Roanoke, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

042
FXUS61 KRNK 160607
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
207 AM EDT Sat May 16 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Aviation section updated.

Record high temperatures possible early next week.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
Key Message 1: Small chance of precipitation this weekend for
West Virginia.

Key Message 2: Warming trend next week with a chance of rain
possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Message 1: Small chance of precipitation this weekend for
West Virginia.

Forecast for this weekend continues to be on track. A mid-level low
will continue to move northeastward and flow oriented from the
southwest to the northeast will send a few perturbations to the
region. These disturbances are expected to arrive this weekend but
impacts are to be minimal for two reasons. One is model guidance
shows they will too far north and may only bring a small
precipitation chance for the West Virginia counties. Starting this
weekend a mid-level ridge begins to build over the southeastern
CONUS and a surface high settles over Bermuda. So, any storms that
wish to develop will also have to battle heavy resistance from the
subsidence from these systems.

Key Message 2: Warming trend next week with a chance of rain
possible.

Speaking of the ridge and surface high, this weather pattern will
lead to increasing heights and southwesterly low level flow to send
warm and moist air to the Mid-Atlantic. This will result in a
warming trend that will potentially break records. The warm
transition will start to reach its peak by Monday as highs reach
into the upper 80s to lower 90s. Some locations in the Piedmont may
have highs in the mid-90s. The duration of the "heat wave" will
likely persist into Wednesday.

Confidence is starting to increase, however, in a cold front passing
through later in the week to put a lid on hot conditions. A weak mid-
level low looks to develop north of the Caribbean and drag some of
the 500mb heights southward, allowing more wiggle room for an
approaching cold front to move through. The arrival of the front, so
far, looks to be Thursday but there will likely be adjustments on
the final timing as we get closer to the event. Similarly,
impacts in regards to precipitation and severe weather will be
narrowed down as we get closer to the arrival date. While the
warm and moist conditions would certainly assist in creating an
unstable atmosphere, all the good wind shear looks to be to the
north as the mid-level jet passes by. After the front`s
passage, model guidance gets too messy to get a clear picture of
what can be expected in the future.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

VFR conditions expected through period with just some alto/cirrus
cloud coverage. Initial calm to light VRB winds this morning then
increasing mainly under 10 kts today out of the SW.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

High pressure will continue to dominate the regional weather pattern
through early next week, maintaining a period of sustained
stability. However, temperatures and humidity levels will steadily
climb each day, gradually increasing the likelihood of isolated
thunderstorms, primarily focused across the mountain terrain. By
Wednesday, the arrival of a cold front tracking across the region
will likely trigger numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms,
with activity persisting into Wednesday night.

Note: Bluefield (KBLF) ASOS is currently experiencing a technical
outage due to a major power supply failure. Replacement parts have
been ordered. ETA of repair is currently unknown. AMD NOT SKED is
being appended to its TAF.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record-breaking heat is possible early next week. Here are the
current records and our forecast.


Monday, May 18, 2026

StationHi Max THi Min T    Forecast High
Roanoke94 in 196269 in 1996     92
Lynchburg93 in 191168 in 1894     92
Danville93 in 197469 in 2015     93
Bluefield87 in 199666 in 2015     85
Blacksburg88 in 191161 in 2018     88


Tuesday, May 19, 2026

StationHi Max THi Min TForecast High
Roanoke96 in 196269 in 2022    94
Lynchburg93 in 196266 in 2022    93
Danville95 in 196269 in 1962    94
Bluefield89 in 191166 in 1977    85
Blacksburg91 in 191161 in 1938    88

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CG
AVIATION...AB
CLIMATE...RCS