Newport News, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

381
FXUS61 KAKQ 011915
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
315 PM EDT Sun Jun 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front moves across the area this evening, allowing for
isolated to scattered showers to develop. High pressure builds
into the area this week, allowing for dry weather to return
through mid-week. A warmup is expected by the middle of next
week. An unsettled pattern returns by late week into next
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
As of 230 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Message:

- Scattered showers and isolated storms develop this evening into
tonight across SE VA and NE NC.

- Cool tonight with lows in the upper 40s/50s.

An expansive upper-level trough remains across the eastern CONUS
today. With W-NW flow aloft from this trough, upstream smoke from
Canadian wildfires continues to filter into the area. This is
creating a hazy/filtered appearance to the sky, but surface
impacts are not expected at this time. At the surface, a broad
area of high pressure over the OH Valley and Great Lakes extends
eastward into the Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic regions.
Otherwise, rather quiet afternoon wx prevails across our CWA
with temperatures ranging through the 70s.

Another shortwave is expected to approach the area later this
afternoon and evening. Expecting dry wx initially but there is
likely to be some increased mid-level cloud cover as lapse rates
aloft steepen and dew points creep up. However, as the shortwave
nears the coast this evening into early tonight, a weak low and sfc
front looks to develop over SE VA. This is expected to trigger
scattered showers from south-central VA eastward into SE VA and the
VA Eastern Shore, mainly from 10 PM through 3 AM or so. Instability
generally looks quite weak but cannot rule out a rumble or two of
thunder given forecast soundings show some MUCAPE above 850 mb.
Wouldn`t be totally shocked to see some small hail as well given
effective shear magnitudes increase after 00z/8 PM and the cold
temps aloft already in place. SPC still has a Level 1 out 5
(Marginal) severe wx risk for really just Bertie County, but this is
actually with earlier day activity that looks to stay S of the area.
With guidance generally more bullish with shower coverage early
tonight, QPF has bumped up some, with up to 0.25-0.5" possible in
the aforementioned areas that see showers. Skies clear out closer to
the sunrise as the disturbance and sfc low move offshore and
lows drop into the upper 40s-lower 50s W of I-95 and lower-mid
50s E (with a few lower 60s at the immediate coast). Similar to
last night, should there be any decoupling, these temps could
end up being a few degrees too warm. Either way, a chilly early
June night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Seasonably cool, sunny, and dry Monday.

- Much warmer temperatures arrive by midweek.

The trough axis shifts eastward Monday, allowing the sfc high to
settle overhead. While one additional shortwave may dive southward
in the late morning/early afternoon, generally near the coast,
insufficient moisture throughout the column should prevent anything
other than some widely scattered cumulus clouds. Monday`s highs
remain below normal for one more day with temps topping out in the
mid 70s for most of the area. Radiational cooling leads to one more
cool night with lows in the 50s, though there is again some
potential for 40s inland per the statistical guidance.

The trough evolves into a cut-off low Tuesday as it moves well
offshore, while ridging expands along the East Coast. With
building heights and low-level thicknesses, a significant
warming trend begins Tuesday and continues through most of the
upcoming work week. Highs Tuesday in the lower-mid 80s, with
mid-upper 80s by Wednesday. Moderating lows Tuesday night in the
upper 50s-lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 245 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Generally dry and warm/hot weather is expected for the end of
  the week.

- Afternoon shower and storm chances return by later Friday into
  the weekend, though with temperatures remaining in the 80s.

A ridge should linger across the area through most of the week,
favoring mainly dry wx and warm to hot temperatures. Forecast
highs Thursday and Friday are in the mid-upper 80s (and perhaps
to 90 in a few spots). This is ~1-2 degrees cooler than the
previous forecast. This can probably be traced to the global
model guidance recently trending toward showing a weak upper
low developing underneath the ridge over the Southeast states
Thursday. There could also be a weak sfc low or trough that sets
up along the Carolina coast. This scenario would allow for some
cloud cover to stream northward toward us, especially across
the srn half of the forecast area. Slight chance PoPs have also
been introduced later Thursday into Thursday night. By Friday,
that disturbance may lift N along the coast as broader shortwave
trough approaches from the W. Thus, would expect at least
isolated-scattered showers/storms Friday afternoon. Ensemble and
deterministic guidance then shows a cold front crossing the
area Saturday, with additional showers and storms possible
(40-50% chance). The 01/12z GFS stalls the front near the NC/VA
border Sunday, leading to additional wet wx. On the other hand,
the 12z ECMWF clears to front well to our S, with dry wx by next
Sunday. All in all, these are typical uncertainties at this time
range so will continue to advertise a chance of showers and
storms into Sunday (which is consistent with the NBM/blended
guidance). Warm temperatures in the 80s prevail through the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Sunday...

Mainly clear skies prevail across the region this afternoon,
other than high-altitude smoke which is leading to filtered
sunshine. Expect mid-level cloud cover to increase later this
afternoon into this evening and tonight as an upper-level
disturbance approaches the area. There is also a chance for
showers this evening into tonight, especially for the SE
terminals. Because of low confidence in coverage, this potential
will be handled with PROB30 groups. Skies clear late tonight
into the first part of Monday, though some smoke aloft likely
persists. Generally SW winds of 5-10 kt this afternoon turn to
the S this evening, before becoming light and variable tonight.

Outlook: Mainly dry conditions expected through Thursday with
VFR conditions prevailing.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 315 PM EDT Sunday...

- Weak low pressure and another cold front cross the coast tonight.

- Benign marine conditions prevail later Monday through much of
  the week with high pressure over the region.

Broad high pressure W of the region is leading to rather light
winds of 5-10 kt this afternoon. The wind direction is generally
S-SSE, except from the SW on the rivers. Seas are around 2 ft
this afternoon with waves in the bay around 1 ft.

Weak low pressure approaches from the WSW by this evening. The
wind is expected to become SSE 10-15kt over the Chesapeake Bay
and ocean over the next few hours and into this evening ahead
of this feature. This area of low pressure moves off the coast
later tonight, with another cold front dropping N-S along the
Mid- Atlantic coast. A northerly surge follows this cold front.
The wind is generally expected to be 10-15kt. However, a short
period of 15-20kt is possible over the bay Monday morning given
another push of drier air from the N over relatively warmer
water. This would also result in a period of 2-3ft waves in the
Bay Monday morning. Wind probabilities for SCAs (>18 kt
sustained) are generally 20-40%; thus, confidence is too low to
raise headlines at this time. However, a short-fused SCA could
eventually be needed depending on observational and model trends.
The time frame for this would be roughly 09z-15z/5 AM-11 AM.
Otherwise, high pressure builds into the region later Monday,
before settling offshore through the middle and end of the week.
This will result in a S to SW wind beginning Tuesday, which
will primarily be at or below 15kt. Seas will mainly be 2-3ft,
with 1-2ft waves in the bay.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RMM/SW
NEAR TERM...SW
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...SW
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...AJZ/SW