San Antonio, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

257
FXUS64 KEWX 160550
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1250 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong northerly post-frontal winds persist overnight with much
  cooler air filtering into the region.

- Critical fire weather conditions persist through Monday as winds
  gradually subside during the day.

- A light freeze will be forecast Tuesday morning across the Hill
  Country and portions of the I-35 Corridor and Coastal Plains.

- A rain free forecast through next week with a warming trend for
  midweek into the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

The strong post-frontal north winds persist through the overnight
with peak winds between 20 to 35 mph sustained and isolated gusts
around 45 to 55 mph. Highest gusts could occur across the higher
elevations across the Southern Edwards Plateau to near highway 90
and for the Hill Country. Peak winds should decline near and
beyond 5 AM this morning. This is when the Wind Advisory is on
target to end. These north winds will also continue to usher in
much cooler air during the night with morning lows falling into
the mid 30s to mid 40s across the region. Wind chills could fall
as low as the mid 20s to mid 30s as well. Despite the arriving
cold air, the strong winds combined with poor moisture recovery
will prolong concerns for critical fire weather conditions through
the overnight.

The north winds will continue to gradually subside through the day
today but remain breezy with gusts in the 25 to 35 mph range into
early afternoon. Speeds then slack off even more during the late
afternoon into early evening before becoming light after dark with
surface high pressure building over the state. A much cooler day
will be expected with afternoon highs in the 50s to low 60s. An
increase in high level clouds occurs during the afternoon into the
evening from a minor disturbance rounding the base of the large
trough to our east. These clouds should decrease into and through
the overnight. With the light winds and decreasing cloud cover,
enough radiational cooling is to occur to result in a colder night
in terms of temperature for most locations. Tuesday morning will
likely see a light freeze across the Hill Country and for portions
of the I-35 corridor and Coastal Plains. Elsewhere, temperatures
bottom out in the mid 30s to low 40s. Tuesday trends sunny with
warmer temperatures as the winds shift and increase from the south
as the surface high slides to the east. The afternoon highs will
return to the 60s to low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Anomalously strong upper level ridging develops across the western
CONUS into midweek. The ridge will expand in size through late in
the week into the weekend with its periphery nudging east across
western portions of Texas. This along with a continued light to
moderate southerly flow will allow for a warming trend for the
remainder of the forecast period. Highs Friday through the weekend
again climb to where the daily records could be threatened across
the region. Despite the southerly flow, moisture return looks to
remain rather modest, with dew points primarily only reaching into
the 50s. This will keep skies mostly clear through the long term
period with no rain expected.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Only scattered high clouds are left in the next 24-30 hours. Winds
remain the primary concern with a few gusts over 40 knots possible
in the next few hours. Strong gusts to 35 knots will remain
possible after daybreak with the mid morning sun possibly helping
with the gust potential. By 18Z, the model trends significantly
lower for the afternoon gusts, but we usually see the gusts
overachieve while the mixing is maximized. Thus will not revert
back to a sustained wind for the I-35 sites until around 00Z
Tuesday. Light winds and mostly clear skies are expected over all
sites by 03Z Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Critical fire weather conditions persist through Monday. The strong
post-frontal northerly winds are to peak overnight as speeds have
already been observed with sustained values in the 20 to 35 mph
range with gusts above 50 mph for several locations. These winds
continue to advect cooler temperatures into the region towards
morning. Despite these falling temperatures, the moisture recovery
overnight into the morning is very poor with the highest humidity
only in the 30 to 35 percent range. Winds will start to slowly
weaken as soon as daybreak, with a continued gradual decrease
throughout the day. However, wind speeds remain breezy enough with
the minimum humidity levels dropping back as low as the 10 to 20
percent range during the afternoon for continued critical fire
weather conditions. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect through
8 PM.

The northerly winds subside to light speeds by or near sunset this
evening across the entire region. Otherwise, conditions primarily
remain on the dry end through the rest of the week but do expect
returning southerly winds starting Tuesday. Humidity levels during
each afternoon from midweek into the weekend will fall mainly of
around the 15 to 30 percent range. This is as temperatures warm
through the week, where highs could near records again by the
weekend. Enough wind could develop at times to for the mention of
elevated fire weather conditions. Overnight moisture recovery is
expected to improve later in the week with the southerly flow.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Record Low Temperatures

                   March 17(Tue)
Austin Bergstrom   30 (2005)
Austin Camp Mabry  30 (1913)
San Antonio Intl   32 (1947)
Del Rio            33 (1969)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              34  67  47  79 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  30  67  42  79 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     34  66  43  78 /   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            31  65  44  77 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           40  71  48  81 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        31  67  45  78 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             33  68  41  79 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        33  67  41  79 /   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   32  66  43  78 /   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       36  66  46  78 /   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           37  68  45  79 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ171>173-
183>194-202>209-217>225-228.

Wind Advisory until 5 AM CDT early this morning for TXZ171>173-
183>194-202>209-217>225-228.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...62
LONG TERM....62
AVIATION...18