Newport News, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

113
FXUS61 KAKQ 132341
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
741 PM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will remain nearly stationary across northern
portions of the area through Saturday, before slowly dropping
south Saturday night and Sunday. This pattern will keep unsettled
conditions in place through the weekend. An upper level ridge
expands northward next week, bringing hot weather with lower
rain chances.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 330 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Flood watch has been expanded through Saturday night.

- An additional Flood Watch has been issued south of the initial
  watch, to cover expected heavy rain Saturday
  afternoon/Saturday night.

The latest WX analysis shows primarily zonal flow aloft across
the area with an upper level trough across MO/AR, moving twds
the lower-mid MS Valley. At the surface, ~1024mb high pressure
remains centered near Bermuda, with ~1015mb sfc low pressure
from eastern KY to northern VA. A frontal boundary is in place
just N of the CWA, and has actually dipped south into portions
of the ND eastern shore. The flow aloft slowly becomes a bit
more from the WSW tonight and Sat, which would tend to lift the
boundary back to the north (slightly). The most widespread
convection so far has been in NE NC, with scattered activity
along the front to the north. In between, there has been little
to no activity thus far, but can see some developing isolated
showers into central VA now. The overall trend is for less in
the way of extensive heavy rainfall tonight, but with a more
pronounced signal across the I-64 corridor on Saturday,
persisting Saturday night as the front drops south. Have
extended the Flood Watch through Sat night, and expanded the
Watch to the south (this southern portion not starting until Sat
aftn). In addition to the Flash flooding threat, there is still
the potential for an isolated strong to severe tstm this
evening, mainly across northern portions of the CWA where effective
bulk shear values are 25-35 kt. There is also a non- zero
chance of a brief tornado threat. This is the some enhanced low
level shear along the front. Lows tonight mainly in the lower
70s, with some upper 60s possible N. On Sat, much of the
morning/early aftn will probably be dry, but this should lead
to higher levels of instability, and 60-80% PoPs by late aftn,
lingering through the evening and overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 345 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Continued unsettled Sunday, especially S of I-64.

- Additional rounds of heavy rain could lead to additional Flash
  flooding.

The front is expected to linger in the southern portion of the
area Sunday, keeping above normal PoPs throughout the area.
Current deterministic models show a moist airmass recovering
across the area as PW values are ~2.00". Additional QPF values
are 2-3" for much of the region through Sunday evening, though
with the scattered tstms, locally higher amounts are likely. An
additional Flood Watch may be needed Sunday for southern zones.
Highs Sunday will be much cooler N of the front, only low 70s
eastern shore, with mid-upper 80s far south. A Marginal SVR
risk is in place along and S of I-64, (mainly for wind) due to
slightly stronger flow aloft, though a lot of uncertainty exists
with respect to specifics on the location of the front. Still
unsettled Monday, with high chc to likely Pops.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 345 PM EDT Friday...

Key Message:

- SHower/storm chances drop off to near climo, with temperatures
  trending back above normal by mid to late week.


The latest 12z/13 ensemble guidance from both the GFS and ECWMF
are in decent agreement, depicting an upper level ridge along
the SE US coast expanding back north into the local area, with
some upper troughing lingering well off to our W and NW. This
setup will lead to warming temperatures, with a rather hot
stretch (and high humidity) likely Wed-Thu with highs peaking
into the low- mid 90s Thursday. Thursday could see heat indices
above 100F, possibly close to headlines in the SE (though this
is several days out so confidence is not real high). PoPs drop
off to only 20-40% chc Tue-Thu (highest inland). Friday will
have somewhat higher PoPs as the next cold front moves in from
the NW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 741 PM EDT Friday...

Showers and thunderstorms have been intermittent at most terminals
over the past few hours. Most sites are experiencing a reprieve from
heavy rainfall right now, but -SHRA will likely impact ECG, ORF, and
PHF over the next few hours. There is a chance that RIC could be
impacted by the storms to the northwest in a few hours, so have
maintained -SHRA for the time being. There remains some uncertainty
in the exact evolution of the storms tonight, so amendments may be
necessary through the night, pending how convection trends. CIGS
regardless of convection coverage are expected to drop to MVFR to
potentially IFR tonight at all terminals through tomorrow morning.
At SBY, MVFR CIGS will likely linger through tomorrow evening with
little reprieve. Winds outside of storms will be from the south to
southwest at 5 to 10 knots. Occasional gusts at ORF, PHF, and RIC
are possible over the next few hours, but are expected to diminish
tonight.

Convection is expected to wane early tomorrow morning before picking
back up again tomorrow afternoon. Once again, there is uncertainty
in the evolution of tomorrows storms, so have decided to include a
PROB30 for -TSRA at all terminals to account for the the possibility
of numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms expected tomorrow.
The challenge will be exactly where storms develop and when, so
details of become a little more clear and confidence increases, we
will likely include TEMPOs to capture the convection.

Outlook: Scattered to numerous, mainly aftn/evening showers/tstms
return again Sun, bringing localized flight restrictions in
heavy rain and gusty winds. Rain chances remain elevated above
climo Monday, before dropping off by Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 330 PM EDT Friday...

Key Message:

- Relatively benign across the marine area into next week
  outside of convection.

A cold front will be nearly stationary across the Delmarva
tonight and Saturday, before slowly dropping south Sat night and
Sunday. Seas are between 2 to 3 ft, with 1-2 ft waves in the
Bay. Southerly winds will average 10-15 kt this evening, the
exception being over the northern coastal waters near the front
where wind directions may become onshore awhile, before shifting
back to the S. Any showers and thunderstorms will be handled
with SMWs. As the front drops south Sat night, E-NE winds
develop, gradually shifting south with time by later Sunday.
Seas are expected to build to ~3 ft (possibly 3-4 ft over the
waters N of Parramore Island). The front washes out next week,
with a more S/SW flow again by Tuesday, with sub-SCA conditions
continuing.

Rip currents are expected to remain low for Saturday,
then moderate N and low S for Sunday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...Flood Watch through late Saturday night for VAZ048-060>062-064-
     068-069-075>078-082>086-090-099-100-509>525.
     Flood Watch from Saturday afternoon through late Saturday
     night for VAZ067-080-081-088-089-092-093-095>098.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...HET/LKB
AVIATION...LKB/NB
MARINE...HET/LKB