St. Albans, Vermont 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

763
FXUS61 KBTV 041445
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
Issued by National Weather Service Albany NY
1045 AM EDT Wed Jun 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Very warm and dry conditions are expected today as high
pressure prevails across the region. Temperatures under filtered
sunshine will warm into the mid 80s to near 90 with comfortable
humidity levels. A mild night is anticipated tonight with
temperatures holding in the upper 50s to upper 60s. A cold front
will produce scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms on
Thursday, with a few stronger storms capable of small hail,
gusty winds and brief heavy down pours.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1042 AM EDT Wednesday...Adjusted forecast to reflect
current observations. Some high clouds over the area as well as
filtered sunshine with smoke in the upper atmosphere. This
should not have an impact on afternoon high temperatures progged
to reach the mid 80s to around 90. Previous discussion follows.


A wide range in temps this morning across our cwa as
deeper/protected valleys have decoupled allowing temps to drop
back into the mid 40s, while midslope slopes and wider valleys
are seeing temps in the mid 60s to near 70F. Progged 925mb temps
between 22C and 24C today support highs in the mid 80s to near
90F, with some lower 90s possible across the southwest
downslope areas of the eastern Dacks/western CPV. Once again
RAP/HRRR integrated smoke outputs show highest concentration of
mid/upper level smoke this morning, with some improving
conditions this afternoon, but filtered sunshine is likely.

As mixing improves this afternoon, very dry air near ridgetops
(850mb) will mix toward the sfc and 2M dewpoints should drop
back into the upper 40s midslopes to mid 50s valleys, resulting
in comfortable humidity values. Moderate heat risk is
highlighted in most areas today across our cwa. Dewpoints
should quickly climb toward sunset this evening as deeper mixing
decreases. South/southwest winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts 15 to
25 mph likely in aligned south/southwest to north/northeast
valleys. Another quiet night anticipated with very mild and
humid conditions likely, especially urban areas in wider
valleys. Lows upper 50s to near 70F.

Scattered strong to possibly isolated severe storms are
expected on Thursday associated with approaching s/w energy and
weakening sfc cold front. This looks to be a classic NE CONUS
marginal day with moderate instability and modest deep layer
shear and forcing. Latest 00z HREF shows an axis of sfc based
CAPE values of 1800 to 2200 J/kg with 0 to 6 km shear of 20 to
30 knots across our fa ahead of approaching cold front. The s/w
energy is weak and height falls are minimal along with limited
deep layer moisture, so have trimmed back pops toward the chance
(35-45%) range on Thurs afternoon/evening. The NAM3KM and
NAM12KM soundings at BTV are very dry between 850 and 500mb,
which may limit the areal coverage of convection and this
general idea is highlighted in the progged composite
reflectivity outputs from both the HRRR and NAM solutions. The
unidirectional wind profiles suggest individual linear line
segments or multi-linear clusters as the primary convective
mode. Thursday will be much more humid with dewpoints well into
the 60s. I have trended temps toward the 50-75th percentile
values of the NBM for highs, based on progged 925mb temps
between 23-24C. Warmest readings will be across the lower CT
River Valley. Once again moderate heat risk is highlighted
across most of our cwa for Thursday, so use caution if you plan
to be outside and keep an eye to the sky for changeable
conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 351 AM EDT Wednesday...Any lingering thunderstorm
activity should decrease in areal coverage/intensity on Thurs
night with the loss of sfc heating/instability. Still a little
muggy with lows in the 60s most locations. On Friday weak sfc
boundary remains across our central/southern cwa, which could
be the focus for additional showers/storms. Still some
uncertainty on position of boundary and placement of associated
convection. Have mostly chance pops for now with cooler temps
mostly in the mid 70s to lower/mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 351 AM EDT Wednesday...Still a large spread in the latest
guidance for Saturday associated with position of sfc boundary
and track of weak area of low pres, along with the axis of
heaviest rainfall. Guidance still is jumping all around and has
yet to lock into a solution with regards to placement of these
features and associated qpf, which ranges from north of the
International Border to SNE attm. Have continued with likely
pops on Saturday as latest GFS and GFS Ensemble Mean QPF is
highlighting the potential for >1.0" across parts of our cwa.
If the boundary is north of our cwa, still anticipating a period
of showers with embedded thunder associated with s/w trof and
secondary cold front. If sfc heating occurs and creates greater
instability parameters, the potential for stronger convection
will have to be watched. In addition, pw axis of 1.25 to 1.5 is
nearby, with better forcing, so the potential for localized
heavy rainfall is still possible. For now we will continue to
monitor trends and make adjustments where necessary as we head
into the upcoming weekend. Sunday is looking drier with maybe
just a few lingering showers, as temperatures remain steady in
the 70s. Mid/upper level trof deepens across the central Great
Lakes for early next week, which result in an unsettled pattern
for our fa. A series of s/w`s and sfc boundary will swing across
our fa, resulting in daily chances of showers/storms with temps
near normal for early June.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 06z Thursday...GOES-19 shows high thin cirrus clouds
are moving across our taf sites early this morning with VFR
conditions prevailing. High confidence of VFR for all 7 taf
sites for the next 12 to 24 hours. South winds 4 to 8 knots will
become south to southwest at 10 to 15 knots with localized
gusts 20 to 25 knots after 15z. These winds will continue
through late afternoon before decreasing toward sunset at 5 to
10 knots.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Taber
NEAR TERM...Neiles/Taber
SHORT TERM...Taber
LONG TERM...Taber
AVIATION...Taber