Houston, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

001
FXUS64 KHGX 141138
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
538 AM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Negative tide levels are anticipated in the bays this week, most
  significant late Wednesday-Thursday.

- Two dry cold fronts are forecast to push through the area: one
  this afternoon and another Friday. These fronts will keep
  temperatures seasonably cool into the weekend.

- Brief warm up on Sunday before a third cold front early next
  week brings potential for rainfall.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1135 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

The progressive nature of the weather pattern is the main thing
that stands out for the next week or so - with not just one, or
even two, but three cold fronts on tap for our area. This quick
succession of frontal passages (and corresponding return of
onshore flow) should keep us in generally seasonable conditions -
though we`ll probably not get too many days right at average.
Instead, we`ll yo-yo between a little bit cooler than the average
and a little bit warmer than the average, depending on what side
of a front we find ourselves on.

Front number one arrives Wednesday morning, looking to push
through our northernmost locations in the area a couple hours or
so after dawn, reaching the Houston metro in the 10-11 am range,
and pushing offshore over the Gulf early this afternoon. This will
be a dry frontal passage, marked most significantly by the shift
to stronger northwesterly winds and a cooler, drier airmass
surging into the area. While fuels conditions around and above
normal moisture for the time of year mitigates concern for
explosive fire weather conditions, it still looks like Wednesday
will be a dry, breezy afternoon. For all but very unique, specific
circumstances, it`s probably just best to put off outdoor work
involving sparks or flames for another day.

Thursday should provide us another dry day as winds remain
offshore, but should weaken significantly, before turning back
onshore by Thursday evening. This should ensure that Wednesday
night is our chilliest, and only night in this segment with a
light freeze only up around Houston County. This also means we`ll
enter a short warming period, and Friday should be near, but above
average.

And by short, I do mean short. Cold front number two looks to
shove through the area Friday night, knocking us back to the cool
side of average Saturday, and a return of a brief, light freeze to
the northernmost portions of the area (Hellloooooo, Houston
County!) With some more sun, we`ll see things mark their way back
on the upward trend Sunday, with onshore flow back in place by
Sunday evening.

Though onshore flow does not look exceedingly strong, there is
pretty strong consensus in the model envelope that our third front
early next week will see enough moisture return to actually
generate some showers when it makes its way through, unlike the
first two dry fronts. What`s not as high confidence? Well, pretty
close to everything else. The current forecast splatters PoPs of
20-40 percent over a long stretch of early next week. This will
likely have to shift over time, as I don`t really expect we`ll see
rain chances drawn out so long. Rather, this is more of an
indication that uncertainty in the long range forecast is having a
hard time landing on a specific time range for the best rain
chances at this time. For now, we`ll want to keep an eye on early
next week and see how expectations evolve.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 533 AM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Winds this morning
will be around 5-10kt out of the southwest, but will turn westerly
by the mid to late morning ahead of an approaching cold front.
This front will usher in strong northerly winds (around
15G20-25kt) that will continue through this evening. FROPA will
occur at CLL around 14-15z, IAH around 16-17z, and then off the
coast by 18-20z. The wind gusts diminish by this evening with
continued lowering winds through the night.

Fowler

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1135 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

Light winds and low seas will persist through the night. A cold
front is expected to push into the waters Wednesday afternoon,
which will turn winds northwesterly to northerly, strengthening
into the afternoon.

Seas will build along with the winds, prompting a Small Craft
Advisory On the coastal Gulf waters, occasional gusts to around
gale may be seen, though most winds will be closer to 25 knots. On
the bays, mariners should anticipate negative tide levels through
the week, especially around low tide cycles in the upper portions
of the bays. Negative tides look likely to prompt a need for a
low water advisory Thursday morning, but confidence is not quite
high enough to issue such an advisory yet.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  67  35  58  42 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  68  40  58  42 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  68  45  57  51 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 6 AM CST
     Thursday for GMZ330-335.

     Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 6 AM CST Thursday for
     GMZ350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Luchs
AVIATION...Fowler
MARINE...Luchs