Houston, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

773
FXUS64 KHGX 221035
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
435 AM CST Sun Dec 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday Night)
Issued at 316 AM CST Sun Dec 22 2024

If you`re like me and enjoy temperatures that feel winter-ish,
you`ll want to take advantage of the cold air this morning as it
could very well be our last time seeing temperatures in the 30s this
year. That`s my way of attempting to jinx things to get another
round of cold air soon, so we`ll see if that ends up working!
Expecting another round of pre-sunrise temperatures in the 30s/40s
with freezing temperatures possible around the Piney Woods. With
surface high pressure continuing to slide eastward, we`ll begin to
feel the effects of the return of onshore flow today. Low level
moisture will gradually increase along with increasingly favorable
positioning for WAA as surface low pressure develops around the
TX/OK panhandle and places more of Southeast TX in its warm sector.
High temperatures this afternoon will top out mainly in the 60s, but
some low 70s will be possible around Matagorda Bay. A weak shortwave
trough pushes in later today, but with moisture still on the low
side this won`t do much other than generate some upper level clouds
in our northwestern zones. This should make for a rather picturesque
sunset for folks around the Brazos Valley.

The most notable impact for ALL of Southeast Texas will be the
warming trend as a result of the previously mentioned ingredients.
Low temperatures on Sunday night will be about 10-15F warmer
compared to Saturday night as we only drop down into the upper 40s
to low 50s. With moisture advection and WAA persisting on Monday in
addition to lingering PVA, Monday will be warm and noticeably more
humid. By Monday afternoon, PW values will be around 0.9"-1.1" which
is approaching the 75th percentile (~1.12") out west. Quite a few of
the 00Z CAMs depict some isolated light WAA showers on Monday
afternoon, but not so fast my friend! Most of that moisture falls
between the 750mb-850mb layer with a dry layer extending from about
~1km AGL to the surface. While some raindrops may manage to reach
the surface, most of it should evaporate beforehand...so added in
10% PoPs for virga. Areas west of I-45 will have the best chance of
feeling any rogue raindrops on Monday. As far as temperatures go on
Monday, expect highs in the low to upper 70s.

Now back to that surface low pressure...it`s going to drift eastward
along the Red River throughout the day on Monday as an upper level
trough moving through the TX panhandle provides a push. Rain chances
will be on the rise offshore initially on Monday night, but expect
them to continue to climb going into the long term period. There
remains some potential for patchy fog around the Brazos Valley on
Monday night, but a ~25 kt LLJ may keep winds elevated enough
overnight to inhibit fog development. There is waaay more certainty
in Monday night`s temperatures being absurdly above normal. Low
temperatures Monday night will be mainly in the upper 50s (Piney
Woods) to low 60s (elsewhere), which is nearly our normal HIGH
temperature this time of the year. At least Monday is National Bake
Day, so we can bake some sweet treats to distract us from the
warming temperatures.

Batiste

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 316 AM CST Sun Dec 22 2024

A couple of storm systems and associated showers/storms will be moving
eastward across the state. Look for increasing rain coverage beginning
Tuesday morning then peaking Tuesday afternoon until around sunrise
Wednesday morning. At this time, rainfall totals look to average around
or under 1/4 inch in/around the Matagorda Bay area to maybe up to
1 inch in/around the Crockett area. Locally higher amounts will be possible,
and we might need to keep our eyes open for a strong/severe thunderstorm
or two. This event should come to an end in time for any Christmas Day
plans. The next disturbance in the progressive flow should bring increasing
rain chances back to the area on Thursday with a peak Thursday afternoon
until around sunrise Friday morning. At this time and similar to the
first event, rainfall totals are expected to be highest in/around the
Piney Woods area (around 1 to 1.50 inches) and lowest in/around the
Matagorda Bay area (around 1/4 inch or less). Locally higher amounts
will be possible once again. Another system after this second one will
support keeping some rain chances in the forecast at the end of the
week and on into Saturday. For daily temperatures, look for highs in
the 70s and lows in the 50s. At this time, it looks like the area cools
back down starting Saturday night after the passage of a cold front.

42

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 435 AM CST Sun Dec 22 2024

Satellite imagery and observations reveal a deck of overcast cloud
cover around 6,000ft moving into the northwestern quadrant of
Southeast TX. As of now, it appears that it will not push past the
I-10 corridor. Either way, VFR conditions are expected throughout
the TAF period with easterly winds becoming southeasterly by this
afternoon. The one questionable spot is CLL where some model
guidance is hinting at the potential for MVFR ceilings late Sunday
night/Monday morning.

Batiste

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 316 AM CST Sun Dec 22 2024

Light to moderate east winds today will become southeast tonight. South
to southeast winds can be expected through much of the upcoming week.
Caution flags may be needed at times. The next best chances of rain
are expected Tuesday afternoon through early Wednesday morning and then
again Thursday afternoon through early Friday morning as a series of
storm systems move across the area.  42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  66  51  74  61 /   0   0  10  10
Houston (IAH)  64  50  72  61 /   0   0  10  10
Galveston (GLS)  63  59  69  64 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Batiste
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...42