Virginia Beach, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

036
FXUS61 KAKQ 100736
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
336 AM EDT Tue Jun 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front approaches the area today, bringing scattered
showers and storms. Dry weather returns Wednesday and Thursday
with unsettled weather returning Friday into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 335 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Scattered showers and storms are possible today ahead of a
  cold front. A few storms may be severe with strong wind gusts
  the primary threat.

Warm and muggy this morning as a weak front continues to lift north
of the area. Satellite imagery shows extensive mid and high clouds
across the region. A few showers are possible through the morning
but recent guidance has backed off on both coverage and intensity of
this precip so not expecting much of an impact. Thereafter, partly
to mostly cloudy skies are forecast by late morning into the
afternoon as an upper trough axis approaches the region. A weak
surface low is expected to develop along the stalled frontal
boundary this afternoon. Weak surface convergence, aided by subtle
forcing from the trough axis aloft, should support isolated to
scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon, lasting into the
evening hours. Forecast soundings show decent low level lapse rates
and some dry air aloft to support strong wind gusts at the surface
with any of the stronger convective cores this afternoon/evening.
Shear will be modest, generally around 30 kts, but should allow for
some degree of multicell organization. SPC has most of the area in a
Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) today. 00z HREF shows most of the
convection becoming confined to the SE third of the area after
sunset with just some lingering showers for coastal portions of NE
NC by midnight. The surface cold front moves through late tonight.
Widespread cloud cover this afternoon should keep highs generally in
the mid 80s across the area with lows falling into the 60s
overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 335 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- A cold front finally drops south with drier conditions expected
  Wednesday.

- Warm Thursday with highs climbing into the low 90s.

High pressure builds into the area on Wednesday, keeping the area
mostly dry. A few showers are possible for NE NC (where the front
will likely stall) but confidence in coverage and timing remains low
so will limit PoPs to 30-40%. Warm but not as humid Wednesday
afternoon for most of the area with dew points falling back into the
low/mid 60s and temps generally in the mid to upper 80s. Overnight
lows in the 60s with mostly clear skies expected. Heights aloft
build on Thursday, leading to a dry forecast outside of a low chance
for a few showers near the Albemarle Sound. High temps inch into the
low 90s for most of the area. Overnight low temps generally in the
mid to upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 335 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Message:

- Very warm again Friday with increasing shower and storm chances
  late.

- Daily shower and storm chances returning this weekend into early
  next week.

Height rises aloft are expected Friday into the weekend as upper
ridging near Florida expands northward. The local area will be under
zonal to WNW flow aloft through the period, allowing subtle short
waves in the flow to spark showers and storms each afternoon.
Surface heating combined with ample low level moisture will result
in the potential for gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall with
diurnal convection. Seasonally warm temperatures are expected Friday
with highs in the low 90s. Somewhat cooler Saturday through Monday
with more showers/storms and associated cloud cover expected across
the region. Overnight lows remain in the 60s to low 70s through the
period.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 150 AM EDT Tuesday...

Mainly VFR conditions across area terminals outside of the
Eastern Shore where some IFR CIGs continue. Expect some
improvement there over the next few hours as the weak front
continues to lift N. Light showers are possible across the
region prior to sunrise but not confident in timing or placement
so no mention in the TAFs for now. A period of MVFR CIGs is
forecast at PHF and ORF near 12z before improving to VFR at all
terminals by mid morning or so. Additional showers and storms
are possible this afternoon into the evening ahead of a cold
front so have included PROB30 groups to try and narrow down the
timing. Winds are generally SW 5-10 kt to the south of the front
with SE winds to the north (SBY). SW flow strengthens today
ahead of the front, around 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt.

Outlook: The front moves offshore late tonight with improving
conditions expected into the mid to late week period.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 335 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Message:

- Mostly sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions persist through the
  week.

- SW winds increase slightly around sunrise with a few gusts to 20
  kt in the lower Ches. Bay, but generally staying below SCA
  thresholds.

A slow moving cold front approaches the area from the west early
this morning, allowing prevailing sub-SCA conditions. Winds are
currently SSW 10-15 kt and expected to shift more SW and increase
slightly around sunrise. A few gusts to 20 kt are possible in
the Ches. Bay and lower James River; however, these gusts are
not expected to have a long duration as most models show these
gusts for only an hour or two around sunrise. Local wind
probabilities for sustained winds at 18 kt are hovering around
50% for most of the lower bay for a brief period this morning.
After sunrise, winds will return to 10-15 kt out of the SW, but
the chance of tstms returns again today as the frontal boundary
crosses local waters and pushes offshore. A few SMWs will likely
be needed this afternoon/evening. Sub-SCA conditions continue
for the majority of the week as high pressure returns to the
region behind the stalling cold front. Seas gradually build in
the northern coastal waters to 3-4 ft through tonight.
Otherwise, 2-3 ft seas are expected through the majority of the
week. Waves are expected to be 1-3 ft through the period.

A moderate rip current risk has been introduced for today in the
northern beaches as seas build and swell direction is close to
shore normal. Low rip risk for the southern beaches today and
for all beaches Wednesday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RHR
NEAR TERM...RHR
SHORT TERM...RHR
LONG TERM...RHR
AVIATION...RHR
MARINE...KMC