McKinney, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

727
FXUS64 KFWD 221202
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
602 AM CST Sun Dec 22 2024

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A steady warming trend is expected through Monday. Mild
  temperatures are expected throughout the week.

- Many areas will see measurable rain on Tuesday (Christmas Eve),
  with the best rain chances near and east of the I-35 corridor.

- Wednesday (Christmas Day) will be rain-free, but storm chances return
  on Thursday and will linger through the end of the week.

- There will be a low threat for isolated strong to severe storms
  in Central Texas on Tuesday (Christmas Eve). A severe weather
  threat may materialize again on Thursday, but confidence is low
  at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
Early morning satellite imagery shows a few different decks of low
clouds expanding across the state over the past several hours: (1)
to our southwest across the Hill Country and (2) from Central
Texas into southeast Oklahoma. The lower levels have been slow to
moisten...especially east of I-35...amid ESE-SE surface winds as
the sprawling influence of the eastern CONUS surface high lingers
in the vicinity. Moisture advection has mostly been confined to
the 900-800mb layer resulting in the thin layer of clouds
currently observed and the warmer-than-forecast overnight
temperatures, particularly across Central Texas. Adjustments have
been made to incorporate present observations, particularly
temperature trends and cloud coverage. Otherwise, the forecast
trends discussed below remain on track.

12

Previous Discussion:
/Today and Tonight/

As of 12 AM CST, an upper-level trough axis was in place over the
eastern CONUS with broad ridging over the Rockies leaving North
and Central Texas beneath northwest flow aloft. Winds have shifted
back to the south on the backside of a surface high that extends
from Ontario to the Gulf Coast. With light southeasterly winds in
place, modest warm air and moisture advection tonight will keep
temperatures about 5 to 10 degrees warmer (mid/upper 30s) than
Saturday morning, particularly east of I-35. The coldest
temperatures are expected in northeast Texas (near or below 32 F)
which remains under the peripheral influence of the surface high
pressure. Daytime temperatures struggled to reach the 50s here so
even a few hours of moderate radiational cooling should send
temperatures tumbling into the lower 30s.

By daybreak a shortwave trough developing in northern
Montana/southern Alberta will begin diving southeast into the
Northern Plains, flattening the nearby ridge and pushing
downstream troughing further east. The net result is the northwest
flow aloft will transition to a more zonal pattern. The
associated lee surface low, combined with the surface high in the
Lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley, will lead to a steepening surface
pressure gradient and breezy southerly winds across the state
today. Isentropic ascent will increase as a result yielding dense
stratus tonight and warmer overnight lows. Highs today will range
from the mid 50s in the northeast to the mid 60s across western
North and Central Texas (W of I-35). Temperatures Sunday night
into Monday morning will be fairly mild for mid to late December
with lows in the mid 40s to lower 50s.

12

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 332 AM CST Sun Dec 22 2024/
/Monday Onward/

A mid-level trough will be positioned over the Intermountain West
early Monday and will move east into the Plains by Monday evening.
As this occurs, a surface low will eject from the eastern flank of
the Rockies into the Southern Plains. Ahead of this system,
strengthening southerly flow will continue to advect Gulf
moisture into the region throughout the day Monday, with modest
warm air advection resulting in the development of patchy drizzle
beginning Monday afternoon and continuing into Monday night.

Widespread showers and scattered storms are expected to develop
near and ahead of the surface low`s attendant cold front as it
nears the area late Monday night into Tuesday morning (Christmas
Eve). Showers and storms will move east through the area
throughout the day with the passage of the front. Many locations
will see measurable rainfall, especially east of the I-35 corridor
where the highest coverage of showers and storms is expected.
There will be a low threat for isolated strong to severe storms
across Central Texas during the afternoon as instability reaches
its diurnal maximum, with hail and damaging wind gusts expected to
be the primary threats. Any strong or severe storms would be
quite isolated, but ensure you keep an eye on the weather if
traveling around the region.

Rain chances will end from west to east late Tuesday/Tuesday
night, just in time for Santa to make his rounds. The effect of
Tuesday`s cold front will be most noticeable Christmas morning, as
low temperatures will be in the mid 40s to low 50s. Afternoon
temperatures will only be a few degrees cooler for some locations
Christmas afternoon, with highs in the 60s to low 70s.

While Christmas Day will be rain-free, another system will arrive
Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing additional chances for
showers and storms. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop across the region as an upper low digs into the Southern
Plains and a Pacific front sweeps through the area. This system
has the potential to be more favorable for severe weather, but
there remains some uncertainty in how much moisture return will be
achieved prior to its arrival. It does bear watching throughout
the week, as there will likely be at least a low severe weather
threat if moisture return is sufficient. However, these specific
details will come more into focus over the next few days.

Mild temperatures will continue through the end of the week, with
daily afternoon highs in the 60s to low 70s and morning lows
mostly in the 40s to mid 50s. Low rain chances may linger late in
the week through early next weekend.

Barnes

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12Z TAFs/
VFR conditions prevail with persistent southeasterly/southerly
surface winds transporting moisture into the region. While skies
are clear over the North Texas terminals, VFR ceilings (around
4000-6000 ft AGL) prevail over Waco and northeastward towards the
ArkLaTex as southwesterly winds ~5000 ft AGL maintain saturation
in this layer. The lower levels will eventually begin to saturate
by the afternoon and evening as winds near the surface take on
more of a southerly component and Gulf moisture is transported
onshore. Ceilings are expected to lower from low end VFR to MVFR
tonight and into early Monday morning.

12

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    61  51  66  57  65 /   0   0  10  40  60
Waco                63  51  69  59  70 /   0   0  10  20  60
Paris               55  43  61  52  62 /   0   0  10  60  80
Denton              62  49  66  54  65 /   0   0  10  40  50
McKinney            59  48  65  55  65 /   0   0  10  50  60
Dallas              62  51  66  57  67 /   0   0  10  40  60
Terrell             59  47  67  56  65 /   0   0  10  40  80
Corsicana           62  49  70  59  68 /   0   0  10  30  70
Temple              66  51  73  58  70 /   0   0  10  10  60
Mineral Wells       67  51  71  52  66 /   0   0   0  20  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$