Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

747
FXUS61 KAKQ 192125
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
525 PM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and storms are expected late this afternoon
and evening as the next cold front approaches. Some storms could
be strong to severe this evening, with damaging winds and large
hail as the main threats. Mainly dry for the upcoming weekend,
with heat and humidity returning late in the weekend into the
first half of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
As of 510 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Severe Tstm Watch has been expanded to include all remaining
  VA zones, as well as Worcester MD, the rst of Ches BAy, all
  rivers, and coastal waters N of Cape Charles.

- Storms are moving rapidly to the E. An Enhanced Risk remains
  in effect for the NW half of our area with a Slight Risk for
  the rest of the area. Damaging winds will be the main threat,
  with large hail possible. While unlikely, a brief tornado
  cannot be ruled out.

A surface low is moving through the eastern Great Lakes Region, with
the attendant cold front draped across the Ohio River Valley.
Meanwhile, an expansive high is parked well off the SE coast south
of Bermuda. Looking aloft, an upper ridge still has a weak grip
across the area, though a trough associated aforementioned surface
low has gradually shoved the ridge further into the western North
Atlantic over the course of today. Temperatures are have reached
upper 80s to lower 90s across the forecast area, with heat indices
in the upper 90s to lower 100s, which is just under our Heat
Advisory criteria (105-109 degrees).

The strong ongoing daytime heating will play a part in this
afternoon/evening`s severe weather by adding fuel to an already
unstable airmass. MLCAPE values are roughly between to between 1500-
2000 J/kg by this afternoon, which is more than adequate for storms
to use to help increase storm intensity. 500-700 mb lapse rates have
steepened to between 6.5-7 C/km, PW values will remain between 1.5-
2.0", and deep layer shear has increased to around 30-40 kt. All of
these ingredients have come together this afternoon and made for a
very favorable environment for the development of strong to severe
storms. Storms have started to develop along a pre-frontal trough to
our west, but are moving quickly towards our western counties. These
storms have already shown that winds are the main threat, with
numerous trees having been reported in the wake of these storms. A
majority of the northern half of the forecast area from near
Farmville through Dorchester is in an Enhanced Risk (3/5) of severe
weather today, with a 30% severe wind probability. The remainder of
the forecast area remains in a Slight Risk (2/5) for severe weather,
with the main threat damaging wind gusts. Large hail and a brief
tornado are also possible, but are expected to be more isolated than
the wind threat. Storms will be moving quickly (SW to NE at 25-35
mph), so excessive rainfall is not much as much of a threat at this
time, though again it cannot be ruled out, especially in light of
rainfall of the past week. WPC has placed our area in a Marginal
ERO. As of now, our forecast rainfall accumulation amounts are well
below an inch with localized higher amounts possible.

Timing/storm-mode: Expect showers and storms to move W-SW to E-NE
into western portions of the region over the next few hours. Storms
will push through the piedmont and I-95 corridor between 4-8 pm,
then look to eventually congeal into more of a linear/quasi-linear
storm mode east of RIC with respective convective outflows and
better shear likely to be over the coastal plain between 8-11
pm.

Clearing out late tonight and cooler with lows in the mid 60s
inland, upper 60s to low 70s along the SE coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 338 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- A short-lived reprieve from the hot temperatures Friday, with
  dry conditions and temperatures back to "only" seasonal levels.

After the "cold" front moves through tonight, temperatures will
briefly drop back closer to normal on Friday with highs in mid to
upper 80s. The shortwave will start to move offshore, but subtle NW
flow aloft will linger through the day on Friday before finally
starting to flatten. As the shortwave clears the coast and moves
further offshore during the day, cloud cover will diminish and
mostly clear skies are expected for a majority of the day. Dew
points will drop into the 60s, and we not expecting any heat
headlines for Friday. An expansive 500 mb ridge will gradually move
from the southern Plains towards the Mid-Atlantic region on
Saturday. This will be the main player in the coming heat wave that
is expected to impact the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 349 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Message:

- Temperatures ramp back up over the weekend into early next
  week. Summer heat and moderate humidity levels expected Sunday
  through the middle of next week. Heat headlines are likely to
  be needed for (at least) portions of the area for much of next
  week.

