Rutland, Vermont 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

266
FXUS61 KBTV 272348
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
748 PM EDT Sun Jul 27 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers with a rumble of thunder will be possible this
afternoon with decreasing rain chances tonight. A warming trend will
be seen on Monday and Tuesday with highs climbing into the mid to
upper 80s with some locations approaching 90 degrees both days.
Additional showers and thunderstorms cannot be ruled out on Tuesday
with more widespread showers and thunderstorms expected Wednesday.
Below normal temperatures and dry weather will be seen on Thursday
and Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 135 PM EDT Sunday...We are stuck in a bit of a messy pattern
for the rest of today and throughout the day on Monday. A complex
frontal system has virtually stalled across the North Country this
afternoon which has significantly impacted how the precipitation has
panned out thus far. Based on rainfall reports this morning (several
places 1.5-3"), in the warm front is stalled near the International
Border and stuck over the Green Mountains. The visible satellite
imagery depicts this well with a plethora of low level clouds stuck
east of the greens with a gradually destabilizing warm sector across
the Adirondacks and western Vermont. Increasing breaks in the cloud
cover this afternoon will yield pockets of 500-750 J/kg of SBCAPE
which could be enough to spark a few showers with some rumbles of
thunder. Poor mid-level lapse rates will make it hard for any
thunderstorms to get established so we only expect a few strikes if
we get any at all.

The question for tonight will be how quickly we can scour our the
boundary layer moisture given the lack of mixing due to an abundance
of cloud cover. The general thinking is while we will see subsidence
and drying in the mid-levels (as seen on WV imagery), the boundary
layer/surface layer is likely to remain largely saturated from
todays rainfall. This should help set the stage for some patchy fog
but whether or not we see dense fog will largely be dependent on
another shortwave that the high-res guidance has moving overhead
tonight. This would usher in the potential for a few showers but
more importantly would increase cloud cover and limit radiational
cooling.

Monday continues to look cooler and cooler as a series of shortwaves
tonight and again Monday night will suppress the south. Just 48
hours ago we were looking at high temperatures on Monday in the
upper 80s to mid 90s and now we are looking at highs in the mid to
upper 80s. With a plethora of mid-level dry air on Monday, we should
see decent mixing in the afternoon with dewpoints falling from the
upper 60s to the upper 50s which will help make it feel more
comfortable. Another shortwave, in what seems to be never ending
northwesterly flow aloft, will bring the potential for some showers
and thunderstorms late on Monday but confidence in timing and
placement is pretty low as subtle changes in the longwave pattern
today will have a big change on this feature going forward.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 135 PM EDT Sunday...Tuesday continues to look like the warmest
day of the week but still not quite as warm as previously thought.
The idea that the upper level ridge axis will remain largely to our
south remains consistent but there are still some models showing the
ridge axis expanding north of the International Border Tuesday
afternoon. The general thinking is that we will remain below heat
advisory threshold at most, if not all, locations on Tuesday but
there is still a decent chance parts of the southern Champlain
Valley and southern Connecticut River Valley will be close to the 95
degree threshold. Another potential fly in the ointment will be the
possibility for a few pop up showers/thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon
as a low amplitude shortwave could coincide with peak heating. The
placement of this feature will be dependent on how far north the
ridge axis spread on Tuesday but the growing consensus shows this
feature moving through the North Country Tuesday afternoon and
evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 205 PM EDT Sunday...Weds continues to look like our
transition day from warm and humid conditions to much cooler and
drier for late week into the upcoming weekend. Still some spread
noted in the latest guidance package with regards to s/w timing,
frontal movement, and amount of instability. We wl cont to have
30% to 60% probabilities for precip on Weds, with highest values
during the aftn/early evening hours. We wl cont to fine tune
pops as confidence in timing and impacts increases. An early
look at instability shows the best sfc based CAPE values from
the eastern Dacks into VT with readings in the 800-1500 J/kg,
while deep layer shear is btwn 25 and 40 knots acrs our
central/northern cwa. As always it wl come down to timing and
if best instability can interact with the strongest shear, for
determining how robust the convection can become. Highs Weds wl
be upper 70s to upper 80s with near 90F in the CT River Valley.

Confidence conts to grow for an extended period of at or below
normal temps and dry conditions associated with building 1030mb
high pres. This high pres wl produce much drier sfc dwpts with
mild days and cool nights. Still some concerns associated with
the west/northwest 700-500mb flow, which could advect additional
Canadian Wildfire smoke into our region. Areas of fog is likely
in the favored river valleys for Friday and Sat mornings. Highs
in the upper 60s to mid 70s with lows mid 40s to upper 50s,
except upper 30s NEK/SLK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 00Z Tuesday...All showers and thunderstorms have moved
away from the area with all terminals trending towards VFR. With
the heavier rainfall, particularly at SLK/MPV/EFK and RUT after
peak heating, confidence remains high on patchy to locally
dense fog forming overnight. Between 02-05Z, fog will begin to
develop as a surface inversion sets in with clearing skies,
smoke, and calming winds. Generally by 05-06Z, fog should be
firmly in place with IFR visibilities at SLK/EFK/MPV and RUT.
There is growing confidence in some MVFR BR and patchy fog in
the area at PBG/MSS/BTV but not enough confidence to yield IFR
fog in this TAF. 3SM visibilities look likely at BTV/PBG with
dewpoints still in the low 70s at the time of this TAF. Some
light surface winds may also limit any denser fog at
PBG/BTV/MSS. By 12Z, locations seeing fog should see
visibilities and ceilings trend towards VFR with haze from
Canadian Wildfire smoke potentially limiting visibilities to
MVFR for tomorrow. Winds overnight and into tomorrow should
remain calm and variable.

Outlook...

Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Clay
NEAR TERM...Clay
SHORT TERM...Clay
LONG TERM...Taber
AVIATION...Danzig