Lubbock, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

876
FXUS64 KLUB 021107
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
607 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Showers over northwestern portions of the CWA will continue
   through the morning hours.

 - Rain shower and thunderstorm chances are forecast to increase
   the end of this week and into this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 225 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Elevated showers will continue across our northwestern zones through
the early morning hours. Activity has been mostly light, but a few
bonafide showers have develop with rainfall heavy enough for some
drops to make it to the surface. While these showers have not moved
over a mesonet (and are moving too quickly for any meaning rainfall
to be measured), they have slightly lowered surface temp/dewpoint
depressions. CAMS have backed off the prospect of having convection
develop across the southern Rolling Plains before pushing east of
the FA this morning. Moisture return behind the retreating dryline
is slow but rich. Dewpoints at the Roby West Texas Mesonet have
increase from 23 degrees to 58 degrees over the course of an hour,
and this moisture is continuing to advect northward. The biggest
issue is meaningful moisture is well removed from the main source of
lift, the dryline. IR satellite did show some elevated weak
convection develop along the dryline, but efforts have been futile
with CU quickly dissipating with no further attempts since 06Z.

Today will be noticably cooler thanks to a Pacific front that is
currently draped across our northwestern zones and pushing steadily
southeastward. The front will be through the FA by sunrise. Despite
the cooler temperatures, afternoon humidity will still drop into the
single digits across most of the FA. 15-20 mph winds will allow fire
weather conditions to become elevated. Though fuels are dry, some
greenup is helping to mitigate much of the fire danger. Models
continue to show showers developing behind a backdoor front late
this evening into the overnight hours. Lift will be aided by an
overhead upper jet, but surface lift appears to be best across our
southern and eastern counties as a surface low develops and moves
across this region. Lift will be marginal, especially compared to
lift associated with the forthcoming upper low, with accumulations
likely being light.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 225 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

The main topic for this forecast package will be the much needed
precipitation chances beginning Thursday night through Saturday with
the best chances being Friday and Saturday. Broad upper troughing
will set up over the western and central CONUS as an upper low
develops over the Desert Southwest. The placement of the low will
bring southwesterly flow aloft supplying Pacific moisture and aide
in lift from the deformation zone. On the surface, a cold front will
track through the region early Friday. Cold advection following the
front will drop temperatures significantly below seasonal average
Friday through Sunday. Wintry mix precipitation is possible Saturday
morning for portions of the far southern Texas Panhandle and north
South Plains as low temperatures are expected to be below freezing.
Precipitation chances should diminish late Saturday through early
Sunday morning as the upper low moves east away from the region
bringing dry northwesterly flow aloft. Dry conditions continue next
week as we see a warming trend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 558 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail. Rain showers will be
possible at all terminals after 00Z, but coverage and location are
uncertain at this time. While CIGs will be lowered under showers,
they are still expected to be well within VFR range.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...51
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...51