Colchester, Vermont 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

701
FXUS61 KBTV 160649
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
249 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 246 AM EDT Sunday...

No significant changes have been made.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 246 AM EDT Monday...

1. High Wind Warning and Wind Advisories continue for multiple
rounds of gusty winds through Tuesday morning with the strongest
winds expected along the northern Dacks and north-western slopes of
the Greens. Isolated to scattered power outages are possible.

2. River rises expected from rain and snow melt, but river
flooding is presently not anticipated.

3. Sharply colder Monday night with lake effect snow on
Tuesday. Slick travel conditions will be possible Tuesday morning.

4. Seasonable weather expected for the latter half of this
week, with a few chances for showers.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 246 AM EDT Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Wind gusts have been on the rise across the region. The
Lake Placid NYS Mesonet has gusted to 65 mph already, and several
other locations across Vermont and northern New York have gusted
towards 40-50 mph. KTYX VADs show that winds aloft have decreased
from about 75 knots at 2000 feet towards 60 knots, and high res
guidance does support a brief lull before ramping up during pre-dawn
hours ahead of a plume of Atlantic moisture. Upstream observations
across western New York state show several 40-50 mph gusts, locally
up to 60 mph. So our forecast appears on track.

Some precipitation will arrive early to mid-morning, and this will
help stabilize conditions while the LLJ also wanes some. 850mb flow
will cycle back upwards this afternoon, and the combination of warm
advection and downslope warming will produce another round of
increased gusts. Finally, as a strong cold front approaches from the
west towards evening, 850mb flow will maximize to 70-80 knots ahead
of the frontal boundary, especially over Vermont. This first round
of winds will affect favored northwestern downslope areas, and the
channeled flow ahead of the front this afternoon will likely produce
stronger gusts for the Champlain Valley.

Behind the front, enhanced mixing will result in better mixing of
the 50-55 knots southwest to west flow behind the strong cold front.
Widespread gusts of 35-50 mph are expected Monday night into Tuesday
afternoon. After noon, the strongest low-level winds will likely be
south of the area and the intensity of the LLJ will begin to
decrease. Given the intervals of gusts, changing wind direction on
Tuesday, and the soggy soils at lower elevations, scattered power
outages appears likely, especially for northern slopes of the
Adirondacks.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Several rounds of precipitation are expected throughout
today. The initial wave of moisture is visible along the Mid-
Atlantic Coast and quickly surging northwards. Currently, any area
below freezing are in elevated, sheltered hollows. However, even
high resolution guidance that passably forecasts our cold hollows
shows warming above freezing by about 6 AM, which is about when
precipitation is expected to arrive. So the chance for freezing
drizzle is looking diminished, though is still present in the
forecast for parts of the area. Limited impacts are expected. This
first wave of drizzle or light rain shifts northeast late this
morning after dropping roughly 0.05-0.40" of liquid, especially in
southeastern Vermont and southern summits.

Fast flow aloft is going to scatter precipitation midday.
Approaching evening, some discrete convection may develop to our
south and lift north ahead of the main boundary. With the strong
south flow overhead, orographic enhancement will result in some of
this hanging on for southern areas, but struggling to get
northwards. The sharp cold front will pass through after sunset.
Moderate to locally heavy rain will be possible due to the strength
of forcing, even if warm cloud depths quickly diminish as cold air
flows into the region. Precipitation amounts will likely be about a
quarter to half inch of liquid. The last few hundredths will be
snow, and quickly cooling behind the boundary will slow snow melt.
The latest River Forecast Center and the majority of MMEFS output
keeps rivers within bankfull with Otter Creek and the Ausable the
most likely to reach bankfull.

KEY MESSAGE 3: After warm weather in the mid 50s to mid 60s across the
region, temperatures will quickly fall behind the front. Anywhere
between 20-30 degree drops are expected, but may just miss the flash
freeze component by not quite getting to below freezing with the
drop. Steadily cooling temperatures will continue though, and
conditions will largely be below freezing by Tuesday morning. Some
snow on the backside of the front is expected, generally between 1-
2" in northern New York, and less than an 1" from the Greens
westwards. Depending on the level of drying from strong winds, there
could be some black ice or some slick roads due to snow on Tuesday
morning.

