McKinney, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

658
FXUS64 KFWD 142328
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
528 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and pleasant weather is expected for the rest of the week.

- A strong weather system early next week will bring our next
  chance of showers and thunderstorms late Sunday through Monday.

- Much cooler conditions are expected the latter half of next
  week, following Monday`s cold front and a second cold front
  midweek.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Friday Evening/

Ridging aloft and at the surface will slide east from the Plains
to the Mississippi Valley over the next 24 to 36 hours, providing
generally nice weather across North and Central Texas. Calm winds
will become light southeast this evening as the surface ridge
moves east of the forecast area. Light winds, clear skies and dry
air will provide good radiative cooling conditions tonight.
Dewpoints have been trending lower than the National Blended
Model`s forecast, which typically will create a larger diurnal
variation than advertised by the NBM. Will hence lean to the
cooler side of guidance for tonight`s lows, and warmer side for
Friday`s highs. Southeast winds will increase to 10-15MPH Friday
evening, eventually drawing low level moisture northward into the
region. The resulting uptick in dewpoints will keep Friday night
lows around 10 degrees warmer than tonight.

30

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 246 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024/
/Friday Night Onward/

By Saturday, the aforementioned upper ridge will be shunted to
our east in response to a digging upper level trough over the
western CONUS. Southerly winds will promote the advection of warm
and moist air across the region over the day, allowing
temperatures to warm into the 70s during the afternoon. This
warming will become more prevalent overnight into Sunday morning,
where increased cloud cover will aid in keeping overnight lows in
the mid 50s to low 60s.

Over the latter half of the week, the southern portion of the
upper level trough will amplify into a closed low over the Desert
Southwest and Mexico. The upper low will transit east on Sunday,
placing North and Central Texas just downstream of a sharpening
Pacific front/dryline. Showers will increase in coverage over the
course of the day as lift continues to overspread the region, with
highest coverage across our western counties. The upper low will
quickly eject towards the northeast into Oklahoma overnight into
Monday, inducing surface cyclogenesis in the Texas Panhandle as it
does. The increasing forcing for ascent from the system will
promote more widespread coverage of showers alongside scattered
storms during this time. Have now included a chance/slight chance
of thunderstorms during this time as thunder probabilities have
increased up to around 20-40% with current guidance as compared to
last night. Any showers and storms will have the potential to
produce heavy rain, as PWATs > 1.5" are expected across the region
ahead of the surface front. Most likely rainfall totals between
Sunday and Tuesday range from 1-1.5" across North Texas to
0.50-1" in Central Texas. Highest rainfall amounts are expected
across areas near/north of the I-20 corridor, where there is also
a 10% chance of up to 3.5-4" of total rainfall accumulation.

As of this forecast issuance, the overall severe threat for
Sunday night into Monday is quite uncertain. Current model
forecast soundings show more than abundant deep shear across the
region, particularly west of I-35. Additionally, mid-level lapse
rates across the region are near or in excess of the 6.5 degC/km,
which should be sufficient to support thunder. Instability
continues to be lacking across the suite of mid- and long-range
model solutions, with most having < 500 J/kg of MUCAPE. All that
to say, the potential for strong to severe storms will be most
contingent on just how much instability the storms have to play
with. Nonetheless, make sure to keep updated on the forecast, and
we`ll continue to keep an eye on future guidance to assess any
increase in severe potential as we go into the next few days.

Showers and storms will move along the Pacific front as we head
through Monday morning, with breezy westerly winds expected in the
wake of the dryline/front. Rain chances will eventually come to
an end late Monday, leaving behind clearing skies. The system`s
true cold front will lag behind just a bit, eventually blowing
through the region on Tuesday as a shortwave disturbance rounds
the base of the upper longwave trough. Strong CAA is expected
behind the front, bringing much cooler temperatures to North and
Central Texas over midweek. Expect Wednesday morning lows in the
upper 30s to mid 40s, and afternoon highs in the mid 50s to low
60s.

The cooler-than-normal conditions are progged to stick around
through the end of this next week, as North and Central Texas
remain located on the western periphery of a stout upper level low
over the eastern CONUS. This location will keep north to
northwesterly winds from the surface to mid-levels of the
atmosphere, promoting continued cold air advection across the
region. Morning lows in the mid 30s to 40s and highs in the 50s
and 60s are expected through Friday, though exact temperatures are
still uncertain this far out. Temperatures continue to stay above
freezing over the latter half of next week, though our rural
areas have between a 20-40% chance of freezing/sub- freezing
temperatures Thursday and Friday mornings, with closer to a 10-20%
chance in more urban areas.

Prater

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

Light southeast winds tonight will only increase to around 10 kt
Friday afternoon. Otherwise, ridging aloft and at the surface will
provide VFR area-wide through Friday evening.

30

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    45  72  51  72  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                39  74  47  75  61 /   0   0   0   0   5
Paris               39  70  44  71  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              37  72  47  72  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            38  71  46  72  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              45  72  50  74  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             39  72  46  73  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           42  73  48  74  62 /   0   0   0   0   5
Temple              39  75  48  77  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       38  74  47  74  57 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$