Norfolk, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

491
FXUS61 KAKQ 131343
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
943 AM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure offshore gradually drifts south through the week,
allowing for seasonably warm and humid conditions to continue.
Daily chances for isolated to scattered showers and storms
continue through the week with lower chances Friday through the
upcoming weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 940 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Isolated to scattered showers/storms are possible across much
  of the area today as warm and humid weather continues.

- There is a threat for localized flooding, but the majority of the
  area likely sees little to no rain.

Latest sfc analysis shows a weakening upper ridge over the
eastern CONUS, with a shortwave aloft tracking E/ENE across the
area. High pressure remains offshore with a weak cold front
draped from the Great Lakes to MS River Valley. Widespread low
stratus remains over the area with a few light showers across
far W and SE portions of the FA. Deeper convection to the S
across NC associated with the shortwave could hinder afternoon
destabilization across the local area and therefore could hinder
the development of deeper afternoon convection...particularly
across S VA/NE NC. Warm/humid weather continues today with
highs in the mid to upper 80s. Despite the height falls and
shortwave tracking through the area...the 00z CAMs don`t show
much in the way of convection at all across the area during the
afternoon, with a slight increase in coverage during the
evening near the coast. There will likely be higher coverage of
convection to our north closer to that front (which remains to
our north through tonight). Will still keep 30-50% PoPs during
the afternoon/evening as isolated- scattered tstms are possible
just about anywhere. While storm motion will be faster today
(thanks to the increased flow aloft from that shortwave), PWATs
on the order of 2.0-2.2" will allow for storms to drop 1-2" of
rain in a short amount of time. As a result, there is a threat
for localized flooding. However, the majority of the FA will
likely see little to no rain. WPC has maintained the Marginal
Risk for the entire area. There is also a very low but nonzero
chance for a damaging wind gust or two this afternoon/evening.
However, this threat is minimal, especially given the lingering
stability over the area due to convection to the south.
Otherwise, diurnal weakening is expected tonight but with
scattered showers/storms possible near the coast through 12-2
AM. Warm/humid weather continues tonight with lows in the lower
70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 245 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Temperatures and humidity increase slightly Thursday, but max
  heat indices remain at or below 100F across most of the area.

- Locally heavy rainfall is possible on Thursday along and south
  of I-64 as scattered afternoon/evening storms are expected
  once again.

- Storm chances decrease on Friday/Saturday as the low-level
  flow becomes onshore.

The (very) weak front (mainly a wind shift) approaches from the
north on Thursday...and settles over the area Thursday
afternoon/evening. This will allow for another round of scattered
aftn/evening tstms with the focus along and south of I-64. We`ll
have the typical summertime threats for highly localized
flooding/damaging wind gusts. Slightly warmer on Thu with highs into
the upper 80s to lower 90s. Max heat indices should still remain aob
100F in most areas...but could reach 100-103F in a few spots east of
I-95. Still, no heat headlines are anticipated. The low-level flow
becomes NE on Friday behind the weak boundary. While it`ll still be
warm/humid with highs in the mid-upper 80s...shower/tstm coverage
will be noticeably less than what is expected on Thursday. Lows
Friday night fall into the upper 60s to around 70 degrees as
somewhat drier air filters into the area. Warm and a bit less humid
of Saturday with mid-upper 80s once again expected. Mainly dry wx is
expected outside of isolated aftn/evening tstms along and west of I-
95.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 245 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Seasonably warm weather continues through the weekend and into
  early next week.

- Little to no convection is expected Sun-Mon. Isolated
  afternoon/evening storms are possible on Tue.

Upper ridging builds back over the eastern CONUS on Sunday, with the
flow becoming NW early next week as the ridge retreats to the W/SW
and a cold front approaches from the north. Mostly dry wx (and a
slight warming trend) is expected on Sunday/Monday as the flow
shifts from the E to the S. Turning to the tropics, Model/ensemble
consensus shows TC Erin tracking to a position well off the FL/GA
coast by the end of the period (Tue night). Local impacts from Erin
(direct or indirect) would likely be just after Day 7. Of course,
the future track is highly uncertain this far out but model/ensemble
consensus continues to favor a recurving storm well offshore with
potential wave and rip current impacts to the local area.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 630 AM EDT Wednesday...

IFR to LIFR stratus continues to prevail this morning (w/ patchy
fog at SBY). Expect this to prevail through ~14z before CIGs
gradually lift to VFR (w/ SCT-BKN cumulus) by midday. Isolated
to scattered showers and storms develop again this afternoon and
evening across much of the area, and have introduced PROB30
groups at all of the terminals late this aftn/this evening. Any
tstm will be capable of producing brief IFR/LIFR VSBYs and
gusty winds to 25-30 kt. Another round of low stratus is
possible late tonight, especially closer to the coast.

Outlook: Daily chances for isolated to scattered showers and
storms continue through the week. MVFR CIGs will continue to be
possible through the week with potentially IFR CIGs and/or VIS
(due to fog) possible near sunrise.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 245 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Generally benign marine conditions are expected through the week.

- Winds and seas become elevated by the middle of next week with
  SCA conditions possible.

High pressure centered in the western North Atlantic continues to
promote gentle SW winds across the local waters. Waves of 1-2 ft in
the Bay and seas of 2-3 ft in the Ocean are being observed this
morning. The aforementioned high will gradually build southeastwards
over the next day or so, allowing for continued benign marine
conditions and generally SW winds of between 5-10 kts through late
week. Winds will briefly surge closer to 10-15 kts late this
afternoon into the late evening, but will decrease overnight into
Thursday. By Friday, winds will become onshore once again as a weak
cold front moves through the area, but are still expected to remain
at or below 10-15 kts. This wind regime will continue through the
weekend and into early next week. Another front is progged to near
the area on Monday, with high pressure building in behind it by
Tuesday. Waves and seas remain generally 1-2 ft and 2-3 ft
respectively through the week. There is lower confidence heading
into the extended forecast in regards to exact winds and seas due
the uncertainty regarding the track of Tropical Storm Erin. We will
continue to monitor this as over the next few forecast cycles, but
the local waters will likely see increasing easterly swell by
Tuesday.

With generally benign winds and seas forecast through the remainder
of the week, the rip risk will be low at all area beaches through
Friday, likely continuing through the weekend. With increasing swell
and long wave periods expected by early to mid next week, the rip
current risk will likely increase sharply starting Tuesday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERI
NEAR TERM...ERI/RMM
SHORT TERM...ERI/RHR
LONG TERM...ERI/RHR
AVIATION...ERI
MARINE...NB