Lubbock, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

186
FXUS64 KLUB 131104
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
604 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 558 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

 - A few thunderstorms possible on the Caprock this evening.

 - Hotter than normal temperatures through the period.

 - A slight chance of late-day to early evening thunderstorms most
   days.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 205 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Convection from earlier in the evening has since dissipated, and the
rest of the night should remain quiet. Much of the day is expected
to remain quiet as well. Models continue to develop convection along
the Mescalero Escarpment by the late afternoon/early evening.
Slight northwesterly upper flow, along with outflow, will help push
the convection across the Texas/New Mexico state line into our
western zones around sunset. Synoptic scale models dissipate the
convection by midnight as it approaches the I27/US87 corridor while
some CAMs bring the convection into the Rolling Plains well after
midnight before dissipating. Stronger convection should be able to
sustain itself long enough to make it just into the Rolling Plains,
but general convection like what was seen earlier this evening will
have a much harder time sustaining itself after sunset. PoPs will be
kept in the forecast from 00Z-06Z for now. The severe threat is
marginal with the main threat being damaging winds followed by hail
up to one inch in diameter.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 205 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Convective chances decrease going into the weekend. The upper ridge
to our west will amplify while becoming a closed low before slowly
pushing eastward. Convection is likely to develop under the center
of the upper high both tomorrow and Sunday afternoon over the
mountains of New Mexico, the position of the upper high will limit
the eastward progression of convection. Convection will rely mostly
on outflow to sustain an eastward movement, and this will be limited
as convection should dissipate not long after sunset. The severe
threat will also be limited should storms make it into our western
counties with severe wind gusts being the main threat from
collapsing updrafts. The axis of the upper ridge will push to our
east early next week as an upper shortwave trough digs across the
central CONUS. This pushes a dryline followed by a "cold" front
through the region by mid week. The progressive nature and position
of the upper trough would suggest convection chances are not 0, but
also not likely. A stout upper high is progged to build across much
if the southern CONUS by Thursday through next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 558 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

VFR conditions will prevail. There is a slight chance for -TSRA at
PVW and LBB between 00Z and 06Z tonight, but confidence is too low
to mention in this TAF cycle. If a storm does affect a terminal,
the primary hazards will be wind gusts in excess of 40 knots, hail
one inch in diameter, and brief heavy downpours that could lower
VIS to low end MVFR.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...51
LONG TERM....51
AVIATION...51