Roanoke, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

512
FXUS61 KRNK 221121
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
621 AM EST Mon Dec 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the region today will slide east throughout
the day, and give way to a weak low pressure system and warm
front lifting across the Ohio valley and central Appalachians
late tonight and into Tuesday. This will bring some light
showers to mountain locations, with West Virginia seeing the
highest rain chances. Another high pressure system pushes into
the region through the middle of the week before another weak
low pressure system looks to push into the region on Christmas
day bringing the chance for light rain showers once again to the
area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 230 AM EST Monday...

Key Message:

1) Quiet weather is expected through today before light rain
   pushes into mountain locations tonight.

2) Some light freezing rain can`t be ruled out across
   Greenbrier, Bath, and Summers counties tonight.

Surface high pressure over the region today will lead to mostly
clear skies early before upper level cirrus and some mid level
clouds push into the region around mid day. A warm front and
upper level clipper system will slide through the Ohio valley
and into the central Appalachians starting late tonight, which
will bring some light rain showers to mountain locations. Some
light freezing rain can`t be ruled out for higher terrain
locations across SE West Virginia where temperatures will hang
around the freezing mark for a couple of hours as rain starts.
These temperatures look to quickly rise above freezing prior to
sunrise as warm air advection continues to funnel warmer air
into the region from the south as the aforementioned warm front
lifts north. This freezing rain may lead to isolated slick spots
across the aforementioned areas for the Tuesday morning commute;
however, confidence is not high enough in widespread
accumulations at this time to issue a Winter Weather Advisory.

While temperatures this morning will start in the low 20s
areawide, they will climb into the mid to upper 40s west of the
Blue Ridge, and upper 40s to low 50s east of the Blue Ridge
today. Low temperatures Tuesday morning will fall to near or
just above freezing for the area as warm air advection and thick
cloud cover keeps the region slightly warmer.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 AM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

1. Temperatures trend much milder through the period.

2. Two quick shots of light precipitation possible - the first on
Tuesday in the west - the second Christmas Eve and Day primarily
across the mountains as patchy light rain.

On Tuesday, our region will be on the backside of a departing
shortwave trough. West to northwest flow behind this feature will
bring 20 to 30 mph wind gusts to the mountains and 15 to 20 mph
gusts across the Piedmont region. For the mountains, these winds
will provide an upslope component to help realize some remaining
light rain for far western sections of the area. The activity is
expected to wane by daybreak Wednesday. These same west to northwest
winds will yield subsidence, and dry weather to the Piedmont.

Wednesday into Christmas, an upper ridge will be building across
central CONUS with its axis slowly shifting eastward through the
period. This will result in building heights also over our region,
along with increasing temperatures. A look at the latest NAEFS 850mb
temperatures offers southern parts of the area on Wednesday with
values within the 90 to 97.5 percentile of the 30-year CFSR
climatology. For Thursday, the entire region is expected to be
within this high percentile.

While we will be very far from seeing any snowflakes for Christmas,
patchy light rain across the mountains is still expected. A
shortwave trough is expected to head southeast on the northeast side
of the building upper ridge. While the bulk of the feature`s energy
and lift is expected to remain north of our area, we may be clipped
enough for western and northern areas to see patchy light rain
Christmas Eve night and Christmas Day. This will be far from a
washout, with amounts during both periods likely under one-tenth of
an inch. The farther east and south within the forecast area one
resides, the lesser the chance of this light rain. For Thursday
night, coverage across the mountains will be on the decrease during
the evening hours. However, with the approach of daybreak Friday,
coverage may increase a little in response to our next approaching
system.

Confidence in the expected temperature tend is high. Confidence in
the extent and timing of the patchy light rain for both periods is
moderate.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 230 AM EST Monday...

Key Messages

1. Well above normal temperatures for Friday, a little cooler, but
still above normal for the weekend.

2. Two rounds of rain for primarily western parts of the region
- the first Friday into Friday night - the second Saturday
night into Sunday

The surge in temperatures which start mid-week is expected to
continue into Friday. We will see the flattening of the upper ridge
in response to the passage of a shortwave trough over and southeast
of the Great Lakes. However, warm air advection in advance of this
trough will still be in place until the passage of the system`s cold
front on Friday night. The latest NAEFS 850mb temperatures offer
values within the the 90 to 99 percentile of the 30-year CFSR
climatology for our region on Friday. As the shortwave trough
crosses to our north, we are expecting light rain to arrive across
primarily western and northern parts of the region for Friday and
Friday night, concluding across the mountains late Friday night. The
average temperature on Friday may be around 25 degrees above normal
for this time of year.

By Saturday, the axis of the now flattened upper ridge is expected
to progress east of our region. To our west, a more potent trough is
expected to develop over central CONUS Saturday night into Sunday.
As this feature progresses eastward, a cold front is expected to
sweep across the Mississippi Valley and reach western portions of
our area early Sunday morning. The result will be increasing chance
of rain in advance of this system across the mountains Saturday
night, with the rain spreading east during the day Sunday coincident
to the front`s position.

Confidence in the temperature trends is high. Confidence in the
time/extent of the rain is on the low side of moderate as timing is
still in question.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 600 AM EST Monday...

VFR conditions look to prevail through the entire TAF period for
all terminals except BLF and LWB where some MVFR CIGs look to
develop towards the early morning hours on Tuesday. Light and
variable winds are expected to become southerly to
southeasterly by the mid morning hours today. These winds
should remain at around 5 knots or less through the TAF period.
Some LLWS looks to develop at nearly all terminals except LYH
towards the early morning hours on Tuesday as the next weather
system pushes its way into the region. Outside of the MVFR
restrictions at BLF and LWB, and the LLWS, there are no other
Aviation concerns at this time.


.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Some gusty west/northwest winds develop on Tuesday as the warm
front lifts north and pushes out of the region. High pressure
returns mid week before an additional upper level system pushes
into the region on Thursday possibly bringing Sub-VFR conditions
to the area to end the holiday week.

Tuesday night-Wednesday, mainly VFR.

Wed night-Christmas...light rain showers in the mountains with
sub-VFR possible. Mainly VFR east.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EB
NEAR TERM...EB
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...EB