Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

078
FXUS61 KRNK 150716
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
316 AM EDT Fri Aug 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure passing across New England will extend
southward through the Mid-Atlantic into the weekend, supporting
generally light windflow from the northeast. Thereafter, a cold
front approaching from the upper Midwest will stall between the
Great Lakes and the Ohio River through the early half of next
week, providing the focus for rounds of widely scattered showers
and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 230 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1. Patchy and locally dense fog is in place this morning
areawide, and will burn off gradually after 8 am.

2. Widely scattered showers and a few storms will develop during
late afternoon, and may linger into early Saturday morning.

With the passage of a cold front on Thursday evening, weak high
pressure continues to push southward from New England across
the Mid-Atlantic this morning, wedging itself against the
eastern face of the Appalachians. This has resulted in a
northeasterly wind shift, mainly across the Piedmont, but this
flow doesn`t appear to be strong enough to draw significantly
drier air into the region or to drastically impact temperatures.

Expect to start the day with patchy fog, which may be locally
dense in spots, given light winds and mostly clear skies. Fog
will burn off gradually after 8 am as temperatures warm.

Believe coverage of shower and thunderstorm activity today will
be confined mainly to the mountains, which may spill over to
the foothills before diminishing in the downslope flow. Latest
data suggests that this activity won`t begin to develop until
closer to late afternoon, but it may linger through midnight as
weak disturbances pass across the mountains. Given widely
scattered coverage and the progressive nature of this activity,
believe the threat for any heavy rain & flash flooding is
isolated, and therefore have downgraded the Slight Risk of
Excessive Rainfall across the Highlands of North Carolina that
was previously in place for today to a Marginal Risk.

Temperatures will be near normal for mid-August for today and
tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1. Showers and thunderstorms possible Saturday afternoon, but a
reprieve comes Sunday, though still humid.

2. Chances of showers and thunderstorms return by the beginning
of the work week.

A cold front will be positioned off the Carolina coastline by
the start of the weekend, as high pressure moves across the
northeastern US and down into the central Appalachians. As the
high pressure moves off the coast and the front lingers near the
coast, could see some showers and thunderstorms develop in the
warm and moist airmass over the area, though the highest
probabilities look to be mainly over the mountains, where the
terrain will provide some additional lift.

Sunday will see stronger high pressure over the area, which
will keep precipitation chances to a minimum, and will likely be
the driest day of the period. However, still plenty of moisture
in the atmosphere, and so warm and humid conditions will
remain. More sunshine will allow temperatures to creep up a few
degrees, and highs will reach the low 90s east of the Blue
Ridge, and mid to upper 80s in the west. Lows will be warm, not
dropping below 60 degrees for the area through the period.

By the start of the work week, a cold front will approach the
area from the northwest, prompting a return to daily chances of
afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms, with the greater
potential along the mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 230 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1. Daily chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms
through the period.

2. Continuing warm and humid conditions through the middle of
the week.

A west to east oriented front will linger across the northern
VA area through the middle of the work week. Ample atmospheric
moisture will keep the potential for higher rain rates within
stronger storms, and could result in localized flooding. A 500mb
ridge will strengthen over the west-central US, and start to
expand eastward, while a trough begins to deepen across the far
northeastern US and northwest Atlantic. Current Tropical Storm
Erin is forecast to take a northward turn well off the coast
thanks to the developing upper level trough towards the end of
this forecast period. This turn will likely pull the stalled
front south through the area towards the end of the week, and
precipitation chances will start to decrease as the front moves
away. At this time, no impacts to the local forecast area are
anticipated from Erin, which is currently progged to reach major
hurricane status by Saturday as it passes north of Puerto Rico.
That being said, offshore hurricanes can lead to dangerous rip
currents along the beaches, and so folks are encouraged to heed
all beach hazards and headlines if traveling to the coast next
week.

Temperatures through the mid week period will be right around
seasonal normals, though trending to a few degrees below normal
late in the period as troughing aloft becomes more pronounced.
Overnight lows look to stay about 5 to 10 degrees above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 200 AM EDT Friday...

Patchy fog in place this morning given light winds and clear
skies. Fog will be most widespread across the mountain river
valleys, impacting LWB with 1/4SM visibilities. Other airports
can expect reductions in visibility as well. Fog will burn off
after 15/12Z, making for predominantly VFR conditions through
the remainder of the day.

Winds will be light areawide today, and generally from the
northeast for locations along and east of the Blue Ridge. Widely
scattered showers and a few storms will develop during late
afternoon, mainly across the mountains. These could linger into
early Saturday morning before finally diminishing. Most likely
TAF sites to be impacted by this activity are ROA and BCB.

Localized fog will again develop across the region late tonight,
particularly across the mountain river valleys.


.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Widely scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will redevelop
each afternoon and evening into early next week, more so across
the mountains and foothills, as a cold front stalls somewhere
between the Great Lakes and the Ohio River, providing the focus
for this activity. Patchy fog will redevelop each night,
particularly across the mountain river valleys.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...NF
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...NF