Additionally, lake effect snow is expected to make a return. The
warmth has opened the lakes for business again, and we`ll observe a
strip of lake effect snow as this cold air rushes in behind the
front. Overall, the band will likely be narrow, and it will
gradually shift eastwards as the axis of the upper trough ambles
east. Additionally, marginally CAPE of about 100 J/kg may allow for
some snow showers in and around the lake effect band as a
reinforcing cold front angles southeast. For St. Lawrence County,
lake effect snow will probably add about another 1-3" in far
southern areas.

KEY MESSAGE 4: Temperatures will rebound from the early week cooler
conditions on Wednesday and into the latter half of next week with
highs returning to seasonable levels in the upper 30s to low to mid
40s by the end of next week.

Precipitation chances will be hard to come by for most of next week,
with the best chances by late in the week, albeit no large system
appear likely in the long term. High pressure will build in for mid
week and give us a few generally dry couple of days, but shower
chances will slightly increase as a couple shortwaves traverse the
area under nearly zonal flow aloft. There`s still some
uncertainty with these as they do appear rather weak, but
ensembles have trended towards shower chances Thursday into
Friday, with perhaps a more organized weak system for the
weekend. Temperatures would support some mountain snow with any
shower chances this week, with more rain/snow in the valley with
boundary layer temperatures in the mid 30s to low 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 06Z Tuesday...A complex aviation forecast is set to begin in
the next few hours. Overall a strong frontal system will bring
strong winds, LLWS, heavy rain, wind shift, slight thunder chances
and even snow. High Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories continue for
multiple rounds of gusty winds today through tomorrow morning with
the strongest winds expected along the northern Adirondacks and
north-western facing slopes of the Greens. The main terminal
impacts will be derived from strong winds and LLWS. Gusty south
winds up to 30-40kts is expected this morning before gusts become
less prevailing early this afternoon. Rounds of multiple strong
gusts are more likely than prevailing strong winds, hence there may
be periods where winds are not matching the TAF at times. These
strong surface gusts are a result of a strong LLJ at 60- 75kts,
resulting in widespread LLWS, the strongest of which will be at SLK.
As a cold front moves through the area this evening, winds will
quickly switch to the west/southwest with continued strong gusts up
to 40kts. Aviators should expected widespread low to mid level
turbulence today across the area. Atlantic moisture is beginning to
surge north with RUT/SLK/MPV already seeing ceilings to MVFR levels.
MSS/BTV should also see MVFR cigs within the next hour or two. The
first round of precipitation will arrive between 11-14Z across the
area from south to north. These rain showers will generally be light
for most terminals, but brief reduction to 4-5SM visibilities cannot
be ruled out. Ceilings will also lower further at RUT/MPV to
1000-1500 ft agl, with perhaps brief IFR cigs to 900ft at MPV. These
low ceilings and enhanced moisture will lead to prolonged period of
MVFR visibilities due to mist at MPV/RUT throughout much of the day.
Temperatures are running a few degrees above the previous forecast
which should limit any freezing rain potential mentioned in previous
forecasts. The first batch of rain will exit by 14Z with a lull in
prevailing precipitation. By 20Z, a strong cold front will move from
west to east impacting all terminals as it progresses east. Brief
heavy rain with MVFR visibilities will be possible as the front
moves east. An isolated rumble of thunder or two will be possible
with the front, primarily at SLK/BTV/RUT, however, confidence
remains low enough to not include in the current TAF package.
Precipitation will quickly transition to sleet and snow behind the
front with brief IFR visibilities at MSS/SLK by the end of this TAF
period.

Outlook...

Tuesday: VFR. Windy with gusts to 35 kt. Slight chance SN.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SN, Slight
chance RA.
Thursday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance RA, Slight
chance SN.
Friday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Slight chance RA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A daily record high temperatures and calendar day precipitation
total are possible at KMSS (Massena, NY) on March 16th. The
present forecast of 67 would beat the previous record of 65 set
just last year. Consensus forecast for KMSS is about
0.50-0.75", which would beat 0.44" set in 1994.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Please contact us if you
observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational
forecast.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Wind Advisory until 11 AM EDT Tuesday for VTZ001>011-016>021.
NY...Wind Advisory until 11 AM EDT Tuesday for NYZ026-028-029-035-
     087.
     High Wind Warning until 11 AM EDT Tuesday for NYZ027-030-031-
     034.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Haynes
DISCUSSION...Danzig/Haynes
AVIATION...Danzig
CLIMATE...NWS BTV
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV