Essex, Vermont 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

404
FXUS61 KBTV 080053
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
853 PM EDT Sun Jun 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 852 PM EDT Sunday...

Winds have dropped below 20 kt on Lake Champlain, so have taken
the Lake Wind Advisory down with this update. No other changes
needed at this time.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 245 PM EDT Sunday...

1. Dry and warmer weather expected early this week with
increasing chances of showers on Wednesday.

2. Warm and humid weather is expected towards the latter half
of next week, with chances for showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 245 PM EDT Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Fcst challenge tonight is timing of clearing and
potential for fog after midnight. GOES-19 water vapor imagery shows
pocket of mid lvl moisture exiting central/southern VT, while deep
subsidence is quickly developing near the International Border. As
sfc high pres builds into our cwa and drier air aloft mixes toward
the sfc, expect clearing skies to develop this evening into the
overnight hours. Initially bl winds are in the 5 to 15 knot range
with some sounding data showing 15 to 25 knots in the 500 ft to 1000
ft agl, which does not support fog development. However, 1025mb high
pres builds directly over SLK by 12z and feel bl should decouple
allowing for several hours of shallow dense fog to develop. The
highest probability based on winds, recent rainfall, and cross over
temps being reached wl be acrs northern NY into parts of
central/northern VT, including the NEK and parts of the CT River
Valley. Temps wl range from mid/upper 30s SLK to near 50F CPV.

Monday and Tuesday...mid/upper lvl ridge builds directly overhead
with sfc high pres slowly sliding off the East Coast. These two days
wl feature classic North Country summer-time Chamber of Commerce
weather with mostly sunny skies, comfortable humidity values and
temps mid 70s to mid 80s. Given deep dry layer in place, expect a
large swing between cool overnight lows and mild daytime highs
especially Monday night into Tues. Near critically low humidity
values are possible on Tues, but winds are mostly light and trrn
driven.

For Weds...latest fcst shows mid/upper lvl ridge breaking down as
s/w energy in the westerly flow aloft moves acrs our cwa. This
energy combined with a warm frnt lifting from sw to ne acrs our cwa,
wl produce a period of rain showers. The mid/upper lvl pattern
becomes rather messy on Weds aftn with lingering s/w energy acrs our
northern cwa and potential for a developing trof. This synoptic
scale scenario, combined with pw values climbing btwn 1.25 and 1.50"
could support several rounds of showers with increasing humidity
values. However, with the clouds/precip, temps may hold in the 70s
to near 80F most of the day, especially if warm frnt becomes draped
acrs our northern cwa. Plenty of time to fine tune the fcst, but did
trend a little wetter and cooler for Weds, given recent trends in
our data.

KEY MESSAGE 2: A messy weather pattern is expected for the latter half
of next week as southerly flow continues to usher in warm and humid
conditions. High temperatures look to climb into the 80s and lower
90s, with dewpoints in the 60s making it feel quite muggy. With such
a humid airmass across the region, there look to be daily chances
for showers and thunderstorms to end the week, especially across
northern New York where instability looks to be the greatest.
Heading into the weekend, there still remains a large amount of
uncertainty regarding pattern evolution with model solutions
diverging this far out.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 00Z Tuesday...Other than some brief MVFR at KSLK/KRUT
early in the period, generally anticipate VFR conditions with
clearing skies through 06z. Winds will gradually lessen from
west to east as high pressure noses into the region, and this
will allow for fog development overnight. Highest confidence in
fog is at KMSS and KSLK, along with KRUT. There are some signals
that fog may briefly move over the KBTV airfield, but have
stayed with VCFG for now given the uncertainty. For KMPV and
KEFK, winds will be slowest to abate there, so expect if any fog
is able to develop, it will be very brief and likely right
around sunrise. Otherwise, IFR/LIFR is possible in any fog, with
08z-11z the most likely period to see reductions in visibility
and low ceilings. Skies clear from 12z onward with VFR to
prevail thereafter. N/NE winds 5-8 kt this evening become light
to near calm overnight, then pick back up from the NW after 12z
Mon.

Outlook...

Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Definite SHRA,
Chance TSRA.
Wednesday Night: MVFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Hastings
DISCUSSION...Taber/Kremer
AVIATION...Hastings