Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

430
FXUS61 KAKQ 102001
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
301 PM EST Sun Nov 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain showers are likely this evening through Monday afternoon,
though aerial rain totals remain light, as a cold front crosses
the region. Mainly dry and seasonable weather is then expected
into midweek. Another weak frontal system approaches the region
on Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 300 PM EST Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Isolated showers are possible by late this evening, with  more
widespread shower activity tonight.

- Mild Monday with lingering showers over SE VA/NE NC.

This afternoon, high pressure is centered off the Mid Atlantic coast
and continues to push further offshore. Meanwhile, low pressure is
located near the Great Lakes region, with a cold front extending
down the MS River Valley. Clouds will continue to thicken and lower
this afternoon through this evening with increasing moisture ahead
of the frontal system. Have noted a few light radar returns over far
northwestern portions of the area this afternoon, but with a ~15
degree F dewpoint depression at the surface, it is unlikely rain is
making it to the ground. Temperatures range from the upper 50s to
lower 60s across western portions of the area, where clouds have
been thicker, and mid 60s to lower 70s further east.

Rain chances increase from west to east later this evening into the
first part of the night, with scattered to numerous rain showers
entering our western counties around or shortly after sunset. Rain
showers then become widespread and progress through central VA and
towards the coast by Monday AM. Model consensus still shows PWATS of
~1.5" to 1.7" tonight, which is near the upper end of climatology
for this time of year. In addition, model soundings show increasing
MUCAPE, with values approaching ~500 J/kg by sunrise across the SE.
The combination of the high PWATs and increasing instability
supports the potential for moderate to locally heavy rainfall in any
shower, especially across eastern and southeastern portions of the
area, later tonight into Monday AM. Total QPF is still expected to
average around 0.25" across much of the western half of the forecast
area. Further east, QPF amounts range from 0.25-0.50" (with locally
higher amounts) due to some convective elements. Overall, while any
rain is beneficial, this system likely won`t have any appreciable
impact on the drought conditions over the area. Lows tonight will be
relatively mild given the clouds/precip and in the mid-upper 50s for
most of the area and lower 60s far SE VA and NE NC.

For Monday, scattered rain showers (and possibly a few isolated
rumbles of thunder) will linger across SE VA and into NE NC through
the morning and into the early afternoon as the cold front continues
to push SE. With model soundings showing 500 to 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE
tomorrow across the SE, did introduce a slight chance of thunder
mention to the forecast. Otherwise, skies gradually clear from NW to
SE throughout the day as the front drops south. It will be a mild
day as temperatures climb into the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 300 PM EST Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Dry and cooler conditions return Monday night into midweek.

- A widespread frost and/or freeze is possible Tuesday night away
from the coast.

Winds increase Monday night into Tuesday, especially along the
coast, as cooler and drier air begins to filter into the region in
the wake of the front. Meanwhile, ~1030 mb high pressure begins to
settle north of the local area. Depending on how low dew points get,
at least some fire danger could be present Tuesday afternoon given
the gusty winds (Min RH values are currently forecast to range from
~35 to 40%). Lows Monday will generally be in the 40s (lower 50s
across the SE). Cooler on Tuesday with temperatures ranging from the
upper 50s NW to the low-mid 60s SE.

We are still watching the possibility for a widespread frost and/or
freeze Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Latest probabilities
off the NBM highlights much of the area outside of SE VA and NE NC
with 40-60% chances for min temperatures of <= 32 Wednesday AM, with
areas north and northwest of Richmond and across the MD Eastern
Shore showing ~80% or higher probs. Have added frost to the forecast
for areas where the growing season continues and will also highlight
in the HWO, Freeze Watches will likely be needed for a portion of
the area on future shifts. The only caveat is that winds will likely
remain elevated Tuesday night and we never fully decouple, thus
temperatures may remain slightly warmer. For Wednesday, it will feel
more typical of November with highs only in the mid to upper
50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 300 PM EST Sunday...

- Another weak frontal system approaches the area Thursday into
Thursday night.

