Herriman, Utah 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

373
FXUS65 KSLC 082149
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
349 PM MDT Tue Oct 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Mid level moisture will bring a few showers capable of
gusty microburst winds this afternoon/evening. Otherwise
unseasonably warm and dry conditions will continue through the
remainder of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z/6AM Thursday)...Scattered shallow
convection has developed across portions of the area this
afternoon, mainly focused across higher terrain and over the West
Desert. Some virga is seen from a quick look outside the office,
indicative of dry low levels below cloud base. With these showers,
gusts to 30-40 mph are likely, though isolated gusts in excess of
50 mph are also possible (15% chance), particularly across the
southern two-thirds of Utah. Showers are likely to decrease in
coverage after sunset, though a few showers may linger as late as
midnight in parts of southern Utah.

High pressure will then rebound as the weak disturbance producing
these showers continues eastward. Warm and dry conditions will
return for Wednesday, with temperatures hovering around 10 to 15
degrees above normal. While this will make for a nice day for
most, areas near the Yellow Lake Fire may see wildfire smoke once
again. These areas include the western Uinta Basin and Wasatch
Back, which have seen this smoke in recent days.

.LONG TERM (After 12Z/6AM Thursday)...On Thursday a ridge will
remain in close enough proximity to be the dominant synoptic weather
feature locally, though a weak decaying frontal boundary will be
advancing southeastward through Idaho. While the frontal boundary
isn`t expected to push into northern Utah or southwest Wyoming,
upper level moisture associated with the parent trough will likely
yield increased cloud cover across the forecast region accordingly.
Despite the enhanced cloud cover, H7 temperatures associated with
the ridge will remain in the 9C to 12C range, promoting anomalous
warmth at the surface and daytime highs around 10F to 20F above
climatological normal. Similar conditions look likely on Friday.

Moving into the weekend the pattern will undergo a fairly minor
change in terms of sensible weather. The ridge will be centered near
to a bit south of the Four Corners area, and a weak impulse will
rotate around the western periphery and lift through Utah, helping
to add a bit of mid/upper level moisture to the environment. This
will happen coincident with a weak cutoff trough approaching the
area Saturday into Sunday. Given the nature of cutoff lows, there`s
a bit of uncertainty on exact timing/strength, but in general the
combination of these two features will introduce low end (~10-20%)
diurnal precipitation chances, primarily focused/initiated over
higher terrain. Otherwise, with the ridge a bit more flattened and
displaced in comparison the prior couple of days, will see
temperatures dip ever so slightly. That said, afternoon highs still
will remain roughly 7F to 15F above climatological normal.

For early next week, uncertainty further increases due to model
differences in handling the evolution of the cutoff low, and whether
it sits and decays over the region for a bit, retrogrades, or sees a
quicker absorption back into the mean flow. Even in a situation
where it decays closer overhead, few scenarios provide more marked
moisture advection, so what limited moisture is available still only
yields low end precipitation chances. Given a fairly even split
amongst ensemble members in how things play out, will once again
have to wait and see how things ultimately trend. In general,
maintained NBM forecast which keeps mild temperatures and
precipitation chances below 10% or so.

&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...Light northwest winds will transition to
southeast around 03Z with clouds diminishing through the evening.
Mostly clear conditions will continue, with a transition to
northwest winds around 19Z.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Scattered showers capable of
gusty, erratic outflow winds will diminish from 00-03Z. Clouds will
diminish through the evening as showers taper off. MVFR conditions
are likely with enhanced wildfire smoke concentrations at KHCR and
other nearby locations from roughly 03-18Z. Mostly clear conditions
are likely throughout southwest Wyoming and Utah through the day
with relatively light winds.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A weak disturbance moving through the area today
will bring scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms this
afternoon and early evening, diminishing after roughly 2100. Gusty
and erratic outflow winds near 30-40 mph are possible, though an
isolated gust in excess of 50 mph isn`t out of the question (15%
chance). High pressure then returns heading into Wednesday with
slightly warmer and drier conditions, particularly looking at
maximum RH. Overnight recoveries tonight across most valleys will
be marginal to good, though valleys across the southern two-
thirds of Utah will trend downwards to poor by early Thursday
morning. An unseasonably warm, dry air mass will then likely stick
around, with the next chance for precipitation not expected until
maybe Sunday.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

Cunningham/Warthen/Wilson

For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity