Shelburne, Vermont 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

248
FXUS61 KBTV 021744
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
144 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Clouds will quickly thicken and lower with snow arriving across most
of the area by sunset this evening. The snow will transition to a
wintry mix, before changing to all rain by Thursday morning. A snow
and sleet accumulation of a dusting to 2 inches is possible, along
with a light glaze to a few tenths of an inch of ice accumulation.
Gusty south to southwest winds develop late tonight across the
Champlain Valley and expand into most of northern New York by
Thursday afternoon.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1036 AM EDT Wednesday...Forecast is on track this morning
with no notable changes needed. 12Z forecast data coming in
shows some disagreement with regards to the coverage of heavy
precipitation/convection tonight, but a widespread wintry mix
remains expected across the region quickly followed by gusty
winds.

Previous discussion below:
Winter weather advisory for the northern Adirondacks and along
and east of the Greens for a dusting to 2 inches of snow and
sleet, along with a light glaze to two tenths of an inch of ice
from 5 PM today to 11 AM Thursday. Areas of slick travel and a
few power outages possible. Its should be noted a period of
accumulating snow and sleet is anticipated outside the advisory
this evening, but ice accumulation should be minimal.

Wind advisory for the northern Champlain Valley and all of northern
New York from 2 AM Thursday to 8 PM Thursday for several rounds of
gusty south to southwest winds of 45 to 55 mph possible, along with
isolated power outages.

GOES 16 water vapor shows deep and closed mid/upper lvl trof acrs
the northern High Plains with strong moist conveyor belt of deep
moisture advection over the central Plains/western Great Lakes. It
was noted plenty of lightning activity overnight over the
central/northern Plains with waa and north of sfc low pres, which is
our airmass on Thurs morning and may result in a few rumbles in our
cwa.

Clouds increase from southwest to northeast acrs our cwa today with
snow quickly developing by mid/late aftn over northern NY and
spreading into VT by sunset. Temps warm into the mid 30s to lower
40s by midday, but fall quickly as burst of moderate to locally
heavy snowfall develops, due to evaporational/dynamical cooling. HREF
highlights hrly snowfall rates of 0.25 to 0.75 from northern NY into
central/northern VT this evening, which looks reasonable given
strong synoptic scale ascent from nose of 850mb jet and band of
enhanced 850 to 700mb fgen forcing. In addition, hrly qpf rates from
GFS and NAM are very impressive btwn roughly 21z and 06z from west
to east acrs our cwa. These impressive snowfall rates should quickly
produce a dusting to several inches of snowfall, even outside the
advisory area, before SLV and CPV change to plain rain by 06z, as
warmer air aloft races into our cwa. Given the intense snowfall
rates expected, anticipate areas of hazardous travel with snow cover
and slick roads, including areas outside the advisory. Meanwhile, a
change to freezing rain/sleet is expected over central/eastern and
NEK of VT and portions of the Dacks, where cold air remains trapped
near the sfc in the deeper/protected valleys. Ice accumulation of 1
to 2 tenths of an inch is likely, especially eastern VT by Thurs
morning. Once again, expect areas of slick travel everywhere at
times this evening, but improving conditions outside the advisory by
early Thurs morning. Our advisory is driven by expected ice
accumulation.

Given upstream convective activity and impressive elevated
instability parameters off the NAM/NAM 3KM and to a lesser extent
the HRRR, I have placed an isolated chance of thunder in the fcst
from roughly 06z to 12z Thurs from northern NY into central/northern
VT. NAM solutions continue to indicate MUCAPE values of 500 to 800
J/kg, while Prob Thunder off the NBM is 20 to 25%. Given the progged
instability, lift and pw values greater than 1.0", localized heavy
pockets of convective precip is likely on Thursday morning, which wl
result in areas of higher qpf. Event total qpf wl range btwn 0.50
and 1.0 with localized amounts up to 1.50" possible over northern NY
into VT, with sharp rises on streams/rivers anticipated on Thurs.

Next hazard to examine is the potential for gusty winds associated
with several enhanced periods of progged 850mb winds of 55 to 75
knots. First window of strong winds occurs btwn 3 AM and 10 AM Thurs
when mixing is limited due to precip, but feel channeled flow and
bottom of mixed layer winds of 45 to 50 knots here in the CPV,
support localized gusts 45 to 50 mph. Similar gusts are possible
over the northern slopes of the Dacks, along the route 11 corridor.
Meanwhile, a secondary surge of gusty southwest to westerly winds
are anticipated btwn 2 PM and 8 PM impacting all of northern NY into
portions of northern VT associated with deeper mixing under caa
aloft. This scenario supports localized gusts 45 to 55 mph over
northern NY and 40 to 50 mph acrs portions of VT. The wind advisory
may need to be expanded to include portions of the NEK and east side
of the Greens on Thurs aftn/evening.

As clearing develops on Thurs morning temps should quickly warm into
the mid 50s eastern VT to mid/upper 60s CPV and SLV by Thurs aftn.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 426 AM EDT Wednesday...Cold front is moving across VT at the
beginning of this time period with decent cold air advection and
still a decent gradient and jet so it will be breezy in the evening
then decrease overnight as high pressure from the Great Lakes
approaches for Friday.

Friday will feature high pressure building into the area for one
sunny day with temperatures above seasonable in the M40s-M50s across
the region.

Big picture...rather strong sub-tropical upper level ridge (592dm)
across the SE Coast will have influence in our weather in the longer
term but for Friday night it will mean surface high cresting early
then pushing east with WSW upper flow and disturbance along the
periphery of this ridge and stationary front to bring moisture
into our region but not until the weekend.

Therefore...Friday night will remain dry with increasing clouds and
temperatures falling below freezing for most of the region with the
exception of the Champlain Vly where it may be a few degrees
above 32f.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 426 AM EDT Wednesday...Again...big picture is the SE Upper
Level ridge and the deep Four Corners upper low and surface
reflection around TX Friday night- Saturday and an elongated
stationary front that elongates northeast into the OH Rvr Vly.

It looks like the strength of this SE Ridge will likely slow the
progression of the stationary boundary and may allow multiple
surface lows to travel along the boundary and across our CWA.

Initially it looks like the first surface reflection moves into the
Oh Vly and into western NY by Saturday midday-early afternoon with
precipitation overspreading the area in the morning. Initially
temperatures are near/above freezing but dewpoints in the 20s
should allow some wet bulbing and mixed snow/sleet/rain for a
few hours then warming up changing to rain.

After this initial surge, there may be a slight lull in activity
until more waves of low pressure ride up along the front Saturday
night-Sunday. By then...warm air advection will allow for primarily
rain across the CWA.

On Sunday...northern stream upper low near James Bay rotates some
energy with the timing and strength determining the stationary
boundary progression. If the boundary remains across the heart of
our CWA per the ECMWF then steadier rain eventually becoming showery
late with enough cold air on the backside for potential rain/snow
mix, especially the higher elevations. The GFS has it a bit more
progressive, thus showery early with rain/snow mix earlier on
Sunday as well.

I`m tending to lean toward the slower ECMWF given its slower
progression and the tendency for high amplitude systems with large
ridging east to move slower.

By Monday...the weekend system is east while we await a strong
shortwave to round the bottom of the northern upper low across the
Great Lakes Monday and across our area Monday night. This will bring
colder air with rain to snow showers late.

Tuesday looks like we`ll still be under the influence of the
northern stream upper low with broad, cold cyclonic flow across the
area and the longwave trof axis still rotating through for
possible snow/rain showers.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 18Z Thursday...VFR conditions persist at all terminals
for the next few hours. Precipitation quickly overspreads the
region this evening from west to east. It should generally start
as snow for a few hours and then change to sleet for a couple
hours. It will then change to rain, except at EFK and MPV where
a period of freezing rain is expected before it changes to rain.
The snow will come down heavy at times, and visibilities during
it should be IFR. The sleet will probably lean toward MVFR
visibilities and the rain would be mostly VFR, except brief
periods of lower visibilities in the heaviest showers. The rain
becomes more scattered later in the night and during the day
tomorrow. Some thunder is possible in the region late tonight
and tomorrow. Ceilings are expected to lower to MVFR as the
precipitation arrives, and a few periods of IFR ceilings are
possible. Winds will increase later in the night and become
southerly. Peak gusts of 15-30 KTs are expected tomorrow, except
gusts up to 40 KTs are possible at BTV and PBG. LLWS develops
tonight and continues into the day tomorrow.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: VFR. Windy with gusts to 35 kt. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Definite SHRA,
Slight chance SHSN.
Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Definite
SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Sunday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Wind Advisory from 2 AM to 8 PM EDT Thursday for VTZ001-002-
     005.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 AM EDT
     Thursday for VTZ018>021.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 11 AM EDT
     Thursday for VTZ003-004-006>008-010.
NY...Wind Advisory from 2 AM to 8 PM EDT Thursday for NYZ026>031-
     034-035-087.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 AM EDT
     Thursday for NYZ029>031-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Taber
NEAR TERM...Kutikoff/Taber
SHORT TERM...SLW
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...Myskowski