El Paso, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

866
FXUS64 KEPZ 221123
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
423 AM MST Sun Dec 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 200 AM MST Sun Dec 22 2024

 - Abnormal warm weather next few days with lowland highs in the
   upper sixties.

 - Pacific cold front arrives on Christmas with gusty evening
   winds and a slight cool down into Thursday.

 - Dry conditions likely to prevail through the rest of the year
   with only a slight chance for light snow showers in the
   mountains Wednesday and Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 AM MST Sun Dec 22 2024

Pleasant weekend of weather continues into Sunday with
temperatures well above normal for late December. Lowland highs
will reach the upper 60s this afternoon, and we may even see a few
70s. Broad high pressure over northern Mexico extends into our
area, diverting the polar jet track well to our north. Dry and
sunny weather today under light south flow.

Upper high breaks down early this week, retrograding west over the
Pacific Ocean. This will bring about a slightly more active
weather pattern through the rest of the year as the jet stream
track drifts further south and a progressive train of upper waves
pass by.

Deterministic models show the first weak wave passes through on
Monday, bringing an increase in cloud cover and surface wind shift
to the west. Temperatures will remain warm and no precipitation
is expected with this first wave.

Second wave is a bit stronger, depicted as a closed low moving
across northern New Mexico on Christmas Day. El Paso and southern
New Mexico will be on the southern end of this system, suggesting
another dry event along the International Border. NBM does have
low-end PoPs Wednesday night for the Gila National Forest, where
a light wintry mix is possible. Winds increase Christmas evening
as a Pacific cold front arrives, becoming somewhat breezy (peak
gusts in the 25-35 mph range). Temperatures fall a few degrees on
Thursday, closer to normal but still warm with lowland highs in
the lower 60s. Again this is all low-impact weather and no
headlines are expected, but at least something to discuss.

Third wave timed for late next week, around Friday. Again, slight
increase in westerly winds but continued dry conditions. Extended
models show high pressure building back in toward the end of 2024,
suggesting more warm and dry low-impact weather for New Year`s
Eve.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 430 AM MST Sun Dec 22 2024

VMC expected through the forecast period at all terminals. Skies
SKC today, becoming SCT-BKN150 Monday morning. Surface winds out
of the SW 210-240 at 05-10 knots this afternoon, light and
variable again overnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 200 AM MST Sun Dec 22 2024

Elevated fire danger today due to abnormally warm and dry
conditions. Temperatures will run 10-15 degrees above normal for
late December with min RH 10-20%. West winds 10 to 15 mph will
prevent any fire headlines. Smoke ventilation Poor to Fair with
transport due east.

Light west flow continues through much of a week ahead. Breezy
winds (gusts 25 to 35 mph) on Wednesday as a Pacific low passes
to our north. Minimal precipitation chances in place through the
rest of the year. Fuel moisture is near seasonal normals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  69  41  69  41 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            67  39  66  38 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               69  38  69  39 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               64  34  65  34 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               51  33  48  29 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    66  38  66  37 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              66  41  64  37 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   71  36  71  34 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                70  36  68  32 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       67  41  67  41 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                67  30  66  32 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             71  34  70  34 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               61  41  61  39 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   70  36  69  35 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             66  35  67  35 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           67  42  67  42 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            66  32  66  33 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    70  34  71  34 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 69  39  71  37 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                63  34  64  34 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  66  39  62  34 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                59  35  58  31 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 59  33  58  30 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  67  32  64  28 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                70  39  68  37 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                66  32  67  33 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             66  37  64  32 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   69  36  66  32 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    73  25  71  21 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               67  38  65  34 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  68  41  67  37 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   73  36  71  34 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  72  35  70  32 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           75  40  72  37 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               69  44  66  41 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...30-Dennhardt