Rapid height rises are expected through next week as the almost 600
dm high parks itself over the East Coast through mid-next week,
centered over the Mid-Atlantic region. Temperatures will soar into
the mid-upper 90s by Sunday, then will reach the upper 90s to near
100 degrees (mid 90s along the immediate coast) Monday and Tuesday.
Looking back at climate data, Richmond has only recorded 3 or more
days in row of 100+ degree high temperatures 13 times throughout the
entire climate record dating back to 1871. If this forecast holds,
there is a chance that this heat wave will add a 14th time to that
list. Dew points will be in the low to possibly mid 70s, so heat
indices will reach 105 degrees Sunday and Heat Advisories will
likely be needed and could be nearing Extreme Heat Warning
Criteria in some areas (110+ degrees) next Monday and Tuesday.
Wednesday and Thursday will still see well above normal
temperatures but could drop at least a degree or two in terms of
high temperatures, so not much of a reprieve from the heat is
expected through next week. Stay cool...

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 205 PM EDT Thursday...

VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals over the next few hours
before deteriorating as a line of thunderstorms rolls through the
area. Richmond will be affected first, followed by the remainder of
the terminals later this evening into early tonight. Have included
TEMPO groups for each respective terminal for thunderstorm impacts
and have tried to narrow down the timing of the storms, but if the
time of arrival shifts, amendments may be necessary. Outside of
convection, SW surface winds will gust to 20-25 kts through the
remainder of the afternoon. Conditions will start to improve
overnight, with clearing skies and decreasing winds expected.

Outlook: Looking ahead, Dry and VFR conditions are expected to
prevail late tonight/early Friday through the weekend and into early
next week, as strong high pressure builds into the region.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 338 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories in effect through late tonight/early Friday
morning, now including the northern coastal waters.

- Strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon/evening may result
in higher winds and waves.

- Benign marine conditions return Friday through the forecast period
as high pressure builds into the region.

With high pressure well off the Carolina coast and low pressure over
the Great Lakes, the pressure gradient (along with well-mixing) is
producing some gustier winds. Currently out of the SW, winds are 10-
15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in both the Ches. Bay and coastal
waters. Waves and seas are currently 1-2 ft and 3-4 ft,
respectively. Small Craft Advisories are currently in effect for all
rivers and the Ches. Bay for the gustier winds until 06z for all
rivers and 12z for the bay.

A front will move over the waters late afternoon/evening today,
which will bring showers and storms. Some thunderstorms may be
severe and bring stronger winds and seas. Special Marine Warnings
will be issued to reflect any hazards. Behind the front, confidence
has increased that the seas in the northern coastal waters will
increase to 4-5 ft. SCA headlines have been issued for late this
afternoon into early morning to reflect this. Waves in the bay will
also increase slightly to 2-3 ft.

While the seas and waves increase behind the convection, winds will
rapidly drop and shift out of the NW. Once the winds drop below SCA
criteria, they will likely stay below criteria for the remainder of
the forecast period. The only exception may be Saturday night, as
winds are currently forecast at 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the
bay as a shortwave moves over the region. Otherwise, high pressure
builds over the area this weekend into mid week bringing benign
marine conditions.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures Sun 6/22-Wed 6/25

Date    Richmond     Norfolk    Salisbury   Eliz. City
06-22   101(1942)    99(1981)    98(1988)    98(1942)
06-23   101(1988)    99(2024)    99(1988)    99(2011)
06-24   102(2010)   101(1880)   100(1914)    99(2010)
06-25   100(1952)   100(1952)    99(1914)   100(1952)


Daily Record High Minimum Temperatures Sun 6/22-Wed 6/25

Date    Richmond     Norfolk    Salisbury   Eliz. City
06-22    76(2015)    79(2015)    75(1988)    76(1981)
06-23    78(2024)    79(2015)    75(1929)    78(2015)
06-24    78(2010)    79(1994)    75(1969)    76(2011)
06-25    76(1921)    79(1880)    75(1909)    76(1949)

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for ANZ630>632-634.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for ANZ635>638.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ650-652.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...LKB/MAM/NB
SHORT TERM...MAM/NB
LONG TERM...MAM/NB
AVIATION...MAM/NB
MARINE...KMC
CLIMATE...AKQ