Roanoke, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

609
FXUS61 KRNK 190524
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
124 AM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms can be expected
this afternoon. An approaching front will bring a better
coverage of storms Thursday. Mainly dry weather is expected into
next week while temperatures soar to well above normal.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 730 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Message:

1) Slight Risk for severe storms Thursday.

Outflow from late afternoon storms currently playing out along
I-40 corridor in NC. Very little if any shower activity
remaining elsewhere per loss of daytime heating.

As showers/storms fade this evening will be watching line of
storms associated with cold front crossing the Ohio Valley. This
activity may arrive toward daybreak Thursday for our WV and far
western VA counties.

Models still advertising mainly a broken line of showers/storms
falling apart as they move into WV Thu morning, then firing up
along pre-frontal/lee trough east of the Blue Ridge by
midday/early afternoon Thursday with a secondary area of storms
across WV into the Alleghanys with the actual cold front.

Enough heating is expected across the moist warm sector with
dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s east of the Appalachians
by Thursday afternoon. This will result in moderate to
potentially strong instability across the Piedmont.

Strong/damaging winds should be the main threat. Hail also
possible but would take really tall storms to create large hail
in this type environment. Tornadic threat is low and mainly
north of us where better shear exists.

Keeping temperatures on the muggy/humid/warm side, but high
temps Thursday could be impacted if more clouds/storms arrive
earlier especially in the mountains. With humidity, heat indices
should max out in the mid 90s in the Piedmont before storms
arrive.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1) Showers and storms clear out Thursday night.

2) Quiet, dry and hot weather expected this weekend.

Showers and storms will continue to linger across the area Thursday
evening, as the front begins to move into the area. The severe
threat will wind down, as the main line of storms will be moving out
of the eastern Piedmont late Thursday, with residual showers along
the front back to the west of the Blue Ridge as it pushes through
overnight. High pressure takes over behind the front, with drier air
moving in. An upper-ridge also builds overhead, further suppressing
convection, keeping quiet weather across the area. Although
temperatures will not lower much behind the front on Friday,
dewpoints will fall into the 50s to low 60s, thanks to the
aforementioned drier air. No further rain is expected in the period,
as high pressure settles in to the region for the weekend.

Temperatures will be near normal behind the front Friday, with highs
in the upper 70s to upper 80s. Highs increase heading into the
weekend, with 80s area-wide and a few low 90s in the Piedmont. Lows
will be in the 60s area-wide, though high 50s are expected in areas
west of the Blue Ridge on Saturday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1) Dry and hot weather continues into next week.

2) Heat index will likely reach over 100 in the Piedmont each
day.

The pattern continues for Sunday and into next week, with strong
high pressure both at the surface and aloft suppressing convection,
and allowing for temperatures to soar. Although one or two showers
or storms are possible each afternoon, chances are very low through
Monday, as sunny skies will continue across the area. By late
Tuesday and into Wednesday, there is some discrepancy amongst models
as to whether the upper ridge continues to hold together or if it
starts to slightly break down midweek. Currently, the ridge is
expected to potentially slightly weaken but still remain in place.
This will allow for a slight increase in PoPs beginning Wednesday,
to around 20-30% for the western half of the RNK CWA, as isolated
storms will be possible due to Atlantic moisture moving in at the
mid-levels. The same is expected on Wednesday, with PoPs increasing
to around 30-40%.

Temperatures will continue to be the talking point of the forecast
next week, as the heat is on with highs in the upper 80s west of the
Blue Ridge, with mid to upper 90s across the Piedmont each day of
the period. Some models have highs approaching 100 there, which is
not out of the question if things continue to trend hotter. Heat
indices are expected to be around 100-105 for the eastern Piedmont
Monday through Wednesday. Lows stay consistent each morning, in the
mid 60s to low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 130 AM EDT Thursday...

Mostly VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period;
however, with an approaching/passing cold front today may bring
brief periods of MVFR to LIFR restrictions in and around shower
and thunderstorm activity this afternoon and evening at all
terminals. Southwest winds will also pick up during the late
morning hours to all terminals, with gusts of 20-25 knots
expected until the late evening hours. Winds behind the frontal
passage will transition to a more westerly/southwesterly flow;
however, gusts should diminish around 00 UTC. With westerly
winds expected post frontal, and some lingering moisture in the
low and mid levels, some MVFR CIGs look to develop at BLF and
LWB towards the end of this TAF period just before 06 UTC. VFR
conditions are expected for the remainder of the TAF sites
through the end of the period.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

High pressure will build across the region Friday and through
the weekend, so anticipating mainly VFR conditions from Friday
through Monday, outside any late night and early morning
mountain valley fog at LWB/BCB. The next rain chances look to
return late Tuesday, which could return restrictions back to the
area.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EB/WP
NEAR TERM...PM/WP
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...EB