Richmond, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

165
FXUS61 KAKQ 230335
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1035 PM EST Sun Feb 22 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
- Snow totals have trended down for much of interior VA.
- Winter weather headlines have been adjusted to remove some of
  the Advisories and downgrade far western tier of the Warnings.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Strong coastal low pressure continues to lift ENE farther
off the Delmarva coast this evening, bringing heavy
accumulating snow and strong winds, primarily to E/NE portions
of the area, along with hazardous marine conditions.

2) A few showers are possible across the Northern Neck and
Eastern Shore Tuesday night. With widespread showers likely
Thursday.

3) Minor coastal flooding is forecast with the overnight/early
Monday high tide cycle, particularly along the Atlantic coast
across the northern Eastern Shore. In addition, large breaking
waves and high surf may contribute to beach erosion along the
Atlantic coast of Accomack and Worcester Counties.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 1000 PM EST Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Strong coastal low pressure continues to lift
ENE farther off the Delmarva coast this evening, bringing heavy
accumulating snow and strong winds, primarily to E/NE portions
of the area, along with hazardous marine conditions.

Winter WX Advisories have been cancelled for portions of central
and southside VA as accumulating snow has mostly ended w/
temperatures above freezing and only minimal impacts. Downgraded
the western tier of Warnings to Advisories given lower snow
amounts. Elsewhere, remaining Warnings continue.

Evening weather analysis shows an negatively tilted upper
trough situated across VA/NC, with strong sfc low pressure (~990
mb) centered off the Delmarva coast. Latest radar imagery and
VSBYs across the region show that most areas along and W of the
I-95 corridor have started to see lighter precip rates over the
past 1-2 hrs, with NW winds advecting in slightly drier air.
This has kept sfc temperatures mainly in the 33-34 F range
across the RIC metro, and limited snow accumulations to grassy
surfaces. There are a few bands of snow aligned from NNW to SSE
that could still bring some additional snow accumulations, so
while a cancellation to some of the Winter WX Advisories is
being considered, have not done so just yet as we are monitoring
the additional snow bands.

Elsewhere, closer to the coast, there has been 1-2 hrs worth of
moderate to locally heavy snow into the Peninsula and Hampton
Roads. Have received snow reports of 1-2" in these areas, with
the potential for seeing up to 3", though the rates are now
decreasing. Through the late evening and overnight timeframe,
the bulk of the additional moderate to heavy snow should become
confined to east central VA and the eastern shore where Winter
Storm Warnings and Blizzard Warnings are in effect. H85-H7 FGEN
band becomes aligned N-S across the eastern shore over the next
few hrs, gradually pushing off the coast between 06-12Z. Expect
the heaviest snow to occur from now through ~2AM, before the
deeper moisture and banding slide off to the NE. The sfc low is
forecast to continue to deepen to 970-975mb before 12Z/Monday
morning as it moves well off to the ENE. With the strong winds,
blowing and drifting snow, and VSBYs of 1/4SM or less are
expected. While snowfall accumulations were adjusted down across
much of the CWA W of the Bay, totals ranging from 8-14"
(highest on the MD eastern shore) are still expected. Snow
continues across the Eastern Shore (and perhaps the Northern
Neck) through much of the day Monday, but will become more
showery in nature with only minimal additional accumulation
after 12Z Mon morning. The Northern Neck is the middle ground
between the blizzard across the Eastern Shore and the lower
snowfall totals farther inland. Snowfall totals here will likely
range from 3-4" closer to I-95 to 4-6"+ closer to the Ches Bay
and Potomac. Wind gusts up to 35 mph are possible here as well.
As such, Winter Storm Warnings remain in effect across this area
through Mon. Elsewhere, a few scattered snow or rain/snow
showers are possible later Monday morning through early Monday
afternoon. Highs Monday in the mid 30s NE to the mid 40s to the
SW, with much of the region into the lower 40s.

Will note that Mon night`s lows are expected to drop into the
20s (low-mid 20s for most) which will allow for refreezing of
any wet and untreated surface. In addition to the snow, breezy
to windy conditions are expected across SE VA and NE NC this
evening into early Mon morning. Wind gusts inland and across the
peninsulas could be as high as 30 to 35 mph during the system.
While across the coastline and parts of SE VA wind gusts could
reach 45 mph. Wind Advisories remain in effect from 7 PM tonight
until 10 AM Monday morning for parts of SE VA and Eastern
Currituck County. Overall, these breezy and windy conditions
could result in down trees and damage to powerlines. They could
also result in near whiteout conditions across the Northern and
Middle Neck where the heavier snow is progged.


KEY MESSAGE 2...A few showers are possible across the Northern
Neck and Eastern Shore Tuesday night. With widespread showers
likely Thursday.

An area of low pressure tracks well to the north (across the
Great Lakes and New England) Wed into Wed night. A few light
rain or snow showers are possible across the Northern Neck and
Eastern Shore Tue night, however, confidence is low.

There is a stronger signal for an area of low pressure tracking
across the Ohio Valley into southern New England Thu into Thu
night. Widespread showers are expected ahead of the cold front
from this system with the potential for >0.5" of rain. This
looks to be a warmer system with plain rain as opposed to wintry
weather.


KEY MESSAGE 3...Minor coastal flooding is forecast with the
overnight/early Monday high tide cycle, particularly along the
Atlantic coast across the northern Eastern Shore. In addition,
large breaking waves and high surf may contribute to beach
erosion along the Atlantic coast of Accomack and Worcester
Counties.

