the north. This has allowed cooler and drier air to filter
in, and this trend continues tonight and into Wednesday. High
pressure moves towards the northeastern states through tomorrow,
setting up a wedge of cooler air. Tonight, PW values drop close
to daily minimums, around 0.15 inches in parts of the forecast
area. This is supported by NAEFS specific humidity anomalies
below normal.

Clear skies, low moisture content, and subsidence will all
support temperatures in the mid 20s to low 30s overnight and
into the early morning hours. Did not go as cold in some
locations, like Burke`s Garden, as winds will still be blowing
somewhat over the higher terrain. Still, it will be cold enough,
and likely the lowest temperatures we have seen since last
February in some spots.

Wednesday looks chilly but dry, with moisture slow to return.
Easterly winds develop as high pressure becomes oriented more to
the northeast. A cold start will support highs about 5 to 8
degrees below normal, generally in the upper 40s to mid 50s.
Expect mostly sunny to partly sunny skies, with a broken deck of
clouds arriving in the afternoon and evening.

Confidence in the near term is high.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 130 PM EST Tuesday...

Key messages:

1)Beneficial rainfall of 0.75 to 1.00 inches is expected for
much of  the region on Thursday.

2)Possible freezing rain for 1-3 hours across Greenbrier and
Bath counties early Thursday morning.

As surface high pressure settles across southeastern Canada,
wedging down the eastern side of the Appalachians will
continue to funnel cool northeast flow into the region, expect
across higher terrain where southeast flow will be present. This
will keep predominantly clear skies across the region through
the morning and early afternoon hours before mid and upper level
clouds start to stream in from the west during Wednesday
evening from our next system. Across the mid and upper levels,
an approaching shortwave vorticity maxima looks to dig across
the lower Mississippi valley on Wednesday before becoming
slightly negatively tilted as it enters the region on Thursday.
This upper level system looks to provide enough forcing for
ascent that much of the area will see beneficial rainfall. This
system also looks to drag the lingering moisture from now
dissipated Hurricane Rafael that has been sitting in the Gulf of
Mexico into the deep south and through our region.

While much of the are will see beneficial rainfall, there looks
to  be a decent signal that near freezing surface temperatures
may linger in Greenbrier and Bath counties as precipitation
starts across the area. Several ensemble solutions have a chance
for pockets of 0.01 to 0.14 inches of freezing rain to fall
across these counties during the early morning hours on Thursday
before enough warm air advection completely warms up the region
into the low 40s by noontime. While confidence is not high in
temperatures reaching these near or just below freezing
temperatures, there is enough of a signal from most guidance
that warrants a mention and inclusion in the grids at this time.

Although the bulk of the system will have passed the region by
Friday, an incoming surface high pressure system across the
central Mississippi valley will induce some northwest flow
across the region, which will lead to upslope flow along the
western facing slopes in West Virginia and Virginia. This will
keep low PoP chances and broken cloud cover in place for much of
the higher terrain locations on Friday, while the Piedmont
clears out.

Overall, high temperatures look to be cool both days, with mid
to upper 40s and low 50s for much of the region on Thursday,
but low 50s across higher terrain and low 60s across the
Piedmont on Friday. Low temperatures Thursday morning will
generally fall into the mid to upper 30s across the area, and
into the upper 30s to low 40s for Friday morning lows.

Overall confidence is moderate in the forecast above.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 200 PM EST Tuesday...

Key messages:

1)Dry weather through the weekend and into the early portion of
the work week.

2)Temperatures warm up through the weekend and into early next
week.

As Thursday and Friday`s weather system exit the region to the
east,  Surface high pressure slowly progresses eastward into
the area by Sunday morning. This will lead to mostly sunny skies
on Saturday and Sunday before an additional upper level trough
that digs south through the Great Lakes on Sunday night might
introduce some upper level clouds into the region late Sunday
and into Monday. Overall, expect dry weather with a warming
temperature trend starting Friday afternoon and continuing
through the early work week next week.

Overall confidence is moderate to high in the forecast above.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1235 AM EST Wednesday...

VFR conditions are expected through the end of the 06Z TAF
forecast period.

High pressure over the Great Lakes will shift east and build
south down the east side of the Appalachians today and
tonight. This will turn to the wind to the northeast and east.

Ceilings will lower but still be VFR tonight as clouds spread
in from the west. Gusty wind, up to 20 kts is expected at KBLF
late in the day and as the southeast low-level jet increases.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK

High pressure will remain overhead and should keep VFR
conditions continuing for all terminals through perhaps 06Z
Thursday. At that point, a front nears from the west and
spreads rain showers into the area.

Expecting likely sub-VFR conditions Thursday through Thursday
night with a high chance for all local terminals to see
precipitation.

Light and brief freezing rain will be possible for the
Greenbrier Valley early Thursday morning.

VFR conditions return Friday into the weekend, however LWB and
BLF may see prolonged upslope clouds in the MVFR range during
this time. NW winds look especially gusty Thursday night into
Saturday morning.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BMG
NEAR TERM...SH
SHORT TERM...EB
LONG TERM...EB
AVIATION...BMG