El Paso, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

936
FXUS64 KEPZ 081140
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
540 AM MDT Tue Jul 8 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 526 AM MDT Tue Jul 8 2025

 - Lower grade monsoon conditions expected for the next several
   days, though northerly flow aloft will favor thunderstorms
   working into the lowlands in the evenings, especially in
   southwestern New Mexico.

 - Some lowland storms could bring gusty winds and blowing dust as
   low level moisture becomes limited.

 - High temperatures will run about 5 to 10 degrees above normal
   through the end of the week.

 - Uptick in thunderstorm coverage possible Friday into Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1021 PM MDT Mon Jul 7 2025

The subtropical ridge remains parked over the middle of the AZ/NM
state line this evening. A cluster of strong thunderstorms is
riding down the eastern edge of the ridge, with gusty
thunderstorms over SE New Mexico. Most convection in our area has
diminished, with widespread lighter showers present over the
Bootheel, while a more significant MCS is located over NE Sonora
(though fairly weak by Sierra Madre standards).

The ridge will stay more or less stationary through tomorrow, with
northerly flow bringing in slightly drier air in the mid-levels,
but also some cooler air aloft will sneak in from the north
during the afternoon and evening. HREF members, particularly the
HRRR, still bring us a fairly active afternoon and evening, even
as PWAT values become a little worked over and drop below 1.10
inches at ELP, and around 0.80 inches in northern Sierra County
late in the afternoon. NNE to SSW steering flow favors
Southwestern New Mexico for the best lowland thunderstorm chances
in the evening. As dewpoints drop into the upper-40s to lower-50s,
and temperatures climb in the upper-90s, the threat of gusty
downburst winds increases. We`ll need to keep an eye on Lordsburg
Playa late in the afternoon/early evening as convection pushes
south into the lowlands.

Northeasterly flow aloft on Wednesday will continue the drying
trend, and bring thunderstorm chances down a tick, especially in
the lowlands. By Thursday, the ridge looks to become low amplitude
(squashed) as it drifts west towards northern Baja, with a and E-W
ridge axis remaining over southern Arizona into southern New
Mexico. A weak shortwave trough will try and graze by the eastern
edge of the ridge, but mid-level temperatures look quite warm, (-4
to -5C), likely inhibiting convection.

An inverted trough passing well to our south Friday evening looks
to ignite the Sierra Madres, helping to boost low level moisture
across our area heading into Saturday. By then the subtropical
ridge looks to have recentered itself well to our west, over
coastal southern California, with north to northeasterly flow
aloft over New Mexico. But, it doesn`t look to bring in
particularly drier air aloft. Instead, a passing northern stream
shortwave trough looks to deliver some cooler air aloft, with 500
mb temperatures dropping to around -7 to -8C Saturday afternoon.
This looks to bring an uptick in convection across the area.

Things look very unclear after Saturday, as troughing may try to
develop to the east of the subtropical ridge, and northerly flow
aloft continues. This will bring weak disturbances in from the
north, but eventually should start to introduce some drier air
over time. But, a series of inverted troughs deep inside Mexico
look to keep the northern Sierra Madres active, and possibly a
source of low level moisture intrusions. So while we`re not
looking at a terribly moist period (PWATS 1.00-1.20 inches), we
may be relatively active regardless.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 526 AM MDT Tue Jul 8 2025

VFR conditions through the morning before storms pop up over the
area mountains at 18Z which will spread to the desert lowlands in
the mid to late afternoon hours. Kept PROB30s for all sites except
KTCS for this afternoon. Gusty outflow winds up to around 40KT
directly under thunderstorms possible with BLDU and rain causing
reductions in visibilities possible. Storm activity will diminish
after sunset but should be done by late this evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1157 AM MDT Mon Jul 7 2025

There will be a gradual warming trend over the week with high
temperatures reaching 100-105 over most of the lowlands by Thu.
There will be some modest moisture still around but expect Min
RH`s in the mid to upper teens in the lowlands with 20s and 30s in
the mountains. There will be a scattered storms daily in the
mountains with some moving onto the lowlands with the best chance
being through Tuesday. Winds will generally be under 15 mph but
with good mixing heights, vent rates will be very good through
Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 100  78 102  78 /  40  50   0  20
Sierra Blanca            91  67  93  67 /  20  20   0  10
Las Cruces               98  72  99  72 /  40  50   0  30
Alamogordo               97  70  98  71 /  50  40  10  20
Cloudcroft               73  53  74  54 /  60  50  30  20
Truth or Consequences    99  73  99  75 /  20  20  10  30
Silver City              93  67  94  68 /  40  30  50  40
Deming                  101  72 102  74 /  40  50  10  30
Lordsburg               100  73 101  74 /  40  40  20  40
West El Paso Metro       97  77  99  77 /  40  50   0  20
Dell City                95  71  97  70 /  40  40   0  10
Fort Hancock             99  75 100  74 /  20  20   0  20
Loma Linda               90  69  92  70 /  40  40  10  20
Fabens                   99  75 100  75 /  30  40   0  20
Santa Teresa             97  75  98  75 /  40  50   0  20
White Sands HQ           98  76  99  77 /  50  40  10  30
Jornada Range            97  71  99  72 /  40  30  10  30
Hatch                   101  72 102  73 /  40  30  10  30
Columbus                100  75 101  77 /  40  50   0  30
Orogrande                95  71  96  72 /  40  40  10  20
Mayhill                  83  57  84  58 /  50  40  30  20
Mescalero                85  58  86  59 /  60  50  30  20
Timberon                 81  56  81  56 /  60  50  20  20
Winston                  91  61  92  62 /  30  30  30  30
Hillsboro                98  69  99  70 /  40  30  20  30
Spaceport                98  69  99  70 /  30  20  10  30
Lake Roberts             95  62  95  62 /  40  30  50  40
Hurley                   95  68  97  68 /  40  30  30  30
Cliff                   101  69 102  69 /  40  30  40  40
Mule Creek               97  66  99  67 /  30  30  30  30
Faywood                  95  69  95  69 /  50  40  30  30
Animas                  100  72 102  74 /  40  50  20  40
Hachita                  98  71  99  72 /  40  50  10  40
Antelope Wells           97  72  99  72 /  40  50  20  40
Cloverdale               94  71  95  69 /  40  50  30  50

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...37-Slusher