Portsmouth, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

257
FXUS61 KAKQ 160641
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
241 AM EDT Sat May 16 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Added a slight chance of showers tonight across the far north. In
addition, added a slight chance of Sunday afternoon
showers/thunderstorms across central Virginia. &&

.KEY MESSAGES...

1) Above normal temperatures today. A slight chance for showers
across the far north tonight.

2) Well above normal temperatures Sunday-Wednesday. A small chance
for showers/storms across central VA Sunday afternoon. Otherwise,
little appreciable rainfall is expected until at least Wednesday
night or later.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

As of 215 AM EDT Saturday

KEY MESSAGE 1...Above normal temperatures today. A slight chance for
showers across the far north tonight.

Surface high pressure has shifted off the coast and upper heights
will build today. Other than some high clouds, expect a mostly sunny
day with temperatures rising above normal into the mid 80s inland
and lower 80s closer to the coast. Latest guidance suggests that a
few showers may move eastward tonight across the far north in
response to a weakening short wave over Iowa and Wisconsin. The 00z
CAMS suggest the best chance for this activity will stay north of
the area, however there is enough support from the CAMS to introduce
slight chance PoPs across the far north into the MD eastern shore
tonight. Rainfall, if any, will not amount to much due the very dry
air aloft.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Well above normal temperatures Sunday-Wednesday. A
small chance for showers/storms across central VA Sunday afternoon.
Otherwise, little appreciable rainfall is expected until at least
Wednesday night or later.

Big story through Wednesday will be the summer-like high
temperatures each day. Sunday will be the start of widespread
temperatures in the 90s. Many places away from the immediate coast
and eastern shore will see temperatures in the lower 90s with the
multi-model ensemble showing an 80%+ probability of 90F+, although
mid 90s not expected with multi-model ensemble showing <10%
probability of 95F+ on Sunday. The REFS and NBM suggest some
isolated convective development Sunday afternoon over central
Virginia given the MLCAPE values of nearly 1000 j/kg. However, given
the building heights across the region, the atmosphere may remain
capped through the afternoon. Nonetheless, the lee trough may be
just enough for an isolated storm on Sunday afternoon and have
maintained the slight chance PoPs from the NBM on Sunday afternoon.

Otherwise, the remainder of the week through Wednesday looks dry and
hot. Ensemble guidance suggests broad support for widespread
temperatures in the low to mid 90s each day through Wednesday as
850mb temps are around 18C. There is overall a very low 1-3 deg
interquartile range for MaxT each day so confidence is high in these
temperatures each day. Fortunately, while it will be quite hot, dew
points will struggle to rise out of the low 60s each day so heat
index values will not be much different than the actual temperature.
In fact, the NBM essentially has a 0% probability of heat index
values rising to 100 or greater next week.

Still a great amount of uncertainty regarding the frontal system for
Thursday. Will maintain PoPs from Wed afternoon through Friday, with
the highest PoPs on Thursday. This front will be slow to move south
of the area, so there will likely be a period of unsettled weather
later next week. However, given the zonal flow aloft with any
significant moisture from the Gulf being cut off from the area, am
not expecting significant precipitation amounts. In fact, the NBM
only shows about a 60% probability of at least 0.50" with less than
a 30% probability of 1".

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 200 AM EDT Saturday...

VFR conditions expected through the period with generally high
clouds. South winds will become gusty later this morning into this
afternoon as the high pressure shifts offshore. A very small chance
for a shower late in the forecast period at SBY, but no flight
restrictions are expected.

Outlook...VFR conditions expected through early next week as high
pressure remains in control. There is a small chance for a storm in
central Virginia Sunday afternoon. South winds each afternoon may
gust to 15-20kt as high pressure remains stationary off the coast.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 245 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:


- Mainly Sub-SCA conditions are expected over the rivers,
  Currituck Sound and the Chesapeake Bay through the weekend
  and into early next week with primarily southerly winds.

- Building seas could result in a brief SCA over the nearshore
Atlantic coastal waters Saturday night into early Sunday morning.


Conditions are improving over the marine areas this afternoon as
high pressure builds in over the area. Latest obs indicate NW winds
of 10-15kt and gusts to 20kt. Seas are 3-4ft and waves in the bay
are around 2ft. All Small Craft Advisories were allowed to expire as
of 2pm.

High pressure slides offshore tonight and remains more or less in
place through at least early next week. Wind will further diminish
to 5-10kt as they turn to the south tonight. Southerly winds pick up
to 10-15kt tomorrow afternoon on the backside of the high, then to
~20kt over the coastal waters during the evening and overnight hours
Saturday into Sunday. During this time, seas are forecast to build
to around 5ft, especially N of Cape Charles. SCAs will likely be
needed for the nearshore coastal waters off the Eastern Shore
tomorrow night. Held off for this cycle though since it is a more
marginal case and onset is over 24hrs out. SW winds diminish again
to around 10kt Sunday morning with seas dropping back to 3ft by the
afternoon. Expecting generally benign conditions thereafter until at
least mid week with southerly winds persisting.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT
     Sunday for ANZ650.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT Sunday
     for ANZ652-654-656.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 1 AM EDT Sunday
     for ANZ658.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MRD
AVIATION...MRD
MARINE...AC