Essex Junction, Vermont 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

564
FXUS61 KBTV 100757
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
357 AM EDT Tue Jun 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Area of showers continues to slowly push eastward across the
region. A second line will likely pass through in the afternoon
and evening associated with the actual cold front. Drier weather
will prevail for the rest of the week, though there will still
be a few shower chances.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 330 AM EDT Tuesday...Showers continue to very slowly push
eastward across our area. Showers are still across our northern
New York zones, but will push eastward towards early morning
into Vermont. There is no longer any lightning with this
activity. There will be an additional line of showers this
afternoon with actual frontal passage. This will be a high shear
low CAPE scenario, and the CAPE looks minimal for anything
severe, though it will need to be watched if more clearing can
occur before it moves through. It will likely weaken east of the
Greens where a marine modified airmass will still be in place.
Maximum temperatures today will only be in the upper 60s to mid
70s. Behind the front, temperatures will fall back into the 50s
for most places, with some upper 40s in the Dacks possible.
Wednesday should mainly be dry, though have a slight chance for
some afternoon showers as upper level shortwave moves across the
area. High temperatures will be a bit warmer on Wednesday,
reaching the upper 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 330 AM EDT Tuesday...Brief scattered showers are possible
Wednesday night along a weak front associated with a low
centered over northern Quebec traverses the North Country. The
primary focus will be near the international border, but chance
showers may shift slightly south depending on how north the low
sits in Quebec in future model runs. Any severe weather
potential continues to remain low with the timing of the front
passing through in the waining hours of any diurnal heating.
Furthermore, progged instability shows lower sfc based CAPE near
200 J/kg near sunset. The main concern will be any gusty winds
that may accompany these showers. Low-level wind profiles
suggest winds may gust up to 30-35 knots with 40 to 50 knots of
deep layer shear present. Mountain summits may see gusts 40-50
knots as a low-level jet develops and slides across the region.
The timing of the winds may be associated with the development
of the nocturnal boundary layer which may increase the
probability of these gusty winds being brought to the surface.
Overnight lows will be relatively seasonable in the upper 50s in
the higher terrain to low 60s in the Champlain Valley.

Showers will taper off quickly as they approach Vermont by
Thursday morning with large-scale west-northwest flow dominating
behind. Thursday looks to be a typical North Country summer day
with highs in the 70s and light winds. High pressure will begin
to nose in from the northeast with diurnally driven cumulus
cloud development across the higher terrain. Given the
west/northwest flow HRRR-RAP vertically integrated smoke
forecast show a resurgence of Canadian wildfire smoke into the
region by mid-week.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 330 AM EDT Tuesday...No significant or widespread
hazardous weather is anticipated in the long term portion of the
forecast. Large-scale northwesterly, nearly zonal, flow looks
to set up for late week and into the weekend. Dry air will also
look to develop as a nose of high pressure continues to sit just
to the east of the region. Clear skies, and dry conditions will
make ideal conditions for large temperature swings with lows
generally in the upper 40s to low 50s and daytime highs in the
upper 60s to low 70s. Thursday night through Friday looks to be
ideal typical summer conditions. By late Friday night, trends
have fluctuated precipitation chances about central Vermont as
upper- level confluence will bring some energy into the area.
Weak stratiform rain across the southern regions look possible
Friday night into Saturday morning before upper level high
pressure builds in and drags most of the precipitation and
warmer air south of our area by Saturday afternoon. Dynamics
aloft look weak with no real forcing or organized system, but
rather open-wave energy associated with a decaying surface low
across the Midwest. Due to the presence of the initial nose of
high pressure to our east, soundings have shown decent dry air
in place ahead of the Friday nigh energy, indicating some
difficulty in appreciable QPF at the onset. However, NBM
probabilities of greater than 0.5 inches are 30-40% for the
timeframe across southern Vermont. While the weekend looks to be
on the seasonably cooler side, warmer air returns for next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 06Z Wednesday...A mix of MVFR and VFR conditions
prevail across the region overnight with an area of showers
slowly moving across the north country, with ceilings gradually
lowering as rain moves in. The best chances of precipitation
overnight will be across northern New York, with additional
showers expected throughout the day Tuesday. Some visibility
reductions will be possible within heavier showers. Winds will
generally remain southerly throughout the forecast period,
around 5 to 12 knots, with increasing gusts during the
afternoon.

Outlook...

Wednesday: VFR. Windy with gusts to 30 kt. Isolated SHRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Scattered SHRA.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Neiles
NEAR TERM...Neiles
SHORT TERM...Danzig
LONG TERM...Danzig
AVIATION...Neiles