- Dry/seasonable conditions Friday into the weekend.

Another cold night is expected Wednesday night with high pressure
remaining north of the area. Lows dip likely dip back into the low
to mid 30s for many inland locations, with additional frost/freeze
headlines possible for any locations that the program continues.
Another weak frontal system looks to approach the region Thursday
into Thursday night, bringing at least the potential for some light
rain to the region. This system is not going to be a drought buster
by any means, with model ensembles generally only averaging ~0.10"
(or less). For now, followed fairly close to the NBM, which only has
~20-25% PoPs across the local area Thursday into Thursday night.
Cool on Thursday due to the widespread cloud cover, highs will only
be in the 50s for much of the area, with lower 60s across far SE VA
and NE NC. It looks very nice Friday into the weekend as high
pressure likely situates over the area. Forecast highs and lows are
near to slightly above seasonal norms.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1250 PM EST Sunday...

VFR conditions at all sites to start off the 18z/10 TAF period.
Clouds will continue to thicken and lower as we head through the
afternoon hours and into the evening as a front begins to
approach from the west. Generally staying dry at the TAF sites
through sunset, but cannot rule out an isolated shower chance in
the Piedmont after ~21z. Clouds will continue to thicken/lower
later this evening and tonight with rain showers also becoming
more widespread. Rain chances increase after 00z from west to
east across the area. MVFR CIGs are possible later tonight and
into Monday morning, with the MVFR CIGs reaching RIC and SBY
first (~05-06z) and spreading east/impacting the eastern TAF
sites after ~09z. There is also some potential for low- level
wind shear at RIC and SBY after 06z with a LLJ overhead, but
confidence is not quite high enough to include in this set of
TAFs. Rain showers come to an end from west to east Monday
morning into early Monday afternoon, with gradually improving
CIGs. Winds are generally southerly 5-10 kt this afternoon,
shifting SSW/SW ~10 kt late tonight into tomorrow with some
gusts of ~15 to 20 kt possible.

Outlook: Conditions improve from NW to SE early Monday
afternoon, with all sites returning to VFR by Monday night.
VFR conditions then persist through the middle of the week
before another front potentially brings a period of degraded
flight conditions Thursday into Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 300 PM EST Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories continue for the bay north of New Point
Comfort and for the coastal waters north of Parramore Island tonight
into the first half of Monday.

- A strong cold front moves through late Monday/early Tuesday with
strong Small Craft conditions likely to persist through Wednesday.

Surface high pressure to the north has moved offshore this
afternoon, allowing winds to become SE 10-15 kt. Waves are 1-2 ft
with seas 3-4 ft offshore.

Winds will become S then SW late this afternoon and evening. The
pressure gradient will be steepest over the northern waters tonight
with SW winds 15-20 kt and gusts to 25 kt over the middle and upper
Chesapeake Bay. The northern coastal waters will average closer to
20-25 kt with a few gusts as high as 30 kt tonight. Waves in the bay
build to 2-3 ft tonight with seas 3-4 ft S and 4-5 ft for the waters
near/north of Parramore Island. SCA headlines are unchanged with
this forecast package. Expecting a brief lull as winds become
westerly tomorrow ahead of the cold front. 12z guidance continues to
show robust pressure rises behind the front as cold and dry
advection continues. Mixing over the relatively warm waters will
allow winds to increase to 20-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt for all area
waters starting shortly after midnight Tuesday morning and
continuing into early Wednesday before winds begin to diminish.
Waves increase behind the front to 3-4 ft with 4-5 ft waves near the
mouth of the bay. Seas will build to 4-6 ft with 5-7 ft seas likely
near and south of the VA/NC border later Tuesday into Wednesday as
winds become NNE. Another surge of cold/dry advection and SCA
headlines is possible by late week behind another cold front.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
     Monday for ANZ630-631.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM EST Monday for ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJB/SW
NEAR TERM...AJB
SHORT TERM...AJB/SW
LONG TERM...AJB/SW
AVIATION...AJB
MARINE...RHR