Portsmouth, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

674
FXUS61 KAKQ 130745
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
Issued by National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
345 AM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will approach from the north today, and is
expected to become nearly stationary across northern portions of
the area on Saturday, before slowly dropping south Saturday
night through Sunday. This pattern will keep unsettled condition
sin place through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 345 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Unsettled weather, with locally heavy rain potential returns
  this afternoon and evening.

- Flood watch has been issued for most of the area as heavy rain
  could potentially lead to flash flooding.

Early morning weather analysis shows primarily zonal flow across
the area with a weak trough over the southern Mississippi
valley. At the surface, a 1022 Bermuda high continues to sit off
the east coast. While to the north the cold front that will
bring the showers and thunderstorms continues to slowly move
across central PA. Already ahead of the cold front a warm and
moist airmass is already making a return to much of the area as
dewpoints are already back in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
Temperatures as of 245 am are in the upper 60s to the north and
lower 70s further south. Skies remain partly cloudy as high
level cirrus move through the area. These clouds will not allow
temperatures to fall and lows this morning will be in the upper
60s to the north and lower 70s to the south.

For today, the airmass will be noticeably more humid, with dew
pts primarily into the lower 70s. Precipitable water values will
rise to 1.75" to 2.1". The upper low is forecast to tracking
slowly east through MO/AR Fri aftn, with another upper trough
across eastern Canada and New England, leading to a tightening
westerly flow over the mid-Atlantic. A frontal boundary is
expected to be nearly stationary over the northern Mid-Atlantic
region, potentially brushing our far northern counties this
evening. This will likely act as a trigger for convection in the
aftn/evening in tandem with the increasingly moist humid
airmass. It will probably be mainly dry in the morning, with
some localized seabreeze development by late morning/early aftn,
and other storm development across the mountains.

High-Res model guidance continues to depict higher PoPs by late
afternoon, and lasting through late tonight. The latest 0Z HREF
QPF values show a broad 10-30% chc for 3" in 3 hr across much of
central VA stretching to the VA Eastern Shore this aftn into
tonight. In addition, recent High-Res model guidance has QPF
values ranging between 1 to 2" across much of the northern half
of the CWA within the next 24 hrs. There could also be the
potential for locally higher amount`s with the stronger storms
especially in close proximity to the frontal boundary where the
ascent is greater. With high enough confidence in the forecast
a Flood watch has been issued for the northern half of the CWA
where the parameters look to be favorable. While the other half
of the area is not in the Flood watch there will be additional
showers and thunderstorms that could bring heavy rainfall and
cause very localized flooding. In addition to the Flash
flooding threat these showers and thunderstorms could
potentially bring gusty winds. Latest forecast sounds show
effective bulk shear values between 25 to 30 kt. This is
relatively weak but just enough to sustain multi-cell storms.
There is also a non-zero chance of a brief tornado threat. This
is the some enhanced low level shear along the front. High
temperatures have decreased slightly due to the increasing
clouds through the day. Highs will be in the upper 80s to around
90. For tonight the showers and thunderstorms should begin to
wind down as daytime heating is lost and the front pushes them
off shore. The front will continue to move south slightly south
then stall over the area. This will allow for Saturday to be
very similar to Today weather wise. Lows for tonight will be in
the lower 70s.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 345 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Continued unsettled over the weekend, with additional heavy
  rain possible.

- Additional rounds of heavy rain could lead to additional Flash
  flooding.

The front is expected to linger in the vicinity of the region
through the weekend, potentially dropping south into the
souther portions of the FA late Saturday night and into Sunday.
While this scenario remains uncertain, expect above normal PoPs
throughout the area, with the heaviest rain focused over the
northern and central zones Sat/Sat night, then probably more
across southern VA and NE NC on Sunday. Current deterministic
models show a moist airmass recovering across the area as PW
values are between 2 to 2.3". In addition, QPF values are 2-4"
for much of the region through Sunday evening, though with the
scattered tstms, locally higher amounts are likely. A Flood
Watch will most likely be needed/extended depending on what
occurs late Fri/Fri night. In addition, some of the local High-
Res guidance has shown showers and thunderstorms training over
areas that may have been saturated from the day prior. This
will assist in potential Flash flooding occurring quickly.Highs
remain warm Sat, in the mid to upper 80s, then trend cooler (at
least for the NE 1/2 of the area Sunday with the front
potentially to the south). Highs Sunday are forecast in the
mid/upper 80s SW to the mid 70s eastern shore. A Marginal SVR
risk will be possible (mainly for wind) due to slightly stronger
flow aloft, though a lot of uncertainty exists with respect to
specifics on the location of the front.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 345 AM EDT Friday...

Key Message:

- Daily shower and storm chances continue through the early-
  middle of next week.


The latest 0z/13 ensemble guidance from both the GFS and EURO
ensembles are in decent agreement through the long term.
Conditions continue to look unsettled to start the period,
through Monday, as an upper level trough passes through the
region. Will have likely PoPs again Monday, with highs near
normal upper 70s/lower 80s NE and into the upper 80s S. A bit
more uncertain heading into the middle of next week, as the
upper level ridge off the SE coast expands back north into the
local area, with some upper troughing lingering well off to our
W and NW. For now, following NBM yields a near climo pattern for
chc PoPs. By the middle of this week there is the potential of a
ridge building in across the area. This will lead to much warmer
temperatures across the area. There is the potential of heat
index values nearing 100 degrees. However, confidence is low at
this time and model trends will continue to be monitored.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 130 AM EDT Friday...

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the 6z TAF
period. Winds this morning remain light and variable across the
inland TAF sites. Winds across the coastal  sites remain out of
the SSE between 5 to 10 kt. Skies remain partly cloudy with some
high end cirrus moving across the area. Later this morning and
early afternoon latest model guidance shows showers forming
across all taf sites. Timing of these showers is unclear and a
TEMPO group has been added for all sites. By the afternoon the
showers will begin to strengthen into thunderstorms and prob30s
have been added. After sunset tonight the thunderstorm chances
dwindle. However, rain showers will prevail late this
afternoon. These showers and thunderstorms will bring MVFR
flight restrictions to all terminals.

Outlook: Scattered to numerous, mainly aftn/evening
showers/tstms return again Sat-Sun, bringing localized flight
restrictions in heavy rain and gusty winds. Rain chances remain
elevated above climo Monday, before dropping off by Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 345 AM EDT Friday...

Key Message:

- Relatively benign across the marine area into next week
  outside of convection.

A weak pressure pattern with a large Bermuda high in place has
led to E-SE winds across southern areas, and more of a SSW flow
along the Atlantic coast of the eastern shore, Seas are between
2 to 3 ft, with 1-2 ft waves in the Bay. Winds this are between
5 to 10 kt. Benign marine conditions are expected to last
through today and the weekend with a slight uptick in winds
Saturday. However, they will remain below SCA criteria. There is
the potential for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon
and evening. Any strong shower and thunderstorm will be handled
with a SMW. Waves are not expected to change much through today
as waves will be ~1ft across the bay and 2 to 3 ft across the
ocean. Rip currents are expected to remain low for today and
tomorrow.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HET/LKB
NEAR TERM...HET/LKB
SHORT TERM...HET/LKB
LONG TERM...HET/LKB
AVIATION...HET/LKB
MARINE...HET/LKB