Grand Prairie, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

656
FXUS64 KFWD 030001
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
701 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe thunderstorms will begin to develop along a
  warm front overnight into the early morning hours across North
  Texas. Large to very large hail and damaging winds are the main
  threats. There is a low threat for a tornado or two.

- There will be multiple, potentially numerous, rounds of strong
  to severe thunderstorms through Saturday.

- Flooding will be of increasing concern heading into this
  upcoming weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Thursday Afternoon/

Much of this afternoon and evening will be rather uneventful for
North and Central Texas with lingering showers and thunderstorms
from earlier already pushing off into East Texas along a weak
frontal boundary that cleared the region through the day today.

The main forecast challenge will be the exact placement of this
boundary as we move through the overnight hours and into Thursday
morning. This boundary will shift to the north as a warm front
starting as early as 10 PM this evening. There is a low chance for
isolated to widely scattered warm advection showers ahead and
along this front as it moves north. Lowering clouds will also
accompany this, leading to muggy and warm conditions overnight.

Convective activity will quickly ramp up as early as 2 to 3 AM
across portions North and Central Texas, generally ahead of the
aforementioned warm front. As the radarscope blossoms, strong to
severe thunderstorms will once again be on the cards for North
Texas - generally along and north of the I-20 corridor.
Atmospheric conditions will once again be supportive of large to
very large hail (upwards of 2+ inches) and damaging winds due to
plenty of instability and shear. There is a low chance for
tornadogenesis in our strongest storms that manage to organize,
and this chance will only increase if they are latched onto the
warm front. This would lead to all hazards and would serve to
increase the hail size potential as well. The timing of these
storms will be important since much of this activity is currently
expected to be ongoing leading up to and during the morning
commute. Convective evolution will likely lead to upscale growth
along the warm front, leading to convective clusters which would
serve to increase the damaging wind threat along and east of the
I-35 corridor through the morning hours. Any remaining activity
will weaken and diminish through the mid to late morning, with
isolated showers pushing off to the east through the afternoon
hours. The frontal boundary will continue to meander across our
coverage area however, with additional rounds beyond this period.

Reeves

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 239 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025/
/Thursday Night Onward/

By Thursday night, the earlier wave of activity will be exiting
to the east/northeast. This will not be the end of our week of
unsettled weather. The ever-oscillating frontal boundary will
continue to provide a focus for additional rounds of precipitation
Thursday night through Saturday as the upper level longwave
trough to our west finally begins to spread eastward. Numerous
showers and storms are expected across the region, with the
highest coverage mainly across North Texas both Friday and
Saturday. 0-6km flow remains more parallel to the boundary,
meaning that storms will grow upscale and become more linear.
Ample instability, steep lapse rates between 7-8 degC/km, and
deep layer shear > 40 kts will promote the continued potential of
severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds both days.
Additionally, backed low-level winds, efficient streamwise
vorticity ingestion, and 0-1 km shear > 30 kts will promote an
increased tornado threat, particularly for areas near and east of
I-35 on Friday.

Southwest to northeast steering flow and the multiple rounds of
precipitation will allow for training storms, and increase the
flood threat. This is particularly true for areas northeast of the
DFW Metroplex, where 4-5" of total rainfall accumulation is
expected between tonight and Saturday night, with isolated (10%
chance) totals of 8+" where training storms line up. As such, a
Flood Watch has been issued for our northeastern counties
beginning at 1 AM Friday through Sunday morning for this increased
threat. Remember to never drive through flooded roads, and to
always find an alternate route. Elsewhere across North Texas, you
can expect around 1.5" to 3.5" of 72 hour rainfall totals tonight
through Saturday morning, with lower totals down into Central
Texas.

The front will push fully through the region on Saturday,
shunting the rain chances to our east, and bringing gusty
conditions to the region. Expect much cooler conditions behind
the front with afternoon highs mainly in the 50s on Sunday.

Prater

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00z TAFs/

Concerns...MVFR/IFR ceilings, VCTS/TSRA, meandering warm front.

VFR ceilings will remain in place for most of the TAF sites.
These will drop down to MVFR again tonight, quickly dropping to
IFR as early as 05z across Waco. These will continue north along
a warm front, with a medium chance for IFR ceilings making to the
D10 just around sunrise tomorrow morning. These lowered ceilings
will most likely linger through much of the day and into the
afternoon as the front stalls out across the region with little in
the way of improvement. Impacts will linger through the period.

Otherwise, much of this afternoon and evening will be uneventful
for the TAF sites with much of the earlier shower and thunderstorm
activity pushed off into East Texas. Warm advection showers will
develop along the warm front across much of the D10 as early as
06z with VCTS starting at 08z. CAMs are still focusing in on TSRA
timing which will need to be adjusted in subsequent TAFs through
the night, but 10-12z seems reasonable. Winds will depend on the
placement of the front and where it stalls out, either way - they
should remain at or below 7 knots. This of course will not be the
case nearby any thunderstorms.

Reeves

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is possible across portions of North Texas over
the next couple of days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    61  73  61  78  56 /  80  70  90 100 100
Waco                66  82  67  83  60 /  20  40  60  90  90
Paris               59  71  62  77  59 /  80  80  90 100 100
Denton              55  68  56  75  52 /  80  70  90 100 100
McKinney            58  71  60  77  56 /  80  70  90 100 100
Dallas              62  75  62  77  58 /  80  70  80 100 100
Terrell             63  77  65  80  59 /  80  70  80 100 100
Corsicana           68  82  69  84  62 /  40  50  70  90  90
Temple              68  85  69  85  60 /  10  20  50  80  90
Mineral Wells       55  68  56  73  52 /  80  60  80  90 100

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from late Thursday night through Sunday morning for
TXZ094-095-105>107-123.

&&

$$