Centreville, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

022
FXUS61 KLWX 080030
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
830 PM EDT Sun Jun 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Cancelled SCA early. No major changes to forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Cooler conditions anticipated Monday into Tuesday.

- 2) Heat, humidity, and thunderstorm chances return mid to
  late week, with heat index values possibly approaching 100.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Cooler conditions anticipated Monday into
Tuesday.

Cold front will pass south tonight. High pressure is expected
to build into the Mid- Atlantic early this week in the wake of
the front. Cooler and drier air will work its way into the
region. Sure our temperatures may still be a couple of degrees
above average, but should be a couple of degrees cooler than the
past 2 days and the humidity should be less too. High pressure
moves to the east later Tuesday to allow for an isolated shower
or two to possibly develop in the Alleghenies with the next
disturbance.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Heat, humidity, and thunderstorm chances return
mid to late week, with heat index values possibly approaching
100.

Heat will begin to build Wednesday as the surface high moves off the
coast. Ensemble temperature plots suggest Thursday and Friday will
be the hottest days with temperatures potentially well into the
90s. The heat index may rise above 100 degrees in some areas as dew
points will be higher these days compared to some of our recent hot
days.

The higher theta-e airmass will arrive on Wednesday as well, with
several opportunities for showers and thunderstorms spreading
across the area. Beyond that, there are uncertainties with how
strong mid/upper level ridging will be, and when exactly shortwaves
may approach from the northwest. In the end, there is some shower
and thunderstorm potential (mainly diurnal) Thursday through
Saturday, even if it is ultimately terrain-driven and limited in
coverage. There may be some severe weather risk given the heat and
humidity, although it may be isolated due to relatively weak shear
(assuming a stronger trough does not unfold).

A cold front will approach from the north over the weekend, although
it may not have much of a southward push. The upper level pattern
will be flattening, however, so temperatures should trend down a
little.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions through Tuesday. Winds northwest becoming
southeast around 10 knots through tomorrow at the terminals with
high pressure building. The winds should shift to the south
once the high moves east on Tuesday.

Thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon and evenings of
Wednesday through Friday. Winds likely remain 10 kt or less out of
the south or west.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds become northeast overnight into Monday. Winds becoming
southeast 10 to 15 knots late Monday through Tuesday.

Southerly flow may peak Wednesday into Wednesday night, so Small
Craft Advisories may be needed. Overall winds may trend lighter
Thursday and Friday out of the south or west.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADS/KLW/CPB
AVIATION...ADS/KLW
MARINE...ADS/KLW