Spokane, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

841
FXUS66 KOTX 240748
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1148 PM PST Tue Dec 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Periods of rain and snow through the week with high degree of
  uncertainty in forecast specifics.
- Freezing rain anticipated on the Waterville Plateau and local
  pockets in Okanogan Highlands early Wednesday morning.
- Snow to impact travel through North Washington Wednesday.
- Local high winds in extreme southeastern Washington and the
  lower Idaho Panhandle Wednesday.
- Breezy to gusty winds 20-35 mph for the Columbia Basin,
  Palouse, and Spokane Area.


&&

.SYNOPSIS...
The Inland Northwest continues to be under an active pattern
with several opportunities for impactful mountain snow, light
lowland rain and snow, and breezy winds. Cooler temperatures
with drier conditions Friday into the weekend with moderate
confidence for dry conditions to persist early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Christmas Eve-Christmas Day: A vigorous low pressure system will
track northward along the WA Coast today. This will draw east
to southeast winds across the region having two main impacts.
First will be a strong low--level jet developing across eastern
WA and the Idaho Panhandle. For most areas, this low-level jet
will remain aloft and mainly result in low-level wind shear
impacting aviation. This cannot be said for extreme southeastern
WA and the lower Idaho Panhandle including western Lewis,
southern Nez Perce, Asotin, and Garfield counties. This
particular pattern is conducive to locally strong winds
channeling up the Snake River Valley and impacting the
surrounding higher terrain. Numerous 00z hi-res models are
latching on to this and have increased wind gusts speeds such
that the HREF mean is now between 50-60 mph from Winchester, ID
to Waha and into the Blue Mountains. There is a 70% chance for
southerly wind gusts greater than 60 mph and we have decided to
issue high wind warnings from 7AM to 2PM. In these complex
scenarios, the gusts and probabilities for gusts over 50 mph
drop off drastically from Asotin northward into Clarkston and
even across northern Garfield County. The tightening pressure
gradient across the forecast area will result in breezy to
gusty conditions for the many areas but gusts are expected to be
closer to 30-35 mph.

This pattern also supports strong ascent into the East Slopes of the
Cascades and this is where we expect the heaviest precipitation
to fall today. The lower elevations of the Wenatchee and Entiat
River Valleys are currently 35-36F with low probabilities for
accumulating snow but would not rule out wet snow at times. The
mid to upper slopes, Lake Wenatchee Area, Stehekin, and Upper
Methow Valley are currently 30-33F and have a better chance for
several inches of snow. Model QPF amounts are as high as
0.40-0.70" which could result in upwards of 4+ inches. Warmer
air will be nosing into the region which leads to some
uncertainty how quickly some areas will remain all snow or
switch to rain or wet, non-accumulating snow. Typically in
easterly flow patterns, the cooler air is more stubborn to
erode, especially closer to the Cascade Crest. There is
moderate confidence for the midlevel melting layer to pivot from
east to west over the Waterville Plateau, Okanogan
Highlands/Valley. With the Douglas and Kramer RAWS as well as
locations near Republic still at freezing, these areas will be
vulnerable to periods of snow then light freezing rain.

Going into the afternoon and early evening, the aforementioned
coastal low will eject into southern BC and a midlevel
shortwave will swing through ushering a cold front through. It
will not be particularly cold behind the front but we will see
850 mb temperatures cool 8C across E WA and Idaho bringing shift
to southwest winds, wind gusts 20-35 mph, and band of moderate
rain. Meanwhile, this will bring an end to the precipitation
over the Cascades and central WA.

There will be a break in the weather overnight as one system departs
but another wave will be tracking northward along the coast.
The incoming system will deliver the next bout of light
precipitation on Christmas day. For most areas, this will be in
the form of rain. Low level winds will once again back to the
east and southeast which favor the Cascades and northern
mountains to have the lowest snow levels and chance for light
snow. Snow levels will not rise as high as Wednesday but
confidence is not high for lowland snow with 850mb temperatures
only near -1C. A lot will depend on the amount of radiational
cooling Wednesday night and how quickly the cloud cover arrives
before temperatures to warm. Just too much maritime influence
from these systems to get real excited for snow at this point
outside the mountains.

Friday-weekend: We start to see some changes in the weather pattern
Friday into the weekend as high pressure amplifies over the
Gulf of AK. Additional bands of showers will pass through the
region Friday mainly in the form of rain in the morning and
early afternoon then one last shortwave will swing through from
the northwest Friday evening ushering a stronger cold front. A
subtle shift from rain to rain/snow or snow is expected as 850mb
temperatures cool below 0C region-wide. Not expecting a lot of
moisture on the backside of the cold front so any snow will be
short-lived. The air mass cools off quite a bit for the weekend
finally bringing our temperatures near to below freezing and
close to our 30-year averages.

Monday-Wednesday: As we close out 2025 and enter 2026, there is
good agreement (85% of the 100-member ensemble) for a ridge of
high pressure to reside over the Northwest. In this scenario,
the main weather impact will be fog and low clouds with
persistent inversions developing. The 15% of the ensembles that
differ have a flatter ridge by Dec 30-31st with precipitation
coming with a west to southwest jet. /sb

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFs: A deepening low pressure off OR/WA coast will bring
strengthening low level southerly flow to central and eastern WA
Wednesday morning. With lighter surface winds, expecting
widespread LLWS developing after 12z. Bands of precipitation
will lift through the area with periodic precipitation for the
eastern third of WA and North Idaho. Precipitation will be more
persistent in the Cascades where probabilities are higher for
MVFR/IFR cigs/vis. Pockets of freezing rain expected over the
Waterville Plateau and southern Okanogan Valley where localized
temps are at freezing. Precip type mainly snow for the Methow
Valley and Winthrop. A cold front will press through 17-21z
delivering organized precipitation from west to east and
eventually a shift in winds back to the southwest. The southwest
upsloping flow will bring moderate chances for developing
stratus GEG-COE after 06z.


.FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Moderate
confidence for prevailing VFR conditions. Low confidence in
hourly restrictions at LWS which is bouncing in and out of
shallow fog. LWS will also have potential for a brief period of
gusty winds as high winds develop to the south 15-22z.
Probabilities for the high winds to reach LWS are low and LLWS
is more likely.

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane
airports,please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our
webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        41  35  43  32  44  35 /  20  50  70  20  50  70
Coeur d`Alene  42  35  41  33  45  35 /  30  60  70  50  50  80
Pullman        41  38  45  36  47  36 /  70  40  40  30  50  70
Lewiston       43  39  52  38  50  38 /  70  20  20  20  20  50
Colville       39  31  37  31  40  34 /   0  70 100  30  60  80
Sandpoint      40  35  39  34  42  35 /  20  70  80  60  60  90
Kellogg        41  38  43  35  47  35 /  70  70  60  60  60  90
Moses Lake     40  35  47  31  44  32 /  10  70  70   0  50  40
Wenatchee      38  33  40  30  36  29 /   0  80  90  10  60  40
Omak           36  32  35  30  36  32 /   0  70 100  20  50  50

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...High Wind Warning from 7 AM to 2 PM PST Wednesday for Lower
     Garfield and Asotin Counties.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Wednesday for Okanogan
     Highlands.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM PST Wednesday for
     Waterville Plateau.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM PST Wednesday for Western
     Okanogan County.
ID...High Wind Warning from 7 AM to 2 PM PST Wednesday for Lewis
     and Southern Nez Perce Counties.

&&

$$