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Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast
Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation
NWS Forecast for Tuckahoe VA
National Weather Service Forecast for: Tuckahoe VA
Issued by: National Weather Service Wakefield, VA
Updated: 6:53 pm EST Jan 1, 2025
 
Tonight

Tonight: Clear, with a low around 28. West wind 9 to 11 mph.
Clear

Thursday

Thursday: Sunny, with a high near 45. West wind 7 to 11 mph.
Sunny

Thursday
Night
Thursday Night: Increasing clouds, with a low around 28. West wind around 6 mph.
Increasing
Clouds

Friday

Friday: A slight chance of showers after 1pm.  Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, with a high near 42. Southwest wind 5 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Mostly Cloudy
then Slight
Chance
Showers
Friday
Night
Friday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 23. West wind 11 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph.
Mostly Clear

Saturday

Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 36.
Sunny

Saturday
Night
Saturday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 19.
Mostly Clear

Sunday

Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 38.
Mostly Sunny

Sunday
Night
Sunday Night: Snow likely, mainly after 1am.  Mostly cloudy, with a low around 25. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Snow Likely

Lo 28 °F Hi 45 °F Lo 28 °F Hi 42 °F Lo 23 °F Hi 36 °F Lo 19 °F Hi 38 °F Lo 25 °F

 

Tonight
 
Clear, with a low around 28. West wind 9 to 11 mph.
Thursday
 
Sunny, with a high near 45. West wind 7 to 11 mph.
Thursday Night
 
Increasing clouds, with a low around 28. West wind around 6 mph.
Friday
 
A slight chance of showers after 1pm. Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, with a high near 42. Southwest wind 5 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Friday Night
 
Mostly clear, with a low around 23. West wind 11 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph.
Saturday
 
Sunny, with a high near 36.
Saturday Night
 
Mostly clear, with a low around 19.
Sunday
 
Mostly sunny, with a high near 38.
Sunday Night
 
Snow likely, mainly after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 25. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Monday
 
A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 35. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Monday Night
 
A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 22. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Tuesday
 
Mostly sunny, with a high near 37.
Tuesday Night
 
Mostly clear, with a low around 17.
Wednesday
 
Sunny, with a high near 34.

 

Forecast from NOAA-NWS for Tuckahoe VA.

Weather Forecast Discussion
745
FXUS61 KAKQ 012315
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
615 PM EST Wed Jan 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure lifts along coastal New England today, as strong
high pressure slowly builds across the southern Plains towards
the local area through Thursday. This will bring dry and windy
conditions to the region with gradually cooler temperatures. A
weak system moves through the region later Friday, bringing a
chance for showers. Colder and drier conditions then follow for
the upcoming weekend. Low pressure has the potential to bring
winter precipitation to the area early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
As of 255 PM EST Wednesday...

Key Message:

- Remaining breezy this afternoon and evening (windy along the
  coast). Temperatures average a little warmer than normal for
  one more day.

- Clear and cold tonight.

Latest analysis indicates a weakening area of low pressure
occluded over northern NY, with the primary low over the Gulf of
Maine as of this writing. To the west, 1030+mb surface high
pressure was centered over the Texarkana region. Aloft, the
shortwave that brought precipitation to the area last evening
has pivoted off the Delmarva/northeast coast, with the mean H5
east coast trough in the process of dampening. The tightening
sfc pressure gradient...a result of the deepening sfc low over
coastal New England and the strong sfc high pressure settling
over the southern Plains...has allowed for some gusty winds over
the region today. Gusty downslope flow averaging 20-25 mph, but
gusts to 35-40 mph have been noted at times over coastal VA and
the MD eastern shore. These gusty winds and neutral to weak CAA
thus far has allowed for mild highs that are still 5-10 F above
avg. 20z Obs are averaging in the mid 50s inland, and low-mid
50s on the eastern shore.

Breezy conditions diminish gradually as the pressure gradient
relaxes a bit this evening and through the overnight as high
pressure settles over the mid-south. Ongoing CAA will make for
a colder night tonight with early morning lows in the mid/upper
20s inland to mid 30s along the coast under a mainly clear sky.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 255 PM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Colder but seasonable Thursday and Friday. Winds remain gusty
  on the eastern shore Thursday.

- Increasingly cloudy and chilly on Friday. A disturbance brings
  a chance for light rain/snow later Friday afternoon into the
  evening hours, with a chance for a light SN accumulation over
  the Virginia northern neck and eastern shore.

