Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

572
FXUS61 KRNK 221209
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
709 AM EST Sun Dec 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure covered much of the eastern United States this morning
along with below normal temperatures. This high will move east today
and offshore tonight with slowly moderating temperatures. On Monday
low pressure tracks across the Great Lakes which then brings a
chance of rain and snow to the central Appalachians on Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 200 AM EST Sunday...

Key messages:

   - Below normal temperatures today and tonight
   - Snow showers ending

Night Fog satellite image indicated low clouds from Ohio and western
Pennsylvania to the West Virginia/Virginia border. Surface high
pressure was building into the area with wind speeds less than 15
mph at all but a couple of locations. Just above the surface the
wind remained out of the northwest, but upslope lift was weakening
and the wind direction will turn more to the west by 12Z/8AM, ending
the upslope clouds and snow showers.

500MB heights and 850 temperatures slightly rise today as the upper
trough exits the eastern United States. Only minor tweaks made to
the maximum temperatures today and lows tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 500 AM EST Sunday...

Key Messages:

1). Continued cold through midweek with a very slow
warming trend.

2). A series of weather systems/upper short waves will spread
across the region supporting periods of light precipitation.

A remnant Arctic high pressure system will linger throughout
the week over New England while drifting very slowly east. This
will promote a wedge setup at least through the first half of
the week resulting in only a slow moderation of the bitter early
week cold. Hence, any warmup will be inhibited by the
developing wedge pattern. A baroclinic zone will develop
along/near the front across the OH/KY valley and gradually drift
into the VA/WV area by Christmas. As high pressure aloft builds
over the southeastern U.S., this will tend to inhibit further
eastward movement of the front which in turn generally tends to
dissipate before moving into much of the RNK CWA.

Western areas could see 1/10 of an inch of rain from this first
system before it dissipates across western parts of the CWA,
but overall this system appears to dissipate providing only 1/10
or less rainfall to the CWA, mainly western areas.

Temperatures will start out early Monday once again in the teens
to lower 20s across much of the area. Afternoon temperatures
will still only reach the 30s, however. A more notable warmup
will begin Tuesday afternoon. After lows once again in the upper
teens to mid 20s, afternoon high temperatures will finally
rebound into the 50s got most areas.

/Confidence Levels in Forecast Parameters/
- Moderate to High Confidence in Temperatures,
- Low to Moderate Confidence in Precipitation Probabilities,
- Moderate Confidence in Wind Direction and Speed.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS of 530 AM EST Sunday...

Key Messages:

1). Unsettled weather pattern to close out 2024 calendar year.

2). Temperatures slowly moderate to above normal levels as the
week progresses.

A rather active pattern will be in place for the last week of
2024. A series of vigorous short waves will emanate from a deep
trough in the central U.S., which itself will slowly shift
eastward with time. An upper ridge to our southeast will
initially shunt the main dynamics of these shortwaves to our
northwest. Therefore, each one of these short waves becomes a
bit more energetic as they originate closer to the mean trough
by the end of the week and track closer to the RNK CWA. In fact
the final in the series looks to be strongly negatively titled
and could be rather interesting in terms of showers and possibly
a few thunderstorms to close out the year.

Rain events from these short waves are expected Tuesday,
Thursday, and Saturday through Sunday. Temperatures during this
time frame are expected to range from highs in the 50s to the
60s, very mild for late December. Lows will range throughout the
30s and 40s.

/Confidence Levels in Forecast Parameters/
- Moderate Confidence in Temperatures,
- Moderate Confidence in Precipitation Probabilities,
- Moderate Confidence in Wind Direction and Speed.AVIATION

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 700 AM EST Sunday...

Night Fog satellite image indicated just a few patches of MVFR
clouds over West Virginia this morning.

Surface high pressure was building into the area with wind
speeds less than 10 kts. Just above the surface the wind
remained out of the northwest, but upslope lift was weakening
and the wind direction will turn more to the southwest by
12Z/8AM Monday.

Otherwise just occasional high clouds, particularly after
18Z/1PM.

Above average confidence for ceiling, visibility, and wind.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Widespread VFR conditions are expected Monday.

Tuesday a low pressure system in the Ohio Valley will bring a
chance of rain and snow to the central and northern Appalachians
along with MVFR conditions.

Confidence is low on Wednesday and Thursday for any flight
restrictions.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...AMS/AS