Swanton, Vermont 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

766
FXUS61 KBTV 221153
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
653 AM EST Sun Dec 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Arctic high pressure will continue to bring frigid temperatures to
the region through the weekend into Monday morning. An area of low
pressure will bring widespread light snow to the region Monday night
into Tuesday. Seasonably cold and quiet conditions return for the
rest of the week with high pressure in place across the Northeastern
United States.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 632 AM EST Sunday...It is a frigid morning across the
region, with temperatures in the single digits either side of
zero. Wind chill values range from -5 to -25 in many locations
with northerly winds, making it feel bitterly cold. The Cold
Weather Advisory across the Adirondacks remain in effect until
9AM this morning. The current forecast remains on track, with
only a few minor adjustments made to reflect recent
observations.

Previous Discussion...A strong Arctic surface high centered
over the Great Lakes will shift eastward over the region,
continuing to bring bitterly cold conditions through the
weekend. After a cold start with lows overnight plummeting into
the single digits above and below zero, temperatures will
continue to unseasonably cold. Daytime temperatures will
struggle to warm, with the broader valleys climbing into the low
teens and elsewhere only reaching single digits for high
temperatures. Despite the bitter cold, some blue skies and
sunshine will make an appearance under the high pressure. With
the high directly overhead, ideal radiational cooling conditions
are expected for Sunday night, especially with many locations
receiving a fresh snowpack although the potential of some cloud
cover may limit how much some locations are able to radiate out.
Outside of the Champlain Valley, most places will drop below
zero, with temperatures of
-5 to -15 expected across portions of the Northeast Kingdom and
the Adirondacks. There is a chance that BTV may reach or drop
below zero for the first time since February of 2023. Winds will
be light and terrain driven overnight with the center of the
high overhead, which will keep apparent temperatures

Monday will start out dry with high pressure shifting eastward, with
increasing cloud cover through the day as our next system approaches
the region. Temperatures will continue to be below normal, but will
be warmer compared to Sunday, with daytime highs climbing into the
teens and lower 20s. Chances for precipitation will gradually
increase throughout the morning, with snow showers reaching the St.
Lawrence Valley by Monday evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 410 AM EST Sunday...A clipper type system will sweep through
the North Country Monday night through Tuesday bringing some breezes
along the boundary, potential for a snow squall or two, and
accumulating snow ranging 2- 4 inches. Progged strength of 850mb jet
is around 50kts and will track across over Monday night into early
Tuesday morning. This timing could mitigate some impacts to holiday
travelers, but those out and about could run into bursts of snow.
It`s not the best set up for long lived squalls with some parameters
not quite reaching necessary thresholds, but details can change
between now and Monday night. The bulk of the precipitation is
expected just behind the front supporting widespread accumulations
of 1 to 2 inches and better chances of 2-4 inches along slopes and
higher terrain. Central Vermont could end up being the "winner" with
higher elevations potentially seeing up to 6 inches of powdery snow.
Will need to see how this system evolves; winds could produce lower
valley shadowing and/or shatter dendrites, so timing of lljet will
be key. Otherwise, cooler than average temperatures will linger
through Tuesday with some warming over recent conditions into the
upper 20s to around 30 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 410 AM EST Sunday...Model signals remain for a large high
pressure to settle over the Northeast Christmas Day through the end
of the week. Model guidance is attempting to warm profiles quite a
bit through Friday, but my suspicion is that recent low level
snowpack is not being taken much into account. 925mb temperatures
remain several degrees below freezing and without strong warm air
advection any thermal gains will initially be offset by melting of
low level snow. High temperatures should warm to around averages
slightly above freezing. Models diverge wildly heading into the
weekend with some globals moving the omega pattern east quickly -
likely a result of model biases. Gave a nod to these more
progressive solutions, but could see a stubborn ridge persisting
through the weekend. Should the progressive models win out, some
chances of mixed precipitation will be possible as southerly flow
deepens and as an upstream system approaches.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 12Z Monday...A mix of VFR and MVFR conditions prevail
across terminals this morning, with all terminals trending
towards VFR this afternoon. Currently some clouds with ceilings
between 1500 to 3500 ft AGL across the region, which should
scatter out through the morning as high pressure builds into the
region. VFR conditions are expected to continue through the
remainder of the forecast period. Winds will generally be light
between 5 and 10 knots from the north/northwest through the day,
before becoming calm and/or terrain driven towards 00Z.

Outlook...

Monday: VFR. Chance SN.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR and IFR, with areas VFR possible.
Definite SN.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SN, Chance
SHSN.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Christmas Day: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for
     NYZ029>031-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kremer
NEAR TERM...Kremer
SHORT TERM...Boyd
LONG TERM...Boyd
AVIATION...Kremer