Newport News, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

466
FXUS61 KAKQ 230121
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
821 PM EST Mon Dec 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure slides offshore tonight ahead of a weak low
pressure system, which tracks across the region Tuesday morning
brining a chance of showers. High pressure and above average
temperatures arrive Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday. A
backdoor cold front slides across the area later Christmas Day,
and this will potentially bring cooler temperatures by Friday,
especially from central Virginia to the Eastern Shore.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 820 PM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

- Light showers are possible late tonight into Tuesday morning.

1034mb high pressure is centered along the Mid-Atlantic coast
this evening. Temps have already dropped into the upper 30s for
much of the area and as low as the upper 20s on the Eastern
Shore. Temps likely stabilize or even rise a few degrees
tonight as cloud cover thickens. Later tonight, a weak low
pressure and a warm front will approach from the NW. Strong WAA
aloft will result in rising temperatures aloft. Therefore,
forecast soundings are not supportive of any wintry precip
across the northern tier of the area. The primary timeframe for
any showers associated with the system is between sunrise and
early afternoon, and mainly along and E of the I- 95 corridor.
QPF is minimal and less than a tenth of an inch. Improving
conditions are expected from WSW- ENE Tuesday afternoon. A
Pacific airmass arrives behind the warm front with high
temperatures potentially nearing 60F across the Piedmont if
clouds clear early enough. Farther NE, forecast highs are around
50F where cloud cover will be slower to clear.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 320 PM EST Monday...

Key Message:

- Moderating temperatures are expected through midweek.

A weak cold front drops across the area Tuesday night with high
pressure returning Wednesday into Wednesday night. Not as cool
Tuesday night with lows ranging from the mid/upper 30s N to the
mid 40s S under a mostly clear sky. Increasing high clouds
Wednesday. Forecast highs range from around 50F over the Eastern
Shore and lower 50s along the coasts of SE VA/NE NC where light
N to NE flow will result in cooler temperatures. Milder away
from the coast, with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s well
inland W and SW of the Ches. Bay. Pleasant Christmas Eve with
temperatures falling into the 40s. Another weak low pressure
system and warm front track across the area Christmas morning
resulting in clouds and a chc of showers. There is some
uncertainty in high temperatures Christmas Day. The latest NBM
has highs ranging from the lower 50s NE to lower 60s SW.
However, the 12z/22 EPS/GEFS ens. means are generally mid 40s NE
to mid 50s SW. High temperatures Christmas Day will be highly
influenced by the amount of cloud cover.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 320 PM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

- Trending cooler later this week.

- A few light rain showers are possible on Thursday and Friday
  across northern portions of the area.

- Potentially much colder early next week.

An anomalous ridge is still expected to develop/strengthen over
the central CONUS throughout this week. However, another strong
ridge is forecast to be centered in vicinity of Greenland.
Therefore, global deterministic and ensemble guidance have
trended colder with negative height anomalies across New England
and Atlantic Canada. The brunt of the colder air will be
directed more N and NE of the local area. However, 1030+mb high
pressure building across QB will push a backdoor cold front
through the local area Thursday night. The latest NBM has
trended down showing highs ranging from the upper 40s N to upper
50s/lower 60s S. In contrast, the 22/12z model/ensemble
consensus shows highs in the upper 30s/lower 40s N to mid
40s/around 50F S along with clouds and a chc of rain (especially
N). The surface high and backdoor front will be slow to retreat
to the NE Saturday, so clouds and cooler temperatures
potentially linger through Saturday. The longwave pattern
undergoes a rather quick transition Sunday with an upper ridge
amplifying over the East Coast. Meanwhile, a trough develops in
vicinity of the Great Lakes. This trough then digs SE and
deepens as it remains in vicinity of the East Coast early next
week. A strong cold front will precede the upper trough and
cross the region Sunday night. Mild ahead of the cold front
Sunday with a chc of showers during the afternoon and evening.
Much colder early next week behind the cold front.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 625 PM EST Monday...

VFR prevails this evening under high pressure located along the
local coastline. High pressure slides offshore tonight with VFR
conditions continuing under increasing CI. Weak low pressure
and a warm front push across the area Tuesday morning. This will
bring a thicker layer of clouds and occasional showers.
However, VFR conditions are still expected to prevail. There is
a potential for southwesterly LLWS Tuesday morning. The wind
shifts to SW by Tuesday aftn with the potential for gusts to
~20kt.

A weak and dry cold front slides across the area Tuesday night
with high pressure returning Wednesday with VFR conditions
expected. A frontal boundary settles into the region Christmas
Day through Saturday. This will bring clouds and a chc of
showers, along with the potential for sub-VFR cigs, primarily
across the northern tier of the area and toward the coast.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 320 PM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

- Benign Marine conditions continue through tomorrow morning.

- Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the bay for wind
  gusts up to 20 kt Tuesday.

- Sub-SCA conditions are expected through the middle of the
  week.

Afternoon weather analysis shows a 1034mb high pressure
centered overhead. This has allowed winds to remain light
between 5 to 10 kt out of the north. In addition, seas have
lowered and are now around 1 ft across the bay and between 3 to
4 ft across the ocean. The SCA for the Sound and southern 2
ocean zones have been able to expire due to marine conditions
improving. Through the afternoon and into tonight high pressure
slides further offshore. While to the north a low pressure moves
across the Great Lakes vicinity pushing a warm front through
the area allowing winds to come out of the SW. Winds will remain
relatively light through the evening with winds around 10 kt.
Seas will be 1 ft across the bay and 2 to 3 ft across the ocean.
By sunrise Tuesday, winds will increase as the pressure
gradient from the low to the north and the high to the south
tightens. Winds are expected to remain out of the SW between 10
to 15 kt with gusts upwards of 20kt. There could be a brief
period of 25 kt gusts across the northern ocean zones. However,
confidence is low at the time. However, there is high enough
confidence of 20 kt gusts across the bay given decent mixing,
strong enough pressure gradient, and local wind probs of wind
greater than 18 kt are greater than 90%. With high enough
confidence in the forecast SCA have been issued for the entire
bay from Tuesday morning and lasting through Tuesday afternoon.
SCA maybe extended across portions of the rivers, however, at
this time confidence is not high to warrant a SCA. Seas are
expected to be between 1 to 3 ft across the bay and 3 to 4 ft
across the ocean Tuesday. Winds diminish by Tuesday afternoon
dropping below SCA criteria as a trailing cold front pushes
through the area. Behind the front there could be a push of
cooler and drier air that could bring a very marginal SCA
conditions across the north. However, latest model guidance
continues to show a weaker push of drier and cooler air. High
pressure returns by Christmas Eve with weak low pressure
tracking N of the area Christmas Day. Sub-SCA conditions are
expected Wednesday aftn through Christmas Day.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 4 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ630.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ631-
     632-634.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJZ
NEAR TERM...AJZ/AC
SHORT TERM...AJZ
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...AJZ/AC
MARINE...HET/LKB