Chesapeake, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

920
FXUS61 KAKQ 120637
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
Issued by National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
237 AM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak frontal boundary remains nearly stationary across
interior portions of southern Virginia and northern North
Carolina this morning, then washes out today. Unsettled
conditions return Friday through at least the early portion of
next week as another front slowly pushes in from the north.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 230 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:


- Patchy fog is possible this morning.

- Mainly dry but hot today.


The latest WX analysis indicates a weak frontal boundary draped
across far southern VA into eastern NC. A subtle upper level
trough is also in place. Showers and thunderstorms have ended
across the area. In addition, moisture has begun to return.
This moisture with very calm winds will allow patchy fog to
form across the southern Piedmont and south eastern portion of
VA and the Eastern Shore. Latest satellite imagery and
observations already show patchy fog developing across these
area. Skies will remain mostly clear N, and becoming mostly
clear S later this morning, with lows in the low 60s NW to near
70F SE.


Once the sun is able to rise this morning the patchy fog will
able to clear. Heights aloft continue to rise through Today, as
an upper level ridge between Bermuda and Florida expands west
through the day. There may be an isolated shower/storm
along/near the Albemarle Sound in the aftn, but the coverage
will be much more limited compared to today as the frontal
boundary weakens/washes out. PoPs have been capped off ~25%
across the area. High temps will be into the low 90s for most
of the area, with upper 80s near the coast. Dew pts will be
mainly in the 60s as day time heating will allow dew points to
mix out. This will allow heat indices to be near or just
slightly above the actual air temperature.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Very warm and more humid with higher thunderstorm chances
  Friday- Saturday.

By Friday, the upper level ridge becomes centered along or just
off the Atlantic coast of FL, as an upper low moves from the
southern Plains towards the lower-mid MS Valley. Westerly flow
aloft tightens up, along with a weak frontal boundary to the N
of the local area. Models continue to trend wetter for Friday,
and PoPs have been raised to likely Fri aftn for most of the
region. At this time, there is still no SVR outlook in place,
but some locally strong to severe storms (mainly wind) will be
possible.These storms once again will be pulse in nature as
latest forecast soundings show weak shear but ample instability
in place. With more cloud cover, highs have been lowered a
degree or two, generally in the upper 80s to lower 90s, though
higher dew pts will yield heat indices into the mid to perhaps
upper 90s. The better day for severe weather looks to be
Saturday in the short term. A stationary boundary will slowly
drop south through the day. South of the boundary ample daytime
heating and a moist airmass will allow for suitable instability
to form. Weak shear aloft will ~25 to 30 of Bulk shear will be
in place as weak subtle flow form a trough will move across the
area. Timing and placement of this boundary is low at the time
and trends in the model data will continue to be monitored.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 230 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Message:

- Daily shower and storm chances continue through the early-
  middle of next week.


The latest ensemble guidance from both the GEFS and EPS are in
decent agreement through the long term. Conditions continue to
look unsettled, especially Sunday/Monday, as an upper level
trough pushes in from the NW, slowly dropping a cold front into
the region. Will have likely PoPs both days, with highs trending
back into the low-mid 80s N, with mid-upper 80s S. A bit more
uncertain heading into the middle of next week, with chc PoPs
and near normal temperatures Tuesday, trending above normal by
Wed, with chc PoPs continuing. Overnight lows remain in the 60s
to low 70s through the period. Then by Wednesday a ridge will
begin to form again near the region allowing temperatures to
rise once again.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 125 AM EDT Thursday...

Mainly VFR conditions to start off the 06z taf period this
morning. Latest satellite imagery shows a batch of low level
clouds that are causing MVFR conditions at ECG and ORF this
morning. These clouds should quickly move out of these Taf sites
within the next hour. Latest model guidance and real time
observations are showing patchy fog forming across the area.
This patchy fog could potentially bring MVFR and possibly IFR
conditions across all taf sites this morning. Tempo groups have
been added from 8z to 12z. Confidence on the timing is low at
this time as well as the length. Winds continue to be light and
variable and. However, if the winds are able to calm or drop
then the fog will quickly increase. Once the sun is able to rise
the patchy fog will be able to dissipate and VFR conditions
will prevail through the day.


Outlook: VFR/mainly dry Thu night. Scattered to numerous, mainly
aftn/evening showers/tstms return Fri-Sun, bringing localized
flight restrictions.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 230 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Message:

- Optimal marine conditions persist through the weekend.

A frontal boundary will remain nearly stationary across interior
portions of southern Virginia and eastern North Carolina through
this morning. This boundary will soon wash out later this
afternoon. Winds this morning are between 5 to 10 kt out of the
W-SW. Waves this morning are between 1 to 2 ft across the bay
and 2 to 3 ft across the ocean. Later today winds are expected
to shift out of the SSE and will be sustained between ~10kt with
gusts upwards of 15kt. Waves will not change much through the
day and will remain between 1 to 2 ft across the bay and 2 to 3
ft across the ocean. Through the weekend marine conditions are
expected to remain below SCA conditions. Thunderstorm chances
increase Friday and through the weekend.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HET/LKB
NEAR TERM...HET
SHORT TERM...HET/LKB
LONG TERM...HET/LKB
AVIATION...HET
MARINE...HET/LKB