Norfolk, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

103
FXUS61 KAKQ 021053
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
653 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains over the Mid-Atlantic region today, bringing
seasonal temperatures. Very warm temperatures are expected from
Thursday through Sunday as a large ridge builds across the East
Coast. Shower and storm chances increase Thursday into Friday as a
backdoor cold front moves into the area and stalls. A higher chance
for showers and storms arrives Sunday into Sunday night as a cold
front moves across the area. Much cooler temperatures are expected
early next week with the potential for widespread frost Tuesday
night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 650 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Partly to mostly cloudy and seasonable today.

Early morning sfc analysis depicted an area of high pressure
extending from SE Canada into the Mid-Atlantic. Satellite imagery
showed cirrus building into the area from the W. Cirrus gradually
increase in coverage from W to E this morning. Temps as of 650
AM ranged from the mid-upper 30s N/NE to the mid 40s SW. The
high to the N gradually moves E across New England today
creating a bit of a CAD setup across the Piedmont. As such,
expect mostly cloudy skies across the Piedmont today with partly
cloudy skies along and E of I-95. Cannot rule out some light
drizzle or a brief sprinkle across the Piedmont this afternoon,
but confidence is too low for mentionable PoPs at this time.
Given the cloud cover across the Piedmont, temps will likely
remain cooler. However, some models have a warm front lifting N
by late afternoon into the S portions of the FA with temps
potentially warming. Therefore, confidence in temps is lowest
across the Piedmont and they may need to be lowered (around 60F
as opposed to mid 60s) if the CAD holds on. The onshore flow
will also keep temps cooler along the coast and the Eastern
Shore with highs in the mid 50s (around 50F at Ocean City, MD).
In between these areas, temps likely rise into the lower 60s
across N central VA and mid-upper 60s across S central VA.

Low pressure moves into the Great Lakes tonight, lifting a warm
front N across the FA. As such, expect lows tonight in the upper 40s
NE to lower 60s SW early this evening with warming temps overnight.
Winds become S and breezy late tonight behind the warm front as well
with temps warming to the mid-upper 60s by sunrise Thu.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 355 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Message:

- Well above normal temperatures are expected Thursday and Friday.

- Shower/storm chances increase by Friday.

Low pressure moves from the Great Lakes into SE Canada Thu with a
cold front approaching the Appalachians. Meanwhile, a large ridge
builds across the E CONUS, allowing for well above normal
temperatures. In fact, Summer-like temperatures are expected Thu and
Fri with highs in the low-mid 80s (most in the mid 80s) Thu and mid-
upper 80s for most Fri (mid-upper 70s across the far N including the
Eastern Shore). Dew points rise into the mid-upper 60s Thu with
ample CAPE and shear developing across the area. However, a
shortwave passes well to the N of the local area across the Ohio
Valley and N VA with no real forcing for showers/storms across the
local area. As such, most models keep the local area dry Thu.
However, a few models indicate the potential for the forcing to be a
touch farther S with storms potentially moving across far N portions
of the FA Thu afternoon into Thu evening. As such, only have 15-30%
PoPs across this area. However, given the environment, if storms do
develop, they would have the potential to become strong to severe
with damaging winds the primary threat. As such, SPC has this area
under a marginal risk (level 1/5) for severe storms Thu with a
slight risk (level 2/5) bordering the N portions of the FA and
including all of N VA. Otherwise, Thu will be breezy with SSW winds
gusting to 25-30 mph.

A few showers will continue to be possible Thu night as a backdoor
cold front slowly drops S across the N portions of the FA. The
backdoor front continues to slowly drift SW through the day Fri
before stalling. A weak shortwave may round the ridge Fri providing
enough lift for scattered showers/storms along the front. However,
confidence is only low-medium. For now, have 40-50% PoPs mainly Fri
afternoon into Fri evening with any showers/storms tapering off
Fri night. Cannot rule out a few strong storms given dew points
in the mid (possibly upper) 60s. Otherwise, a sharp temperature
gradient is possible across N portions of the FA behind the
front Fri with highs in the 70s NE (possibly cooler) whereas
temps S of the front likely rise into the mid-upper 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 415 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Well above normal temperatures are expected Saturday and Sunday.

- Widespread showers and storms are possible Sunday.

- Cooler conditions arrive early next week with widespread frost possible
  Tuesday night.

A large ridge remains in place across the E CONUS this weekend with
a large, stationary front located W of the Appalachians. As such,
expect well above normal temps to continue with highs in the
mid- upper 80s S and 70s NE Sat and mid-upper 80s Sun (most in
the upper 80s). A warm front lifts N across the area Sat.
However, it may not lift N in time for the Eastern Shore to see
much warming with highs in the upper 60s along the coast and
low-mid 70s elsewhere. Otherwise, mostly dry weather is expected
Sat apart from a few light showers across N portions of the FA
early in the day. Mostly cloudy skies linger across the Eastern
Shore with partly cloudy skies elsewhere by the afternoon.
Breezy SW winds develop Sun with winds increasing to 15-20 mph
with gusts up to 30 mph. This will help temps to rise even more
with widespread upper 80s possible. The cold front finally
begins to approach from the W Sun night with widespread showers
and storms possible ahead of the front Sun afternoon into Sun
night. Showers may linger across SE portions of the FA into Mon
evening. Behind the front, dry weather returns with temps
cooling drastically. Highs are only expected to range from the
mid-upper 60s for most Mon and in the mid-upper 50s N to around
60F S Tue. Lows will also cool with lows Mon night in the upper
30s NW to upper 40s SE. The coldest night looks to be Tue night
where widespread lows in the low-mid 30s are possible along with
widespread frost. The NBM even has some portions of the FA
dropping below freezing.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 650 AM EDT Wednesday...

