Essex, Vermont 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

383
FXUS61 KBTV 021058
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
658 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Clouds will quickly thicken and lower with snow arriving across most
of the area by sunset this evening. The snow will transition to a
wintry mix, before changing to all rain by Thursday morning. A snow
and sleet accumulation of a dusting to 2 inches is possible, along
with a light glaze to a few tenths of an inch of ice accumulation.
Gusty south to southwest winds develop late tonight across the
Champlain Valley and expand into most of northern New York by
Thursday afternoon.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 646 AM EDT Wednesday...No significant changes to near term
fcst attm. Latest observations show an impressive area of
lightning north of warm frnt acrs the southern Great Lakes and
northern part of the Ohio Valley, along with an area of cooling
cloud tops on IR imagery. This atmosphere instability is progged
to angle toward the NE CONUS tonight, increasing the threat of
convective precip and embedded heavier precip rates. Best chance
of a rumble of thunder is btwn midnight and 6 AM tonight as this
elevated instability moves acrs our fa. As the better
instability arrives most precip should be in the form of rain,
except portions of eastern VT, where some pockets of freezing
rain is possible. All covered well in crnt fcst.

Previous discussion below:
Winter weather advisory for the northern Adirondacks and along
and east of the Greens for a dusting to 2 inches of snow and
sleet, along with a light glaze to two tenths of an inch of ice
from 5 PM today to 11 AM Thursday. Areas of slick travel and a
few power outages possible. Its should be noted a period of
accumulating snow and sleet is anticipated outside the advisory
this evening, but ice accumulation should be minimal.

Wind advisory for the northern Champlain Valley and all of northern
New York from 2 AM Thursday to 8 PM Thursday for several rounds of
gusty south to southwest winds of 45 to 55 mph possible, along with
isolated power outages.

GOES 16 water vapor shows deep and closed mid/upper lvl trof acrs
the northern High Plains with strong moist conveyor belt of deep
moisture advection over the central Plains/western Great Lakes. It
was noted plenty of lightning activity overnight over the
central/northern Plains with waa and north of sfc low pres, which is
our airmass on Thurs morning and may result in a few rumbles in our
cwa.

Clouds increase from southwest to northeast acrs our cwa today with
snow quickly developing by mid/late aftn over northern NY and
spreading into VT by sunset. Temps warm into the mid 30s to lower
40s by midday, but fall quickly as burst of moderate to locally
heavy snowfall develops, due to evaporational/dynamical cooling. HREF
highlights hrly snowfall rates of 0.25 to 0.75 from northern NY into
central/northern VT this evening, which looks reasonable given
strong synoptic scale ascent from nose of 850mb jet and band of
enhanced 850 to 700mb fgen forcing. In addition, hrly qpf rates from
GFS and NAM are very impressive btwn roughly 21z and 06z from west
to east acrs our cwa. These impressive snowfall rates should quickly
produce a dusting to several inches of snowfall, even outside the
advisory area, before SLV and CPV change to plain rain by 06z, as
warmer air aloft races into our cwa. Given the intense snowfall
rates expected, anticipate areas of hazardous travel with snow cover
and slick roads, including areas outside the advisory. Meanwhile, a
change to freezing rain/sleet is expected over central/eastern and
NEK of VT and portions of the Dacks, where cold air remains trapped
near the sfc in the deeper/protected valleys. Ice accumulation of 1
to 2 tenths of an inch is likely, especially eastern VT by Thurs
morning. Once again, expect areas of slick travel everywhere at
times this evening, but improving conditions outside the advisory by
early Thurs morning. Our advisory is driven by expected ice
accumulation.

Given upstream convective activity and impressive elevated
instability parameters off the NAM/NAM 3KM and to a lesser extent
the HRRR, I have placed an isolated chance of thunder in the fcst
from roughly 06z to 12z Thurs from northern NY into central/northern
VT. NAM solutions continue to indicate MUCAPE values of 500 to 800
J/kg, while Prob Thunder off the NBM is 20 to 25%. Given the progged
instability, lift and pw values greater than 1.0", localized heavy
pockets of convective precip is likely on Thursday morning, which wl
result in areas of higher qpf. Event total qpf wl range btwn 0.50
and 1.0 with localized amounts up to 1.50" possible over northern NY
into VT, with sharp rises on streams/rivers anticipated on Thurs.

