Lubbock, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

623
FXUS64 KLUB 200558
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1158 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1156 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

 - Another day of dry, warm, and breezy conditions Saturday with temperatures
   well above seasonal normals.

 - Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are likely across the
   Caprock.

 - Slightly cooler to start the new week, climbing back above
   normal through the holiday week with no precipitation in sight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1156 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

Another day of dry and breezy conditions with temperatures remaining
well above normal for December standards are on tap for the area
Saturday. Across the CONUS an upper level trough will continue to
dig through the northeast, while the upper level ridge over the
Central Plains flattens in response to a weak shortwave translating
across the US/CA border. As a result, flow aloft will become zonal
across the Texas Panhandle region, assisting in the quiet conditions
across the region. Winds will prevail out of the west-southwest
overnight through Saturday afternoon as the surface trough begins to
shift southeast as the surface high pushes southward as the cold
front advances into the Panhandle early Saturday afternoon. Models
keep this front north of the FA through the morning and early
afternoon, before advancing into the far southeastern Texas
Panhandle by the mid-afternoon. Ahead of the front, winds will
become breezy, primarily across the Caprock with wind speeds around
15 to 25 MPH, with gusts to 30 MPH. Off the Caprock, winds will
generally remain less than 15 MPH, up until the front advances
through. Thereafter, speeds behind the front will pick up once again
briefly before dying off around sunset. The downslope component to
the winds will work to bring in much drier and warmer air into the
FA ahead of the FROPA, allowing for another warm day across the
region with highs at least 10 to 15 degrees above normal in the 70s
and 80s. In fact, forecasted highs Saturday afternoon are on track
to break potential records at both KLBB and KCDS. The current record
at KLBB was set back in 1921 with a high of 80 degrees, while the
current forecasted high for Saturday is 82 degrees. While the record
at KCDS was set back in 2004 and 2010 with a high of 78 degrees,
while the current forecasted high for Saturday is 77 degrees.
Regardless if records are smashed or not, it will be hot for
December standards.

As temperatures climb this afternoon, while wind speeds ramp up
becoming breezy, we expect conditions to become critically dry
across the Caprock with RHs in the teens. Due to this, and the fact
fuels continue to dry with ERCs around the 75th to 90th percentile,
a Red Flag Warning is in effect from 11 AM until 7 PM Saturday for
portions of the South Plains. Although not as breezy and dry across
the far southern Texas Panhandle and Rolling Plains, RH driven RFTIs
around 1 to 2 will allow for elevated to near critical fire weather
concerns. Therefore, a Rangeland Fire Danger statement is in effect
from 11 AM until 7 PM Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Friday)
Issued at 1156 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

We will finally see a short lived break from the unseasonably warm
temperatures Sunday, thanks to the FROPA on Saturday bringing a
cooler air mass into the region from the north. Although still above
normal, highs will be several degrees cooler form previous days in
the upper 50s and 60s. Unfortunately, the cooler air will mix out
fast as an upper high develops across Baja California and shifts
eastward into the Rio Grande Valley. The center of the high will set
up over the Big Country by Monday evening, increasing thickness and
height values across the FA. At the surface, winds will remain out
of the south-southwest for much of the extended as lee troughing
develops daily. Warm downsloping winds, combined with subsidence
beneath he upper level ridge will support the continuation of above
normal temperatures through the holiday week, with afternoon highs
in the 70s and 80s. Dry conditions are expected to persist as the
ridge suppresses any precipitation chances. As the warm, dry, and
occasionally breezy conditions continue, we will likely see daily
chances for at least elevated fire weather concerns across the FA.
There is some light at the end of the tunnel, with ensembles hinting
at a chance for cooler and wetter conditions towards the new year.
However, it is too early to get into specifics at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1156 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

VFR is expected through the TAF period. Breezy winds out of the
southwest will remain in place during the overnight hours at KLBB
and KPVW with a slight turning of the winds more to the west towards
sunrise. After sunrise on Saturday, winds will increase again out of
the west at KLBB and KPVW. A cold front will move through the area,
first at KCDS late in the morning, then at KLBB and KPVW around 00-
01Z. Winds will shift to the northeast behind this front and will
decrease in speeds.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1156 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

Elevated to critical fire weather concerns are possible Saturday as
unseasonably warm, dry, and breezy conditions develop. Southwest
winds will become breezy this afternoon around 10 to 25 MPH, gusting
to 30 MPH. While the highest wind speeds will be fixated across the
South Plains closest to the wind maxima. As winds increase during
peak heating hours, with highs ranging from the 70s to 80s this
afternoon, minimum RH values will drop as low as 10 percent across
the breeziest areas, while in the low to mid teens elsewhere. As a
result, a Red Flag Warning is in effect for the South Plains from 11
AM until 7 PM Saturday. Although not as breezy and dry elsewhere,
elevated to near critical fire weather concerns are likely,
therefore a Rangeland Fire Danger Statement is in effect from 11
AM until 7 PM Saturday for the far southern Texas Panhandle and
Rolling Plains.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 7 PM CST Saturday for TXZ027-028-
033>035-039>042.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...01