Thursday: The sfc low lifts NNW into Quebec tomorrow, and as
cold high pressure continues to build SE over the deep south.
Temperatures trend to near or slightly below average tomorrow,
with highs in the low- mid 40s N to the upper 40s S. It will be
mainly sunny, and still a bit breezy, especially across the
eastern shore, owing to the compressed pressure gradient. W-NW
winds gust to ~25 mph (15-20 mph elsewhere). This will keep wind
chills in the 30s for most of the day.

Thursday night and Friday: A quick-moving clipper type swings
from the upper midwest through the OH Valley and into the
northern mid- Atlantic region, eventually becoming absorbed into
the broader system across Atlantic Canada. Middle and upper-
level moisture will increase Thu night and Friday morning,
resulting in increasing clouds after midnight and through Friday
morning. Similar lows Thursday night as high pressure weakens
and clouds increase in advance of the next system. Lows in the
mid to upper 20s (coolest along and just east of I-95 where
clearing hangs on the longest. Lows around 30 F along the
coast. The airmass remains rather dry, but there should be
strong enough lift to lead to scattered late aftn showers across
the N. ~40-50% PoPs continue across the northern neck and
eastern shore (20-30% for RIC Metro and Hampton Roads/N OBX)
for Friday afternoon into Friday evening. Deeper moisture will
be exiting as the low- levels saturate over the NE CWA, and thus
QPF will be minimal. That said, as colder air moves in during
the evening, we will have the potential for snow showers and a
light snow accumulation (< 1" across the eastern shore and
possibly the northern Neck. Still does not look like a big
impact even on the eastern shore as timing of snow would be
brief sfc temperatures are initially well above freezing. Not
out of the question for a few snowflakes to fly across the
piedmont to RIC metro and Hampton Roads, but given weaker
rates/lesser lift due to dry mid-levels, expect sprinkles or
light rain showers to be the dominate p-type Fri aftn, with
quick drying Fri night.

Took highs down slightly for Friday in expectation of ongoing
CAA and mainly overcast conditions after a chilly start. Highs
Fri in the lower 40s N to mid-upper 40s central and S, with
falling aftn temperatures into the 30s if any precip falls into
the cold/dry low level airmass (dew pts in the 20s). Gradual
clearing Fri night with lows in low- mid 20s inland and mid to
upper 20s/~30 at the coast. With the winds, late night/overnight
wind chills will be in the teens.

Saturday: Cold and dry on Saturday with highs only in the 30s
despite a mostly sunny sky, as a strong 1040+mb ridge of high
pressure over the Canadian Prairies allows polar air to spill
south and east into the region. Winds remain blustery out of the
NW with wind chills struggling to get out of the 20s for most
of the area...topping out in the low 30s for an hour or two
along and south of US-460 Saturday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 350 PM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Cold and dry Saturday night with winds decreasing and mostly clear
  skies.

- We continue to keep a close eye on the Sunday night-Monday
  night timeframe. Chances for winter weather continue to
  increase but confidence with respect to placement of
  snow/wintry mix/rain transition zone is low.

Very cold Saturday night as winds finally decrease across the
region. Strong high pressure will remain largely stationary in south
central Canada with a portion of the high moving over the local area
overnight. Light winds and mostly clear skies will result in very
cold and dry conditions with low temps likely to dip into the single
digits across the our rural and typically colder spots in the
Piedmont with low to mid teens expected for the remainder of the
area. Meanwhile, a southern stream disturbance will continue to
develop across the souther Plains by early Sunday morning.

12z guidance has started to come into better agreement with respect
to timing, strength, and placement of surface and upper level
features for the Sunday night/Monday event but some significant
differences remain. The general trend in the latest guidance has
been toward a `Miller B` evolution with an initial area of low
pressure lifting NE just west of the higher Appalachian Mountains
early Monday with a secondary area of low pressure becoming dominant
over eastern NC or SE VA through the day Monday. The ECMWF continues
to be the fastest of the global deterministic models with the GFS
and Canadian taking more time for the secondary low to become the
dominant surface feature. The ECMWF develops the surface low fastest
while the system is still well west of the local area and
consequently has a deeper initial low as well as secondary low
through this event. It is not typically the case that the more
amplified model solutions are the fastest but that continues to be
the case in recent Euro runs. Regardless, the ECMWF has trended away
from a pure Miller A scenario which results in the all too typical p-
type issues that seem to accompany most winter systems in our
region. The development of a secondary area of low pressure near the
coast on Monday results in a layer of warm air aloft and the
resulting concerns for mixed precip. With very cold and dry air in
place at the start of the event, initial precip is expected to be
snow over most of the area Sunday night. Very dry low levels will
take some time to moisten up which will likely limit snow
accumulation overnight. Given we are still 5+ days away from this
potential event, have maintained only rain and snow in the weather
grids as confidence in thermal profiles and their evolution remains
very low at this time. That said, 12z guidance has started to favor
a corridor of mostly snow across the northern third of the area with
a mix of snow/sleet/freezing rain looking more likely for areas to
the south. The corridor of mixed precip is expected to lift N and NW
mid to late Monday morning with all rain expected for areas south
and east of this transition zone. Overall, as is typical, the
transition to rain is earliest in the SE and latest in the NW. Our
far NW counties (Louisa and Fluvanna and vicinity) stand the best
chance of staying very near or below freezing through the duration
of the event. Temperatures Sunday will be dependent on precip
intensity and just how much dry air remains for evaporational
cooling. For now will show highs around freezing NW with mid 30s
extending from near Farmville NE into the Richmond Metro and MD
Eastern Shore. Areas to the south will see upper 30s to low 40s with
some mid and upper 40s possible for portions of NE NC near the
Albemarle Sound. Cold air is expected to rush back S and E Monday
evening as the precip intensity tapers off so some areas may
transition back to all snow as the event comes to an end.

