Suffolk, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

374
FXUS61 KAKQ 091912
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
312 PM EDT Mon Jun 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front moves across the area on Tuesday, bringing scattered
showers and storms. Dry weather returns Wednesday and Thursday with
unsettled weather returning Friday into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
As of 310 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Isolated showers and storms are possible this afternoon with scattered
  showers and storms late tonight.

- Highs today in the 80s to around 90F.

A backdoor cold front moved through this morning and has since
stalled near the I-64 corridor. Winds south of the front were S/SW
with winds north of the front E/SE. This front is expected to slowly
lift north this afternoon. The stratus north of the front continues
to clear with SCT CU taking their place. As such, expect partly
sunny skies to continue through the afternoon with highs in the mid
80s north to around 90F south.

Mesoanalysis shows SBCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg this afternoon across
the area with ample 3CAPE and high DCAPE along with LCLs ranging
from 750m north of the front to 1500m across the southern Piedmont.
Shear remains modest with bulk shear of 20-30 kt. However, some
pockets of 35 kt are possible later this afternoon. However, upper
level forcing is lacking with the outer edge of a shortwave just
beginning to enter the region by around 6 PM, largely waiting until
overnight to move through. As such, only a few isolated
showers/storms are possible this afternoon mainly along the remnant
cold front which may provide just enough lift for convection to form
(15-30% PoPs). However, without upper level support, updrafts will
likely struggle (at least initially). Nevertheless, given the backed
winds north of the front and ample instability, a few strong to
potentially severe storms are possible with some potentially weakly
rotating. Therefore, can`t rule out a strong to severe wind gust.
SPC has maintained a general thunder risk across most of the region
apart from a Marginal (level 1/5) risk across portions of NE NC
mainly for tonight`s convection. Additionally, WPC has placed the
entire area under a Marginal risk for excessive rainfall due largely
to the scattered showers/storms moving through tonight. However, any
isolated showers/storms that form this afternoon may produce locally
heavy rain given slow storm motions. PoPs increase to 20-50% late
tonight into early Tue morning with the highest PoPs across SE VA/NE
NC. Lows tonight remain mild around 70F given the widespread cloud
cover and scattered showers/storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 310 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Scattered showers and storms develop Tuesday with isolated
  strong to severe storms possible.

- Dry weather returns Wednesday.

Aloft, a trough weakens as it moves towards the region on Tue.
Meanwhile, a cold front pushes E across the area. As such, scattered
showers and storms will be possible from the morning through the
afternoon ahead of and along the front with PoPs of 45-60% east of I-
95 early Tue morning and Tue afternoon. Given the widespread early
morning convection, the degree to which the atmosphere is able to
destabilize by the afternoon remains the greatest uncertainty with
respect to afternoon storm coverage as well as severity. The HRRR
keep SBCAPE at or below 1000 J/kg Tue afternoon whereas the NAM 3km
has 1500-2500 J/kg of SBCAPE. The nearly unidirectional shear
profile supports mainly a linear storm mode with isolated strong to
severe wind gusts the primary hazard. However, can`t rule out some
sub-severe hail as well. Given the uncertainty in overall storm
severity, SPC has maintained a Marginal (level 1/5) risk for severe
weather across most of the FA due to the aforementioned
potential for a few isolated damaging wind gusts. Additionally,
WPC has maintained a Marginal risk of excessive rainfall for the
entire FA given the saturated soil and the potential for
localized (mainly urban) flooding. Convection moves offshore by
Tue evening with clearing skies Tue night behind the cold front.
Dry weather returns Wed as high pressure moves in. However,
cannot rule out a few isolated showers/storms across NE NC.

Highs in the mid 80s Tue and upper 80s Wed are expected. Meanwhile,
lows in the lower 60s W to upper 60s E Tue night and mid to upper
60s Wed night are expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 310 PM EDT Monday...

Key Message:

- Hot weather arrives Thursday and Friday with gradually
  moderating temperatures into early next week.

- An unsettled pattern develops Friday into early next week with daily
  chances for scattered showers and storms.

Zonal flow with weak ridging develops from mid to late week with a
larger ridge developing across the central CONUS next weekend. At
the surface, high pressure remains overhead Thu with a lingering
frontal boundary from Fri through early next week. As such, expect
dry weather Thu outside of an isolated shower/storm across NE NC.
Given the lingering frontal boundary through the weekend, expect an
unsettled pattern to develop with daily chances for scattered
showers and storms Fri through Mon. Hot temps are expected Thu and
Fri with highs in the lower 90s. Moderating temps are expected Sat
into Mon with highs in the 80s. Lows range from the upper 60s to
near 70F Thu night through Sat night and mid 60s to around 70F Sun
and Mon nights.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 150 PM EDT Monday...

A weak boundary is stalled along or just north of I-64 this
afternoon, with SCT to BKN MVFR CIGs north of the boundary (RIC,
ORF, and PHF) and VFR CIGs south (ECG). Across the MD Eastern
Shore, still seeing lingering IFR CIGS (~900 feet) but expect a
gradual trend towards MVFR CIGs over the next 1-2 hours as
indicated in the SBY TAF. We likely see a gradual improvement
towards VFR for all locations (minus SBY) this afternoon into
the first half of the night. In addition, can`t rule out a
pop up shower or thunderstorm along and south of the boundary
through sunset, handled this with a PROB30. Winds remain tricky
today the weak boundary gradually lifting north. VRB winds this
afternoon become SW by late afternoon/evening, SE winds
remaining in place for SBY through the period. CIGs diminish
back to IFR at SBY tonight (potentially patchy fog/VSBY
restrictions as well). There is also potential for a brief
window of IFR CIGs at RIC and PHF starting around 11-12z
tomorrow AM. Rain chances also increase late tonight into
tomorrow morning with VSBY restrictions possible in any heavier
showers.

Outlook: Additional scattered showers and storms move through
Tuesday afternoon with flight restrictions possible. VFR
conditions are then expected Tuesday night through Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 245 PM EDT Monday...

Key Message:

- Southerly winds briefly increase later tonight into early
  Tuesday morning, but generally stay below SCA thresholds.

- Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions are then expected to
  continue through the week.

A frontal boundary lingers over the waters early this afternoon with
easterly or variable winds north and SE to S winds of 5-15 kt
over the central/srn waters. Seas are 2-3 ft.

Prevailing sub-SCA conditions are expected to continue through the
week. Winds will gradually become SSW and increase to ~15 kt
later this evening and tonight as a weak area of low pressure
approaches from the west. Will likely see gusts to 20 kt,
especially over the lower Chesapeake Bay and coastal waters,
but not expecting these to be frequent enough to warrant SCAs.
Local wind probabilities for sustained 18 kt winds are hovering
around 40%, with a few spots up to 50%. SW winds around 15 kt
continue on Tuesday, but the highest winds will be over the
rivers and near the land- water interface due to daytime mixing
over adjacent land areas. Again, a few 20 kt gusts are likely
during the day. Tstm chances return tonight and especially
Tuesday as the frontal boundary likely pushes south of the
waters. A few SMWs will likely be needed Tuesday aftn/evening.
High pressure returns by midweek with winds aob 10 kt expected.
Seas remain 2-3 ft today, but build to 3-4 ft late tonight- Tue.
Waves are expected to be 1-3 ft through the period.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RMM
NEAR TERM...RMM
SHORT TERM...RMM
LONG TERM...RMM
AVIATION...AJB
MARINE...AJB/ERI