Garland, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

324
FXUS64 KFWD 150439
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1139 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A complex of thunderstorms may push into parts of North Texas
  Sunday morning into early Sunday afternoon (30-60% chance).

- Low rain chances (10-20%) continue into early next week with
  seasonably hot and humid conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Overnight through Monday/

A complex of thunderstorms currently in progress across Central
Oklahoma will continue to spread south toward the Red River
overnight. The consensus of the high resolution guidance indicates
that this cluster of thunderstorms will make it into North Texas
around sunrise, although in a weakened state as instability will
be at a diurnal minimum. While these storms currently pose a
severe threat, this will diminish with time as they move south. We
can`t rule out an isolated severe wind gust through the early
morning hours. While it`s still a little uncertain whether or not
convection will remain intact all the way down to the I-20
corridor, it does appear likely that a strong southward moving
outflow boundary will spread as far south as I-20 by mid morning.
This boundary will also likely serve as a focus for additional
convective development into the afternoon hours. We`ve raised PoPs
to 50-60% across our northern counties during the morning hours
and have 20-40% along the I-20 corridor. Additional storms are
also expected to develop across southeast TX where abundant
moisture remains in place and sea breeze activity increases.

All of this convective activity should decrease in coverage during
the evening hours with loss of heating and Sunday night should
generally be quiet, although warm and muggy. Stronger mid level
ridging will begin to push eastward during the day Monday with
isolated convective activity expected mainly across our far
eastern counties.

Dunn

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 134 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025/
/Sunday Night and Beyond/

We will have another opportunity (20-30% chance) for MCS activity
and an associated damaging wind threat late Sunday night into
Monday morning across portions of North Texas before building mid-
level heights constrain low rain chances to our far eastern
counties early next week. Temperatures will rise into the mid 90s
region-wide by Tuesday-Wednesday. A shortwave digging across the
Central Plains midweek may drop a weak front toward North Texas
potentially increasing rain chances north of I-20 in the late
Wednesday-Thursday time frame. Confidence is increasing that the
upper-ridge axis will shift over the state of Texas late in the
work week essentially ending rain chances for a large portion of
our area, minus daily seabreeze activity in our far southeast.

Langfeld

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/6Z TAFs/

VFR prevails across the region at this hour although we`ll be
watching a complex of storms across Oklahoma steadily make
southward progress into early Sunday morning. This cluster of
storms should be in a weakening phase after sunrise but a strong
outflow boundary will likely push southward through the D10
airspace around midday. This will result in temporary north winds
and perhaps additional scattered storm development. We`ll show
this TEMPO in the latest TAF with -TSRA from 16-18Z. In addition,
some MVFR cigs are likely during the morning hours although it`s a
little uncertain whether or not these will make it to the major
airports or remain confined to areas just east.

Dunn

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    77  92  75  94  76 /   5  40  10  10   0
Waco                73  92  74  92  74 /   5  40  10  10   0
Paris               67  87  71  87  74 /  20  50  20  30   0
Denton              75  92  73  94  75 /   5  40  20  10   0
McKinney            78  91  73  92  75 /  10  40  20  20   0
Dallas              76  94  75  94  77 /   5  40  20  10   0
Terrell             74  90  73  90  74 /  10  30  20  20   0
Corsicana           74  91  75  91  75 /   5  30  10  20   0
Temple              73  92  73  93  74 /  20  40   5   5   0
Mineral Wells       74  94  73  97  74 /   5  40  10  10   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$