Snow Probs from the ensembles:

- The ECWMF (ENS) shows a 90%+ chc for 1" of snow across the N  and
  ~70+% for 3"+ across the N through the event.

- The GFS and Canadian ensembles are lower, generally ~80% for
  1"+ across the north and ~40-50% for 3"+ across the north with
  decreasing probabilities with southward extent.

Lows Monday night fall into the upper teens NW to the low/mid 20s
with upper 20s for Hampton Roads and points south. Drying out and
staying cold into the middle of next week with highs in the 30s to
low 40s and overnight lows generally in the teens to low 20s.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 615 PM EST Wednesday...

VFR conditions across local terminals will persist through the
00z TAF period. WNW winds have diminished some from earlier, but
remain gusty to 20-25 kt at SBY. Another surge of gusty winds is
possible around 06z with gusts picking back up to ~20 kt. Winds
Sat avg 10-15 kt with gusts to 20 kt under a mostly sunny sky.
FEW- SCT mid- high clouds are expected Thursday, but mainly N
and NW of the terminals.

Outlook: VFR conditions persist across the terminals through
Sunday. There is a chc for -SHRA Friday afternoon, possibly
mixed with -SHSN late Fri aftn/evening (mainly at SBY, but
possible at PHF and ORF). Remaining dry for Sat/Sun. A large
system, likely with some wintry precip, moves in late Sun night
through Monday. The highest chc for impactful winter wx is at
RIC and SBY, with CIG restrictions possible at all terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 300 PM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Gale Warnings in effect for northern coastal waters through
  early tomorrow morning. Small Craft Advisories in effect for
  remaining marine zones.

- Conditions improve Thursday afternoon through Friday.
  Increasing chance for SCA and possible Gale Watch/Warning
  Friday night through Sunday.

Current surface analysis shows yesterday`s cold front well offshore
and the low pressure associated with it to the NE of the area.
Pressure gradients remain tight behind the front causing elevated
northwesterly winds 20-25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt in the bay and
25-30 kt with gusts up to 35 kt in VA/MD coastal waters, with the
strongest gusts in the northern coastal waters. NC coastal waters
are the furthest from the LLJ causing winds to be 15-20 kt. A slight
lull in winds is expected later this afternoon for a few hours with
sustained winds 15-20 kt in the Bay and 20-25 kt in the coastal
waters. Winds will increase close to where they are now overnight,
then gradually come down during Thurs. The SCAs and Gale Warnings
remain unchanged from the previous issuance. Seas in the northern
waters have increased to 4-6 ft, while the coastal waters off SE
VA/NE NC have remained unchanged at 2-4 ft along with waves at 2-3
ft in the Bay. Seas and waves will relatively persist throughout the
duration of the headlines, then decrease Thurs night into Fri
morning.

Once winds decrease, Thurs afternoon thru Fri will remain sub-SCA.
Winds will turn back W-SW Fri ahead of the next cold front set to
move through the region Fri night to Sat. This front will bring
stronger CAA and a tight pressure gradient behind the front likely
leading to another round of SCA from strong SW winds. Models and
local wind probs have increased probs for Gale force gusts for a
short period of time Sat morning in the Bay (35-55%) and all coastal
waters (60-90%). However, have held off on any new headlines since
the event is still a few days out. Winds will decrease Sun morning
to sub-SCA into early next week as high pressure builds into the
region.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Thursday for ANZ630-631-
     654.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for ANZ632>634-
     656-658.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ635-
     636.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for ANZ637-638.
     Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Thursday for ANZ650-652.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...LKB/MAM
LONG TERM...RHR
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...KMC
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Forecast Discussion from: NOAA-NWS Script developed by: El Dorado Weather






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