Richmond, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

292
FXUS61 KAKQ 221147
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
647 AM EST Sun Dec 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather and colder temperatures are expected today through
Monday, as an Arctic high builds into and over the region. A
slow moderating trend in temperatures will start Tuesday. The
weather pattern potentially becomes more unsettled by later next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 400 AM EST Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Cold and dry conditions are expected today.

Early this morning, strong high pressure (~1036 mb) was centered
over the ern Great Lakes, ridging S into the Gulf Coast States.

Strong high pressure centers north of the area by later today,
leading to dry wx with plentiful sunshine. While we will see
plenty of sun, high temps will only reach into the mid to upper
30s for most of the area, and may not get above freezing for
portions of the Lower MD Eastern Shore, due to the very cold
airmass over the area (850 mb temps -8 to -11C).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 AM EST Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Cold and dry conditions continue tonight and Monday with high
  pressure remaining in control.

- Weak low pressure potentially develops south of the region
  late Monday night into Tuesday night.

Very cold tonight with high pressure centered over the NE U.S.
and New England and ridging down over the Mid Atlc region. This
will result in light to calm winds and a clear sky. Lows will
drop into the teens for most of the area, and lower 20s across
the SE). High pressure becomes centered just offshore of the
New England coast on Mon. Temps will be slightly warmer compared
to today, with highs ranging from the upper 30s NNW, to the mid
40s SE. Clouds will increase across the north Mon night into Tue
morning, as weak disturbances passes well to the north of the
local area. In addition, the GFS/NAM continue to develop weak
low pressure off the SC coast Mon night into Tue morning, which
would also bring increasing cloud cover across the southern
half of the area. Temps likely drop off quickly Mon evening and
during the first half of Mon night, before becoming steady or
gradually rising toward Tue morning.

The weather on Tue into Tue night will remain dependent on the
potential for a weak low pressure system moving along or just
off the NC coast. The 00z GFS is the most aggressive, spreading
light rain into NE/NC and SE VA for later Tue morning into Tue
evening. Meanwhile, the 00z ECMWF does not develop this low,
keeping the area dry. For now, have increased PoPs to 15-35%
from NW to SE over SE VA into NE NC. In addition, there is the
potential we could see some very light rain or snow showers
across northern portions of the Lower MD Eastern Shore Tue
morning, due to the weak system passing to our north. Highs on
Tue will range from the mid 40s to around 50. Not quite as cold
Tue night compared to previous nights, with lows ranging from
the upper 20s to the upper 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 415 AM EST Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Temperatures gradually moderate through the forecast period.

- Generally quiet weather through the week, potentially becoming
more unsettled by next weekend.

Generally dry weather is expected to start off the forecast period
on Wed (Christmas Day), with high pressure centered near New
England and extending down into the local area. There will be an
increase in cloud cover during Wed, as a weak disturbance likely
passes to our south. Highs will range from the mid 40s across
the NNW, to the lower 50s SE.

On Thu and beyond, sfc high pressure will continue to linger
near or over New England, while upper level ridging builds over
the Eastern US. With the ridging aloft, a moderating trend in
temps is expected through the period, with slightly above average
temps returning on Fri and Sat. Generally partly sunny and dry on
Thu and partly sunny or mostly cloudy on Fri. There may be a
slight or small chance of rain later Fri or Fri night, as a
variety of disturbances start to approach the region from the
west. The best chance for rainfall will be on Sat, as a stronger
system approaches. However, there is still plenty of uncertainty
regarding the specifics of this system. It does appear that
conditions become more unsettled during the weekend timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 645 AM EST Sunday...

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all TAF sites from
this morning into Mon morning. Northerly winds will average 5-10
kt through this aftn with gusts up to 20 kt at the coastal TAF
sites. Expect a mainly clear sky during today, with the only
exception being BKN stratocu in Bay streamers that would affect
the VA eastern shore/VA Beach/Currituck NC, and possibly
ORF/ECG by this aftn.

Outlook: Dry/VFR conditions continue with light winds Mon into
Tue morning. Increasing moisture and more cloud cover (and
possibly some light rain) will occur, mainly in NE NC and SE VA
Tue into Tue evening.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 335 AM EST Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Slowly improving boating conditions this morning through
  tonight, with calmer marine conditions expected Monday
  through midweek.

- Small Craft Advisories for the bay and Atlantic coastal waters
  come down from late morning through early evening, with Sub-
  SCA conditions expected for much of the week ahead.

Latest analysis reveals cold ~1036mb high pressure slowly
building south to the north-northwest, as deepening low pressure
continues to lift north into the eastern Gulf of St Lawrence.
Seas locally have begun to slowly subside thanks to weakening
winds and diminishing swells, averaging 4-5 ft, highest 10-20+
nm offshore...waves in the bay are 2-3 ft.

No major changes to the going forecast, though we have dropped
SCA over the Currituck Sound and lower James River with
diminishing winds. Elsewhere, Small Craft Advisories remain in
effect through most of Sunday morning for the Bay, with NNW
winds of 15-20 kt slowly diminishing through the morning. SCA
flags remain over the coastal waters through this afternoon,
slowly dropping off from N to S into early evening. 5 ft seas
linger longest in the srn waters and the SCA there is in effect
through 00z/7 PM Sunday. Note that 4 ft waves at the mouth of
the bay are also possible through the afternoon hours, which is
why SCA for the mouth of the Bay lingers through early afternoon.

Thereafter, much weaker winds are then expected from Monday
through midweek. Modifying cold high pressure builds toward the
area, but remains centered just to our N. A coastal trough
slowly sharpens Monday night into midweek, resulting in light
winds turning W-NW Tuesday, with winds turning NNE Tuesday night
into Wednesday as a weak sfc low develops across the coastal
Carolinas, with winds becoming NNW on Christmas Day/Wednesday
as another (weaker) cold front pushes through. Winds largely
look sub- SCA through most of the week.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
     ANZ630>632.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ634.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ650-
     652-654.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ656-
     658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...AJB/TMG
LONG TERM...AJB/TMG
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...MAM/SW