Lubbock, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

685
FXUS64 KLUB 240538
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1138 PM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1135 PM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

 - Areas of dense fog possible across the south-central South
   Plains Thursday morning.

 - Unseasonably warm temperatures each afternoon, with record
   breaking heat possible Friday and Saturday.

 - Wetter and cooler conditions possible Sunday as a strong cold
   front moves through.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1135 PM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

Somewhat "active" weather will start off Christmas Eve, with areas
of dense fog possible across portions of the South Plains early
Wednesday morning before diminishing around mid-morning. A Dense Fog
Advisory is in effect from 3AM CST until 10AM CST for portions of
the southern and central South Plains. Although not expected to be
as dense, areas of patchy fog will be possible across the northern
South PLains and southeastern Rolling Plains as well. Thereafter,
benign weather is expected for Christmas Eve, which will be perfect
for Santa and the elves as they prepare for their trip across West
Texas Wednesday night to deliver presents to all the good boys and
girls. Despite thickness and heights decreasing ever so slightly
this afternoon, afternoon highs will still remain unseasonably warm
as the FA remains positioned beneath a record setting 590 dam upper
level ridge. Highs will range from the mid 70s to lower 80s across
the region, which will seem mild compared to the record breaking
heat the last two days. High based clouds increasing through the
afternoon should help limit record breaking temperature potential
with the current record of 81 degrees at KLBB set back in 2021 not
expected to be reached with a forecasted high of 77 degrees. With a
likewise scenario at KCDS with a forecasted high of 79 degrees,
several degrees away from the current record of 87 degrees set back
in 1955. The quiet conditions will continue overnight, with lows
dipping into the mid 40s and 50s. Models are hinting at another
round of patchy fog development overnight given the increase in
moisture, with dewpoint depressions of 5 degrees or less. There
remains a bit of uncertainty regarding the overall coverage of fog
development, so will hold off on any weather grid mention at this
time.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1135 PM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

Warm and quiet conditions will remain the theme through the
remainder of the work week with Christmas Day looking to be
potentially the warmest day of the week. The record breaking upper
level ridge axis will begin to shift eastward Christmas Day as an H5
shortwave trough digs into the PacNW. Meanwhile at the surface, a
lee cyclone will develop across southeastern CO and dive southward
into portions of the northern Texas Panhandle. This will in turn
tighten the pressure gradient across the region, allowing for west-
southwest winds to become breezy around 15 to 20 mph, gusting to 30
mph. Despite heights and thickness decreasing slightly with the
departing of the ridge axis, these warm downsloping winds combined
with the westerly flow aloft, will aid in temperatures well above
normal. In fact, 850mb temperatures around 20C suggest highs will
peak in the upper 70s to upper 80s, with warmest temperatures off
the Caprock. Given this, record breaking heat is likely with current
Christmas Day records at KLBB (76 degrees in 1955) and KCDS (77
degrees in 1971) looking to be smashed with forecasted highs of 83
degrees at KLBB and 85 degrees at KCDS. Although still unseasonably
warm, temperatures will cool a few degrees Friday and Saturday as
the upper ridge shifts east into the SE CONUS. In response to the
shortwave trough over the PacNW diving into portions of SOCAL
Saturday. Meanwhile to our north, an amplified trough and associated
low will continue to translate through the Canadian provinces
through the weekend. Zonal flow will then begin to back out of the
southwest as the shortwave trough dives southward, which should
begin to allow for the transport of subtropical moisture into the
Panhandle region via the H5 jet streak. This should begin a much
needed, or should I say wanted, upper level pattern change that will
favor the start of at least cooler, and potentially wetter conditions
across the region.

By late Saturday, the upper level trough and associated low over the
Canadian/US border will translate into the Great Lakes region
through Sunday morning. The surface low over the Central Plains will
in turn shift east, allowing for the surface high to surge southward
as cold front travels into the Texas Panhandle by Sunday morning.
Similar to the previous forecast, models continue to hint at a
stronger front, with highs tapping out in the 50s from much of the
area Sunday. There is a chance depending on the timing of the front,
especially if it maintains a stronger feature, of highs being even
cooler if we see an earlier arrival Sunday morning. Given run to run
difference we will maintain NBM highs at this point in time. This
FROPA looks to remain dry, given lack there of moisture in place
across the region, with the better fetch of moisture remaining to
our south and east. However, there is a chance by later Sunday
evening into early Monday morning for a wintry precipitation mix as
the shortwave trough over SOCAL becomes absorbed by a closed low
over Baja Mexico. Given the current progged placement of this upper
low, there is a bit of forecast uncertainty regarding the amount of
moisture return possible with the GFS continuing to be the most
excited about potential precipitation while the ECMWF remains the
drier solution. Will maintain NBM slight chance PoPs across the
Caprock for late Sunday evening into early Monday morning, but these
may need to be lowered in future forecasts if the ECMWF pans out.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1135 PM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

Potential for fog and stratus continues to look favorable, mainly at
KLBB from a bit before sunrise to mid-morning. IFR and possible LIFR
conditions still look most likely there. The potential at KPVW is
still uncertain and will keep that limited to a TEMPO group.
Otherwise, VFR conditions can be expected with south to southwest
winds mostly at or below 12 kts.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory from 3 AM to 10 AM CST Wednesday for TXZ034-
035-039>042.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...07