Next hazard to examine is the potential for gusty winds associated
with several enhanced periods of progged 850mb winds of 55 to 75
knots. First window of strong winds occurs btwn 3 AM and 10 AM Thurs
when mixing is limited due to precip, but feel channeled flow and
bottom of mixed layer winds of 45 to 50 knots here in the CPV,
support localized gusts 45 to 50 mph. Similar gusts are possible
over the northern slopes of the Dacks, along the route 11 corridor.
Meanwhile, a secondary surge of gusty southwest to westerly winds
are anticipated btwn 2 PM and 8 PM impacting all of northern NY into
portions of northern VT associated with deeper mixing under caa
aloft. This scenario supports localized gusts 45 to 55 mph over
northern NY and 40 to 50 mph acrs portions of VT. The wind advisory
may need to be expanded to include portions of the NEK and east side
of the Greens on Thurs aftn/evening.

As clearing develops on Thurs morning temps should quickly warm into
the mid 50s eastern VT to mid/upper 60s CPV and SLV by Thurs aftn.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 426 AM EDT Wednesday...Cold front is moving across VT at the
beginning of this time period with decent cold air advection and
still a decent gradient and jet so it will be breezy in the evening
then decrease overnight as high pressure from the Great Lakes
approaches for Friday.

Friday will feature high pressure building into the area for one
sunny day with temperatures above seasonable in the M40s-M50s across
the region.

Big picture...rather strong sub-tropical upper level ridge (592dm)
across the SE Coast will have influence in our weather in the longer
term but for Friday night it will mean surface high cresting early
then pushing east with WSW upper flow and disturbance along the
periphery of this ridge and stationary front to bring moisture
into our region but not until the weekend.

Therefore...Friday night will remain dry with increasing clouds and
temperatures falling below freezing for most of the region with the
exception of the Champlain Vly where it may be a few degrees
above 32f.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 426 AM EDT Wednesday...Again...big picture is the SE Upper
Level ridge and the deep Four Corners upper low and surface
reflection around TX Friday night- Saturday and an elongated
stationary front that elongates northeast into the OH Rvr Vly.

It looks like the strength of this SE Ridge will likely slow the
progression of the stationary boundary and may allow multiple
surface lows to travel along the boundary and across our CWA.

Initially it looks like the first surface reflection moves into the
Oh Vly and into western NY by Saturday midday-early afternoon with
precipitation overspreading the area in the morning. Initially
temperatures are near/above freezing but dewpoints in the 20s
should allow some wet bulbing and mixed snow/sleet/rain for a
few hours then warming up changing to rain.

After this initial surge, there may be a slight lull in activity
until more waves of low pressure ride up along the front Saturday
night-Sunday. By then...warm air advection will allow for primarily
rain across the CWA.

On Sunday...northern stream upper low near James Bay rotates some
energy with the timing and strength determining the stationary
boundary progression. If the boundary remains across the heart of
our CWA per the ECMWF then steadier rain eventually becoming showery
late with enough cold air on the backside for potential rain/snow
mix, especially the higher elevations. The GFS has it a bit more
progressive, thus showery early with rain/snow mix earlier on
Sunday as well.

I`m tending to lean toward the slower ECMWF given its slower
progression and the tendency for high amplitude systems with large
ridging east to move slower.

By Monday...the weekend system is east while we await a strong
shortwave to round the bottom of the northern upper low across the
Great Lakes Monday and across our area Monday night. This will bring
colder air with rain to snow showers late.

Tuesday looks like we`ll still be under the influence of the
northern stream upper low with broad, cold cyclonic flow across the
area and the longwave trof axis still rotating through for
possible snow/rain showers.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 12Z Thursday...High confidence for VFR conditions at
all sites through 18z today with light winds under 10 knots.
Conditions change rapidly this aftn into the evening hours as
snow/rain quickly overspreads our taf sites from southwest to
northeast. Vis will quickly drop to IFR to locally LIFR in light
to moderate snow between 20-00z today, before increasing to
MVFR with local IFR vis in a wintry mix of snow, sleet, and
freezing rain. Any wintry mix precip should change to all rain
by 09z Thursday as temperatures climb above freezing. A rumble
or two of thunder is possible overnight in heavier bursts of
precip with some light icing likely at MPV/MSS/SLK and EFK.
Next aviation concern wl be strong and gusty winds developing
toward 06z Thursday with increasing turbulence and shear likely,
especially by 12z Thursday. Localized gusts up to 35 knots
likely toward sunrise Thursday at BTV.

Outlook...

Thursday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Strong winds with gusts
to 40 kt. Likely RA, Chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. Windy with gusts to 30 kt. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Likely RA.
Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Definite
RA.
Sunday: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance RA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Wind Advisory from 2 AM to 8 PM EDT Thursday for VTZ001-002-
     005.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 AM EDT
     Thursday for VTZ018>021.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 11 AM EDT
     Thursday for VTZ003-004-006>008-010.
NY...Wind Advisory from 2 AM to 8 PM EDT Thursday for NYZ026>031-
     034-035-087.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 AM EDT
     Thursday for NYZ029>031-034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Taber
NEAR TERM...Taber
SHORT TERM...SLW
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...Taber