Provo, Utah 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

640
FXUS65 KSLC 102209
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
309 PM MST Sun Nov 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure and gradually warming temperatures will
continue into Monday. A quick hitting cold system will bring the
threat of accumulating snow to the northern mountains Tuesday.
Another system may impact the area by next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z/5AM Tuesday)...Afternoon satellite and
H5 analysis indicate a baggy trough off the Cali coast
splitting/shearing rapidly, with a much deeper trough over the
Gulf of AK and encroaching the PacNW. Mid level ridging remains in
place locally, though the axis is beginning to phase downstream
as the northern remnants of the shearing trough lift NE within
southwesterly flow aloft.

In the short term, not much to note outside of the forecast area
remaining under the influence of the ridge in place for another
24+ hours. Dry and stable conditions will remain, while temps will
further boost in nature Monday trending some 5-10 degrees above
seasonal norms. Sensible weather changes will begin to take form
Monday night however, this as the trough currently over the Gulf
of AK begins to work into the northern Great Basin Region.
Northern valley showers and light mountain snow looks to develop
shortly before dawn Tuesday, but the main influence of the
progressive trough will arrive after sun up Tuesday.

.LONG TERM (After 12Z/5AM Tuesday)...A loosely defined baroclinic
zone will be pushing into northwestern Utah early in the morning
hours on Tuesday which will help to focus an area of enhanced
precipitation intensity. This enhanced precip region is expected to
track across the forecast area through the day on Tuesday, passing
through the Wasatch Front/ I-15 corridor during the mid-morning
through early afternoon hours. Precipitation looks to be mainly be
confined to areas north of the Beaver/ Iron County line, with the
greatest amounts anticipated to fall from Provo through Logan. Given
the warm antecedent temperatures, the dominant precipitation type is
expected to be rain, however, a transition to snow may be seen in
valleys where higher precipitation intensities (PI) force a lowering
of snow levels as the front progresses through. Even then, any
impacts would be limited to the highest elevation valleys (i.e. Park
City area) where upwards of 3 inches of snowfall could be seen. For
the mountains, expect a period of medium to high PI through the
frontal passage (especially for the Salt Lake area mountains) with
continuing upslope snowfall in the wake of the front. Again, given
warm antecedent temperatures, impacts to mountain transportation
routes will be limited to elevations mainly above 6,000ft MSL. When
all is said and done, mountains are likely to end up with 2-6 inches
of snowfall with locally up to 8-10 in the upper Cottonwoods.

A period of ridging builds quickly in the wake of the trough
associated with the expected round of rain/ snow, bringing
stabilizing conditions across the region. The axis of this ridge
does translate downstream of the area rather quickly (end of the day
Wednesday) which will help open the door to potential shortwave
disturbances ejecting from an upstream trough expected to develop
offshore of the PacNW. Not expecting much in the way of impactful
weather from any potential shortwaves, but perhaps a light rain
shower or two near the UT/ID border if we end up with a grazing
shortwave late Wednesday through mid-day Thursday. The broad
southwest winds resulting from the large scale synoptic pattern
will, however, favor increasing temperatures across the region with
highs returning to near, to slightly above, normal by Thursday/
Friday.

Heading into the weekend, focus then turns toward our next potential
trough. Models maintain good agreement of introducing a cold trough
into the western U.S. through the weekend, however, the details of
how this trough evolves are somewhat uncertain at this time. General
consensus of the ensemble means from the EPS and GEFS show the 500mb
low dropping into the Southwest (roughly NV/CA/AZ triple point)
which may allow for much more significant cooling across the
southern portion of the area as opposed to the north. Precipitation
should be rather widespread from an event like this, but will need
to watch model trends to key in on the specific locations.
Anticipate snow level trends will be fairly similar to the first
storm as warm antecedent temperatures favor valley rain and snow
above ~6,000ft MSL.

&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...Upper level moisture will result in some high
clouds, but VFR conditions persist. Winds shift back SSE around 02Z
to 04Z Monday, increasing in magnitude and becoming gusty thereafter
around 16Z to 18Z. Through the day Monday, anticipate gusts in the
25 to 30 kt range.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Weather remains fairly quiet
through the TAF period as upper level moisture only yields some high
level clouds. VFR conditions expected to prevail, with winds
following a fairly typical diurnal pattern through Monday morning.
Ahead of an approaching system, most terminals will see an enhanced
south to southwesterly component to winds during the day Monday.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

Merrill/Webber/Warthen

For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity