Roanoke, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

926
FXUS61 KRNK 021355
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
955 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front over the southern Appalachians will slowly move
north today and tonight, producing considerable cloud cover and
the chance of some light rain or drizzle. Temperatures will
remain relatively cool. By Thursday, the warm front will move
north of our region, introducing much warmer temperatures.
Showers and thunderstorms will be possible from the Ohio Valley
into the northern Mid-Atlantic where the front will stall and
remain nearly stationary from Thursday through Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 950 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is high for considerable cloudiness today
and relatively cool temperatures.

2) Chance of light rain or drizzle mainly along the Blue Ridge
today and tonight.

Low clouds and wedge in place will hold temperatures down today
in the typical cold air damming locations along/either side of
the Blue Ridge into the Piedmont, while locations west of I-77
warm into the 60s to around 70, with wedged locations in the
50s.

Some light rain/drizzle will be propagating north along/near the
Blue Ridge through the afternoon.

Previous discussion...


High pressure centered to our northeast will promote a cool
stable airmass on the east side of the mountains today. East to
southeast wind flow will advect moisture into the forecast area
from the Atlantic, resulting in a layer of stratus along and
east of the Appalachian Divide. This cloud layer is forecast to
persist until a warm front lifts north and through the area by
Thursday. Until then, this will mute temperatures, favoring
little temperature rise today with highs struggling to get any
warmer than the 50s. Exception will be areas west of the Divide
where readings from Richlands to Bristol will reach the 70s.
Temperatures in the 60s may also occur south and east of
Danville, but this may not occur until later in the day. A
nearly saturated cloud base is forecast VCNTY of the Blue Ridge
with high resolution models supporting light rain, drizzle
and/or fog along the Blue Ridge Parkway with little or no
measurable QPF. Winds will be relatively light on the stable,
east side of the mountains. Winds will be gusty on the west side
of the Appalachian Divide (Smyth, Tazewell, far western Mercer
and western Greenbrier), where the southeast low level jet may
mix to the surface supporting wind gusts between 25 to 40 mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 300 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1) Isolated showers and storms possible Thursday and Friday, mainly
along/west of the Blue Ridge.

2) Near record highs possible Friday and Saturday.

A strong high pressure system in the western Atlantic Ocean will
continue to drive warm, moist air into the RNK CWA throughout the
period. At the same time, a stalled front will be off to the
northwest across the Ohio River Valley. This pattern will cause
southeasterly winds to gust to near 25 mph in the higher elevations
on Thursday into Friday. The winds will also be upsloping, which
will keep increased cloud cover and scattered showers along the Blue
Ridge. Combined with diurnal heating, a few afternoon thunderstorms
will be possible each day of the period, particularly along/west of
the Blue Ridge due to surface forcing from the proximity to the
frontal boundary. Total QPF will remain light, around 0.10-0.20",
according to GFS ensemble means. The piedmont locations will likely
remain dry, though a stray shower is not out of the question.
Saturday looks to be the quietest day, with mid-level dry air moving
in from the southwest, which will suppress any convection.

Temperatures during the period will be very warm, nearly 20 degrees
above normal, with some areas threatening record highs. Highs on
Thursday will be in the mid 70s to low 80s, with Friday/Saturday
having highs in the upper 80s to near 90 in the piedmont. Overnight
lows will also remain very warm, in the low 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 300 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1) A cold front moves through Sunday, bringing widespread showers
and storms.

2) Temperatures fall back to below normal for early next week.

The cold front finally begins to move east Saturday night and head
into the Mid-Atlantic on Sunday. The main line of showers and storms
will reach the western counties mid-morning and push through the
piedmont by Sunday evening. A wetting rainfall is expected area-wide
as it moves through. Behind the front, things quiet down as high
pressure ridges back over the area. Northwest flow may provide a few
upslope rain/snow showers late Monday for the western facing
mountains in West Virginia, but confidence is currently low in this.
Otherwise, dry weather remains in place through the end of the
period.

Temperatures stay well above normal on Sunday ahead of the front, in
the 70s/80s. Monday will see highs drop down into the 50s/60s due to
the FROPA the night before. By Tuesday, highs will be in the 40s/50s
with a few low 60s in the eastern piedmont. Lows remain mild Sunday
morning, in the 60s, before dropping into the 40s/50s on Monday
morning. Midweek lows will dip even lower, down into the 30s area-
wide.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 400 AM EDT Wednesday...

Confidence is high for MVFR to IFR cigs today and tonight.

Easterly wind flow will promote a large area of low level
cloudiness along and east of the Appalachian Divide today. The
east-southeast wind flow should accelerate west of the Blue
Ridge scouring low level cloud cover west of the Appalachian
Divide, but promoting wind gusts up to 25-30 knots at BLF and
15-20 knots at BCB and LWB. Watch out for partial ridge
obscuration and potential for lowering cloud base VCNTY of the
southern Blue Ridge between Roanoke and Asheville where the
entire Blue Ridge escarpment may become enshrouded in the cloud
base. Light rain or drizzle may restrict visibility near the
Blue Ridge.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Poor flying conditions are expected Wednesday night as a warm
front crosses the Mid Atlantic. Models are depicting a growing
threat for low level wind shear from the south that could exceed
40 knots, especially west of the Blue Ridge. Rain coverage will
increase, while ceilings and visibilities could drop to IFR or
perhaps lower. A cold front may stall across the Ohio River
Valley during the remainder of the week and into the weekend.
Chances of rain and MVFR conditions remain possible for Thursday
though Sunday as the flow turns more towards the southwest.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM/WP
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...PM