Brattleboro, Vermont 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

488
FXUS61 KALY 232037
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
337 PM EST Sat Nov 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Blustery conditions will continue through the remainder of the
weekend along with isolated to scattered rain showers, mixed
with snow at times in higher elevations. Another system will
bring mainly light rainfall Monday night through Tuesday
followed by lake-effect rain and snow showers Tuesday night
through Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A sub-975 hPa low pressure system is lifting northward across
Nova Scotia. Precipitation associated with this system has
decreased in coverage and retreated back eastward, though some
upslope rain showers will continue into this evening across
portions of the Taconics and into western New England. This has
also caused winds to pick up with observed gusts in the 25 to 40
mph range. An upper- level shortwave will cross the region
tonight which will result in an increased coverage of lake-
effect and upslope rain showers and high elevation snow showers,
especially early in the night. A more pronounced lake- effect
band will develop overnight as the wind flow favors a multi-lake
connection with moisture feeding in from lakes Superior, Huron
and Ontario and even Georgian Bay. With the strong winds aloft,
this band should be able to extend well inland reaching
portions of the western Mohawk Valley, Schoharie County and
Catskills. The pressure gradient will remain strong allowing for
gusty winds to continue throughout the night, on the order of
25 to 35 mph. Lows will fall back to the upper 20s to upper 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Gusty winds will continue in the wake of the upper-level
shortwave on Sunday as cold air flowing over the warmer waters
of the Great Lakes will continue to result in a band of lake-
effect rain and snow showers oriented toward the western Mohawk
Valley, Schoharie County and Catskills. With the arrival of
mid- level dry air, this band should be rather shallow in
height, so any snow showers that do occur should be light to
occasionally moderate in intensity. Marginal temperatures should
limit any accumulations to a coating to an inch or so where the
band is more persistent. It is possible some fragments of this
band make it as far east as the mid-Hudson Valley and even
Litchfield Hills but may only bring a sprinkle at best to these
areas. Otherwise, mainly dry weather is expected with highs in
the mid-30s to upper 40s. The arrival of high pressure and weak
upper-level ridging will bring an end to lake-effect
precipitation Sunday night as clouds continue to clear. Wind
will also subside during the night. Lows will fall back to the
20s to around 30.

High pressure will bring a mostly sunny and dry start to the
week before the next low pressure system, tracking to our north
and west over the Great Lakes, brings another round of
widespread rainfall Monday night and Tuesday. Temperatures may
fall quickly Monday evening if enough clearing occurs before
slowly rising overnight into Tuesday. If precipitation arrives
before temperatures rise above freezing, a brief period of
freezing rain will be possible before changing over to rain.
This could be mostly favored across portions of the Adirondacks
and southern Greens. Lows Monday night will fall back to the
upper 20s to upper 30s with highs Tuesday in the 40s to mid-50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Low pressure and its associated cold front will depart the area
Tuesday night as the arrival of colder air and flow off the
Great Lakes results in some lingering lake-effect snow showers
into and through the day Wednesday, mainly for the Adirondacks.
Otherwise, a period of drier weather returns with highs right
around seasonable levels (30s and 40s). There remains a signal
for another system to reach our area later in the week during
the Thanksgiving holiday, but confidence on track and
precipitation types and amounts remains low. While ensemble
mean forecasts continue to depict a low track to our south over
the mid- Atlantic (which would favor snow or a rain snow mix
across portions of the region pending thermal profiles),
members also show another cluster of a low track to our north
and west over the lower Great Lakes. This could result in snow,
rain and even some mixed precipitation. It is still possible the
system could just bypass us to the south. Will continue to
monitor trends as the event gets closer. For now, will only
include chance PoPs and rain and snow for the forecast.
Regardless of the track, a period of colder weather looks to
arrive in its wake to close the week and open next weekend along
with some lake-effect snow downwind of the lakes.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Clouds have given way to partial sunshine this afternoon which
has allowed winds to become gusty. West to northwest winds are
becoming sustained 10 to 20kts and gusts range 25 to 35kts.
Otherwise, VFR ceilings at GFL, ALB and POU with MVFR at PSF due
to continued upslope flow.

Upslope flow continues at PSF through tonight with potential for
some lake effect rain showers to extend inland to give PSF a
few light showers tonight. However, vis likely remains VFR.
Ceilings, on the other hand, likely degrade and become IFR by 03
UTC or so and remain as such through 10 UTC or so. ALB also
looks to degrade to MVFR as lake effect moisture and clouds
extend into the Capital District. A light shower is possible but
given low impacts, did not include in this TAF update. GFL and
POU likely remain VFR.

Upslope flow continues Sunday morning through the end of the
TAF period at PSF so MVFR ceilings persist. ALB degrades back
down to MVFR as well Sunday morning but should improve back to
VFR shortly before the end of the TAF. GFL and POU remain VFR.
Otherwise, winds quickly become gusty by mid to late morning
with sustained winds 10-15kts and gusts up to 25-30kts,
strongest at ALB and PSF. Strong winds continue past 18 UTC/Sun.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely RA.
Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite RA.
Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHRA...SHSN.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thanksgiving Day: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA...SN.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Rathbun
NEAR TERM...Rathbun
SHORT TERM...Rathbun
LONG TERM...Rathbun
AVIATION...Speciale