Colchester, Vermont 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

776
FXUS61 KBTV 091431
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1031 AM EDT Mon Jun 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Light rain showers will be possible this morning, mainly over
northern New York and southern Vermont. Breezy south winds will help
clear out the worst of the wildfire smoke by this afternoon. Better
chances for more widespread showers arrive this evening and continue
through Tuesday as a couple of rounds of showers and possible
thunderstorms cross the region from west to east.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1029 AM EDT Monday...The light rain showers have held
together a little more than anticipated this morning so
increased PoPs a little more for the rest of the morning and the
early afternoon. Still expect rainfall amounts to be light with
little in the way of impact. Otherwise, the forecast is in good
shape so no significant changes were needed with this update.

Previous discussion...Light rain showers will continue to lift
northeastward through the morning hours in response to warm air
advection ahead of low pressure shifting into the Great Lakes.
This activity has been eroding as it encounters high pressure
over our region, and expect this trend will continue through
much of the day today. Still, occasional light rain will be
possible for a good part of the day, mainly in northern NY and
perhaps south central VT; northeast VT has the best chances of
staying dry. South winds will be a little on the breezy side
today, and this should help to finally scour out the wildfire
smoke. Highs will be in the mid 60s to mid 70s.

Precipitation chances will increase late today and especially
overnight tonight into Tuesday as a warm front pushes across the
area, quickly followed by a cold front. Deep moisture will spread
northward on a strong S/SW jet, and PWATs will surge to around 1.50
inch as we briefly get into the warm sector. The result will be a
couple of rounds of showers with embedded thunderstorms. The first,
associated with the warm front, will move into the St Lawrence
Valley late today and trek eastward through Monday morning. Timing
is not optimal for strong convection as it`ll be after peak heating,
but there will be some minimal elevated instability with this
initial band of showers, so would expect at least a few rumbles of
thunder. In spite of the high PWATs, the best moisture will remain
well to our south, and expect there will enough flow to allow
showers to make good eastward progress, limiting the threat of
training or slow-moving cells. So while some briefly heavy rain may
occur, mainly in the St Lawrence Valley given more favorable timing,
flooding is not anticipated. This first round of showers will cross
NY/VT and should exit into NH by mid/late afternoon Tuesday, with a
short break thereafter. However, another line of showers and
possible thunderstorms will form along the cold front. This band
will be narrower than the first. Note that some of the CAM guidance
is indicating there will be enough time between the two rounds of
showers that the atmosphere could recover enough for SB CAPE values
of 500+ J/kg. Current thinking is that this is a bit overdone,
though it`ll depend on how quickly the first band of showers
progresses; models still disagree on exact timing. Regardless,
expect there could be thunder with the second line of showers as
well, along with some brief heavy downpours. Again, no flooding is
expected. Tuesday`s highs will be similar to today, in the mid 60s
to mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 316 AM EDT Monday...A broken line of showers, with perhaps a
thunderstorm, will be exiting eastern Vermont by midnight, with
otherwise dry conditions and clearing skies under westerly flow
behind a weak cold front. Little air mass change will occur other
than to filter in drier air. With plenty of flow aloft and lowering
dew points, do not anticipate fog formation despite the likely wet
conditions from the day`s rain. Most likely low temperatures will be
in the 50s for most locations, although if the boundary layer stays
mixed throughout the night some of the wider valleys could stay in
the 60s.

A stronger surface cold front will approach the area from the
northwest on Wednesday, helping to turn low level flow back to the
south. With plentiful dry air in place, shower chances look low but
non-zero as some weak upper level spin rotates through the long wave
trough overhead; as such, have indicated a bit higher
chances/isolated showers in the mountains and far northern portions
of the region. Otherwise, it should be a seasonably warm and mostly
sunny day. Upstream concentrations of smoke are anticipated to be
less significant than this past week, but cannot rule out
possibility of haze coming in from the west given the weather
pattern. For much of the region it will probably be the warmest day
of the week, with high temperatures ranging from the middle 70s to
lower 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The aforementioned cold front may spark a brief period of rain
Wednesday night or early Thursday, with greatest chances again
towards northernmost Vermont and New York. Aside from that, largely
dry and slightly cooler than normal weather could persist through
the entire long term period as an anomalously strong area of high
pressure builds in from the northwest. Friday in particular looks
quiet refreshing with northerly flow filtering in unseasonably dry
air. The ridging could block a frontal boundary that will be
positioned over the Midwest late in the week with a wave or waves of
lower pressure moving eastward along it. As of 316 AM EDT Monday.
Enough global ensemble members, and consistent with some
deterministic model runs, do bring measurable rain into northern New
York and Vermont at times throughout the weekend to have about 20-
35% chance of rain, with greatest chances in the southern Greens.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 12Z Tuesday...VFR conditions will continue to prevail
at all terminals for most of the first half of the forecast
period, with conditions lowering in rain showers thereafter.
Light rain showers will move through this morning into the early
afternoon, exiting by 18z, but impacts/coverage not enough to
warrant any mention beyond PROB30 for all but KRUT. Ceilings AOA
6000 ft this morning will lower through the daylight hours,
then more widespread showers expected to move from west to east
after 03z, with clouds lowering to MVFR, and possibly IFR.
Visibility reduced to 5-6SM. A period of LLWS will at several
terminals between through 16z, especially across northern New
York and southern Vermont. Winds will trend to the
south/southeast at 6-12 kt through the period, with some gusts
of 15-20 kt this afternoon.

Outlook...

Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Definite SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. Isolated SHRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Thursday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hastings
NEAR TERM...Hastings/Myskowski
SHORT TERM...Kutikoff
LONG TERM...Kutikoff
AVIATION...Hastings