Houston, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

556
FXUS64 KHGX 021124
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
624 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 225 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

KEY POINTS:

1) Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms possible in
 our northern counties today and tomorrow. An isolated stronger
 thunderstorm capable of hail and damaging wind gusts cannot be
 ruled out.

2) Gusty winds are likely today and tomorrow. A Wind Advisory is
 in effect today. Winds could gust over 40 MPH at times.

The mid/upper pattern across CONUS has amplified, featuring deep
layer troughing out west, and a building ridge over E CONUS. The
trough has induced cyclogenesis in the Central Plains, which is
evident by the deepening sfc low that is progressing from Kansas
into Nebraska and Iowa today. The low is steepening the gradient
across SE TX, resulting in gusty southerly winds. These winds
could easily gust over 30 MPH and potentially over 40 MPH at times
today (especially in our southern and coastal counties). Given
the windy conditions at the sfc, it should be no surprised that
the vertical wind profile will be highly sheered. The profile will
also be veering, a signal of WAA. This WAA will be particularly
pronounced in the 800-700 MB layer, developing a stout cap over
the area. The cap may not be super strong early in the afternoon,
allowing some isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm
development. But as the cap strengthens, the potential for deeper
convection wanes. That being said, the cap will be weaker across
our northern counties, which might allow the formation of deeper
convection. Given the moisture, LL instability, and shear
parameters, we cannot rule out a few strong to severe
thunderstorms across our northern counties today. SPC currently
has a our northern counties in a Marginal Risk (Level 1/5) for
severe storms capable of producing hail, damaging wind gusts, and
a tornado. Could not rule out thunderstorms farther south. But the
cap would need to be much weaker.

Much like yesterday, I`m looking at forecast soundings that love
the idea of persistent low clouds. My concern was that soundings
were a little too cool with LL temps and might be overdoing the
thickness of the LL cloud deck due to less predicted mixing.
Interestingly, my assumptions about the sfc temperatures were
correct (except in the Piney Woods), but the clouds held on
anyway. So I`m going to go with persistence forecasting when it
comes to clouds/temp trends. I lean into the cloudier forecast
soundings (still could be breaks in the clouds) while also biasing
my forecast warmer than the guidance, generally showing afternoon
highs in the mid/upper 80s with a few 90 degree spots here and
there. It will be quite humid as well but at least the breeze
will take a bite out of the heat. Overnight temps are only
expected to drop into the low/mid 70s.

Interestingly, we find ourselves in a similar environment on
Thursday. But this time, an area of low pressure is expected to
form much farther south. There should be a little more large scale
lift. Plus, forecast soundings are less aggressive with capping
(though still show no shortage of capping). SPC is indicating a
slightly higher risk of isolated severe thunderstorms tomorrow.
However, recent guidance has backed off on QPF / precip. So it may
be worth looking at SPC`s afternoon update for potential changes
to the outlook.

Self

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 225 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

KEY POINTS:

- Severe weather risk continues with the highest probabilities north
of I-10.
- Flooding potential increases this weekend.
- A significant drop in temperatures is expected early next week,
following the front.

Unsettled weather is expected as we move into the end of the work
week and the start of the weekend, with warm and humid conditions,
and a risk of severe weather and heavy rainfall. By Friday, the
quasi-stationary front will be extending to our northwest, along
north-central TX. At the same time, a surface trough will develop
along the northwestern Gulf. The dynamic continues aloft with
increasing PVA associated with an approaching low moving across the
southwestern CONUS/northern Mexico. This pattern of SW to S flow
aloft and southerly flow at the surface will continue to surge Gulf
moisture inland, and increase instability. Some isentropic lifting
can be found on the 300 K layer; therefore, expect partly to mostly
cloudy skies along with isolated to scattered showers and storms.
Daytime heating, decent shear, and instability will be capable of
producing a few strong storms, especially across our northwestern
counties. Will continue to monitor the severe weather potential.

The atmosphere becomes more favorable for showers and thunderstorms
Friday night into Saturday evening as the aforementioned front
begins to move southeastward into the region. Ahead of the front, PW
values remain into the 1.6 to 2.0 inch range, with increasing low to
mid lvl instability and strong bulk shear. On top of that, a strong
40 to 50 kt LLJ will develop ahead of the boundary, resulting in
more unstable conditions. Having said that, scattered showers and
storms are progged as the front moves through late Friday into
Saturday. A few of these storms will be capable of becoming strong
to severe with all severe weather hazards possible (damaging winds,
large hail, isolated tornadoes, locally heavy rainfall). SPC
continues to highlight this threat in their day 4 convective outlook
with a Slight Risk for areas generally north of I-10. Will continue
to monitor trends and the evolution of the mid-upper low Wed-Friday
as it may impact the potential for Saturday.

We have good news if you like cool weather. Well-below normal
temperatures are progged behind the front. Global models show 850 mb
temperatures in the single digits (degC) by Sunday. This suggests
highs mainly in the 60s, which is around 10 to 15 degF below normal
for this time of year. It will be a brief cool down as temperatures
will gradually climb into the 70s by early next week.

JM

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 616 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Generally MVFR cigs are expected through the TAF period, though we
may see periods of VFR cigs this afternoon. One of the primary
weather hazards of concern today will be the gusty southerly
winds. Sustained winds are expected to average 15 to 20 knots.
However, periods of higher winds with gusts over 30 knots are
likely, especially from the Houston area points south to the coast
later this morning and afternoon. Any improvement in cigs this
afternoon is expected to be short-lived, with cigs likely falling
this evening and tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 225 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Moderate to strong onshore winds and building seas are expected
today across the bays and Gulf waters in response to an approaching
slow-moving front. Hazardous marine conditions will continue through
the week and into the upcoming weekend with seas gradually building
up to 9-10+ ft offshore. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect
and is now in effect through the end of the week. Rain and storms
will be on the increase this weekend along and ahead a cold front.

In addition to marine conditions, beach conditions will become
hazardous to dangerous with an increasing risk of high rip currents
and coastal flood risk. High water levels during times of high tide
will potentially lead to minor coastal flooding along Gulf-facing
beaches. A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect through this
evening. This statement will likely be extended through most of the
week.

JM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  86  72  88  73 /  30   0  30  20
Houston (IAH)  88  74  89  75 /  20  10  10  10
Galveston (GLS)  81  74  80  74 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Wind Advisory until 5 PM CDT this afternoon for TXZ214-226-227-
     235>238-313-335>338-436>439.

     Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Friday for GMZ330-335-350-
     355-370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Self
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...Self
MARINE...JM