Strong onshore flow is expected later today as low pressure
strengthens offshore. As a result, tidal anomalies are expected to
rise, especially along the Atlantic coast and particularly across
the northern Eastern Shore which will be closest to the strong low.
Ocean City has the potential to see high-end minor tidal flooding
with the overnight/early Monday morning high tide. Down the coast,
minor flooding is also forecast at Chincoteague. A Coastal Flood
Advisory remain in effect for Accomack and Worcester Counties
for the overnight/early Monday morning high tide. Additional
Coastal Flood Advisories have been issued for portions of SE VA
bordering the lower Ches Bay and Virginia Beach. Tides remain
elevated through Monday before gradually diminishing early next
week.

Seas rapidly build with the increasing NE later today, especially
along the northern Eastern Shore where winds will be the
strongest/remain onshore the longest. Large breaking waves of 7 to
11 feet are expected in the surf zone, with the highest waves at the
Maryland Atlantic Beaches. A High Surf Advisory has been issued for
Accomack and eastern Worcester Counties tonight into Monday morning.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 700 PM EST Sunday...

IFR to low-end MVFR conditions prevail this evening with winds
shifting to the NNW. Mostly SN prevails, but with marginal
temps, areas where the precip rates lightened up have transitioned
back to RA/SN. VSBYs will be improving at RIC, and eventually
PHF/ORF between 03-06Z. However, moderate to heavy Sn continues
at SBY, and may see blizzard conditions at times through ~09Z,
as winds will frequently gust to 35 kt with occasional gusts as
high as 40-45 kt possible. Could see brief periods of VSBYs as
low as 1/8-1/16SM during this time, and have reflected this
potential with a PROB30 group for 0SM VSBYs in the TAF. Blowing
snow is likely at SBY as well, especially after midnight.
Elsewhere, NW winds gust to 25-35 kt. CIGs rise to MVFR at the
VA/NC terminals late tonight but 1/2-2SM snow will continue at
SBY through at least mid to late Monday AM before finally
tapering off. Breezy WNW winds continue on Monday.

Outlook: VFR conditions return later Monday and persist through
the middle of the week.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 305 PM EST Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Dangerous marine conditions develop this afternoon and especially
  tonight due to gale to storm force winds and high seas.

- Storm and Gale Warnings go into effect at 4 PM until early Monday
  afternoon.

Coastal low pressure is rapidly deepening east of VA Beach this
afternoon as the upper trough over the Midwest takes on a negative
tilt. Winds so far this afternoon are generally NNW 15-20 with gusts
25 kt in the Ches Bay and 20-25 gusts 30 kt offshore. Waves have
increased to 2-4 ft with seas ranging from 4-6 ft N and 5-7 ft S.

Dangerous marine conditions are expected to develop over the next
few hours and continue into Monday as the low lifts up the coast.
The low is forecast to strengthen to ~985mb over the local waters
this evening/tonight and ~970mb as the low starts to pull away
around sunrise Monday. All Storm and Gale headlines go into effect
at 4PM. Winds become N to NW this evening and increase to 30-35 kt
with gusts to 40-45 kt. For the coastal waters north of Cape Charles
Light, winds increase to 35-45 kt with gusts of 55 to 60 kt
possible. Peak winds are expected to occur between 7 PM this evening
and 10 AM Monday before diminishing to 20-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt
later Monday afternoon and lingering through Monday night (with the
wind direction remaining NW or WNW). SCA winds are expected to
continue through much of Tuesday morning before finally dropping
below SCA levels during the day on Tuesday as high pressure returns
to the area. Another round of marginal SCA conditions is possible
late Tuesday night into Wednesday and again later Thursday into
Friday.

Waves build to 4-6 ft (up to 7 ft at the mouth of the Bay) this
evening and linger in the 3-5 ft range into Tuesday. Seas will
continue to increase this evening, peaking at 10-15 ft N and 6-9 ft
S early Monday.


Coastal Flooding: Coastal Flood Advisories continue for the Eastern
Shore where Ocean City will approach moderate flood stage tonight.
Coastal Flood Advisories have also been issued for Northampton
County as well as Norfolk/Portsmouth and Virginia Beach with
Lynnhaven forecast to exceed minor flood thresholds tonight.
Additional minor flooding is possible on subsequent high tide
cycles, especially along and near the Atlantic coast.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Blizzard Warning until 7 PM EST Monday for MDZ021>025.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EST Monday for MDZ024-025.
     High Surf Advisory until 10 AM EST Monday for MDZ025.
NC...Wind Advisory until 10 AM EST Monday for NCZ102.
VA...Blizzard Warning until 7 PM EST Monday for VAZ099-100.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EST Monday for VAZ095-
     098>100.
     High Surf Advisory until 10 AM EST Monday for VAZ099.
     Wind Advisory until 10 AM EST Monday for VAZ095-098-525.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST Monday for VAZ064-082-
     083-089-093-095>098-511-512-517-518-524-525.
     Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST Monday for VAZ075>078-
     084>086-090-519>523.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 1 PM EST Monday for ANZ630>638-656-658.
     Storm Warning until 1 PM EST Monday for ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...HET/LKB/RMM
AVIATION...ERI/LKB
MARINE...AJB/RHR