Plano, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

233
FXUS64 KFWD 020820
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
320 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

...New Long Term...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered strong to potentially severe thunderstorms will
  develop along and north of the I-20 corridor and shift east this
  morning into early afternoon.

- There will be multiple, potentially numerous, rounds of strong
  to severe thunderstorms tonight through Saturday.

- Flooding will be of increasing concern heading into this
  upcoming weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1253 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025/
/Through Thursday Afternoon/

The radarscope will remain void of any echoes across North and
Central Texas through much of the overnight due to a strong
capping inversion that has kept convection from developing since
earlier this evening. As a shortwave trough rotates over the
Oklahoma Panhandle/SW Kansas, a cold front extending southwestward
from a surface low nearing the Missouri River Valley will help
initiate a broken line of thunderstorms by 3-4AM Wednesday morning
across northwest Texas. Latest suite of high-res guidance suggests
thunderstorms may develop near the I-35 corridor and the DFW
Metroplex in the ~6-7AM timeframe with the actual front not
approaching the Metro until a couple hours later. Wind fields
would support a few clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms
initially posing a large hail risk but then growing upscale into
more linear structures capable of producing localized wind gusts
of 50-65 mph. Some residual capping could inhibit the overall
severe weather potential until storms push into East Texas later
Wednesday morning into Wednesday afternoon. Locations south of the
I-20 corridor will likely miss out on this round of storms.

The bulk of shower and thunderstorm activity will push east of our
forecast area by early Wednesday afternoon as the front begins to
stall and becomes nearly quasi-stationary from a Paris, TX to
Temple, TX line early Wednesday evening. There will likely be a
several-hour lull in precipitation Wednesday afternoon into
Wednesday evening over North Texas until increasing low-level
southerly flow effectively lifts this boundary toward the Red
River as a warm front after sunset. Lift in the vicinity of this
front and persistent shortwave impulses in the southwesterly flow
aloft will likely produce multiple rounds of elevated
thunderstorms generally north of the I-20 corridor into southern
Oklahoma after midnight Wednesday night through Thursday morning.
1500-2500 J/kg and 70-80 kts of effective bulk shear will promote
primarily a large to very large hail risk with perhaps a localized
damaging wind threat. There is potential for thunderstorms to
become surface-based after sunrise Thursday morning along the Red
River as the warm front slowly lifts northward, primarily near
Grayson, Fannin, and Lamar Counties. If this occurs, all severe
weather hazards would be possible for several hours Thursday
morning into early Thursday afternoon generally north and
northeast of the Metroplex. The aforementioned frontal boundary
will meander over our region for several days providing a focus
for multiple rounds of thunderstorms through Saturday and
increasing the heavy rain and flooding threat over the latter
portions of the week.

Langfeld

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Thursday Night Onward/

A deep upper trough over the Desert Southwest will develop a
closed low as it begins to advance east Thursday night and Friday.
Eastern portions of North and Central Texas may be dealing with
some residual showers and storms Thursday evening, but the focus
will shift north and west as a lead shortwave in the strong
southwest flow aloft helps generate another round of deep
convection Thursday night. Storms will initiate along and
northwest of a northeast-southwest oriented surface front
stretching from Central Oklahoma to the Big Country. This will
place the highest storm chances across the northwest quadrant of
the CWA. With exceptional amounts of effective bulk shear and
steep mid level lapse rates in place, elevated storms north of
the front will pose a large hail threat overnight. Any storm which
may ride the surface front will be capable of all modes of severe
weather.

In fact convection will tend to become more surface based late
morning into Friday afternoon with surface destabilization. These
storms (some severe) will shift east across the I-35 corridor
around midday Friday, then into areas east of I-35 Friday
afternoon. Large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes will
all be possible through late Friday afternoon before the lead wave
accelerates off to the northeast.

Any lull in showers and storms will be brief, as the
aforementioned closed low encroaches from the west and a fresh
round of convection fires near and northwest the surface front
(which will have been forced east into Central and East Texas by
this point). Elevated, hail-producing supercells should be the
primary convective mode late Friday evening into the overnight
hours. All modes of severe weather, however will again be possible
near and southeast of the front. Not everyone will see severe
weather, but just about any location across the CWA will see equal
chance of experiencing a severe storm Friday night. In addition,
multiple rounds of precipitation leading up to Friday night will
make soils more flood prone, increasing the flash flood threat
with time. It`s possible that a Flood Watch will be issued at
some point, but a bit too soon at this juncture to nail down the
most likely areas.

Precipitation will finally exit to the east Saturday and Saturday
night as the main trough sweeps east through the Plains and the
surface boundary surges southeast as a cold front. A much cooler
and drier airmass will enter Saturday night and Sunday behind the
front. A pattern reversal will transpire Sunday and Monday as the
upper trough settles over the eastern CONUS and upper ridging
builds in from the west. This pattern shift will bring dry and
seasonable weather to the area early to mid next week.

30

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1253 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025/
/06Z TAFs/

MVFR cigs will gradually fill in over North and Central Texas the
next 1-2 hours with potentially a brief period of IFR after 09Z
(less than 20% chance). MVFR cigs will lift and clear after 16Z
with the passage of a weak cold front. Expect MVFR/IFR cigs to
return to the forecast once again just beyond this TAF period.

Gusty south winds will prevail through the overnight gradually
lightening as we head into the early morning hours Wednesday.
Winds will shift out of the southwest by 14Z ahead of FROPA which
is expected to occur at D10 at ~16Z and KACT a couple hours later.
This frontal passage will shift winds out of the west-northwest at
10-15 kts. This could cause a few-hour period of some minor
crosswind concerns. Winds will diminish into the evening becoming
variable at times before shifting out of the east Wednesday night.

Scattered thunderstorms will likely develop in and around the DFW
Metroplex early Wednesday morning. Have kept a several hour period
of VCTS to cover possible vicinity storms just ahead and along
the cold front, but now have added an 11Z-13Z TEMPO group for TSRA
impacts over the D10 terminals. HREF thunderstorm probabilities
are in the 60-70% range for this timeframe within the metroplex.
Slight adjustments to this timing may be needed as we wait for
thunderstorms to develop across northwest Texas in the next 3-4
hours.

Langfeld

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is possible across portions of North Texas over
the next couple of days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    85  64  75  64  77 /  30  60  60  80  90
Waco                85  69  83  68  84 /  30  20  20  50  80
Paris               80  62  74  63  77 /  70  70  70  90 100
Denton              83  57  71  58  74 /  30  60  60  80  90
McKinney            82  62  74  63  76 /  50  70  70  80 100
Dallas              86  64  77  63  79 /  40  60  60  80 100
Terrell             83  67  79  66  81 /  60  50  50  70  90
Corsicana           84  70  84  71  84 /  40  30  40  60  80
Temple              87  69  86  69  86 /  20  10  10  40  70
Mineral Wells       85  58  74  58  74 /  10  60  50  80  90

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$