Cirrus linger across the area today with mostly cloudy skies
across the Piedmont and I-95 corridor and partly sunny skies
east. CIGs gradually lower by late this morning into this
afternoon from SW to NE as stratus move in (CIGs generally
4000-8000 ft). CIGs continue to lower this evening into tonight
with MVFR CIGs pushing in from SW to NE. IFR CIGs are expected
across the Piedmont to RIC after 6z Thu and may reach PHF.
However, confidence is low in IFR CIGs reaching ORF/SBY. Otherwise,
remaining dry apart from some occasional light drizzle or
sprinkles across the Piedmont mainly this evening into tonight.
Light E winds early this morning become ESE 10-15 kt with gusts
up to 20-25 kt by this afternoon, becoming SE this evening.

Outlook: CIGs improve to VFR/MVFR by Thursday afternoon.
Isolated to scattered showers and storms are possible later in
the week as a cold front tries to nudge into the region. This
cold front then slides through the area as a backdoor front
Friday night, and lifts back north Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 340 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- SCA conditions develop over the Chesapeake Bay and rivers of eastern
  Virginia due to an increasing E to SE wind this afternoon and
  evening.

- SCA conditions develop over the coastal Atlantic N of
  Parramore Island later tonight into Thursday due to an
  increasing southerly wind and building seas.

- Another period of SCA conditions are possible later this
  weekend and early next week ahead of, and behind a strong
  cold front.

1033mb high pressure is centered over southwest QB early this
morning, and extends southward toward the northern Mid-Atlantic
coast. The wind is generally E to ENE 5-10kt, and locally 10-15kt.
Seas range from 3-4ft S, to ~3ft N, with 1-2ft waves in the Ches.
Bay. High pressure shifts SE toward New England today and builds to
~1035mb, before settling off the New England coast by tonight. The
wind remains E this morning, and then becomes E to ESE this aftn,
and then SE by this evening, before becoming S tonight. The pressure
gradient tightens by this aftn and evening, and this combined with
some channeling effects with an ESE to SE wind direction should
result in wind speeds increasing to 15-20kt with gusts up to 25kt
for the Ches. Bay and rivers. Local wind probabilities for sustained
wind of 18kt ramp up to 60-90% from 17-20z today, show a bit of a
lull around 00z, and then back to 60-80% through 05z. SCAs have been
issued for the lower Ches. Bay from 17z/1PM today through 05z/1AM
Thu, the middle Ches. Bay from 17z/1PM through 08z/4AM, and the
rivers from 17z/1PM to 02z/10PM. Waves build to 2-3ft, and around
3ft at the mouth of the Ches. Bay. By later tonight into Thursday, a
S wind will increase to 15-20kt with gusts to 25kt over the ocean N
of Parramore Is., which will result in seas building to 4-6ft
(highest offshore). Therefore, SCAs have been issued N of Parramore
Is. from 05z/1AM Thu to 22z/6PM Thu. S of Parramore Is., expect an E
to ESE wind of 10-15kt with gusts to 20kt that will become SE this
evening, and S by tonight, along with 3-4ft seas. Additional low-end
SCAs are possible Thursday, mainly across the rivers, Currituck
Sound, and western/southern shore of the Ches. Bay due to a gusty SW
wind from mixing over adjacent land areas.

High pressure settles off the Southeast coast Thursday into Friday.
The wind is expected to be SW 10-15kt with gusts to 20kt Thursday
night, and 15-20kt with gusts to 25kt N of Parramore Is., where SCAs
will likely need to be extended as seas remain 4-6ft. A backdoor
cold front slowly slides S along the coast Friday, before settling
in vicinity of the VA/NC border Friday night. A S to SW wind will
diminish ahead of the front, and shift to E to ENE 8-12kt behind the
front. Seas will primarily be 2-3ft S to 3-4ft N Friday, and 2-3ft
by Friday night, with 1-2ft waves in the Ches. Bay. The backdoor
front lifts back N as a warm front Saturday, with a SW wind
increasing to 15-20kt with gusts to 25kt later Saturday night into
Sunday as the pressure gradient tightens between high pressure off
the Southeast coast and a cold front approaching from the W. Seas
build to 4-5ft S to 5-7ft N. The initial cold front crosses the
region Monday, with a secondary cold front following Monday night
into Tuesday. CAA with this front has the potential to bring
additional SCA conditions in a N to NW wind.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EDT
     Thursday for ANZ630-631.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EDT
     Thursday for ANZ632-634.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 PM EDT
     this evening for ANZ635>638.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 6 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RMM
NEAR TERM...RMM
SHORT TERM...RMM
LONG TERM...RMM
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...AJZ