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Denton, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast
Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation
NWS Forecast for Denton TX
National Weather Service Forecast for: Denton TX
Issued by: National Weather Service Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Updated: 5:25 pm CDT Jul 8, 2025
 
Tonight

Tonight: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms before 7pm, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 4am.  Partly cloudy, with a low around 76. South wind around 5 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Slight Chance
T-storms

Wednesday

Wednesday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 10am, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm.  Sunny, with a high near 95. Heat index values as high as 103. South wind around 5 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Chance
T-storms

Wednesday
Night
Wednesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 75. South wind around 5 mph.
Mostly Clear

Thursday

Thursday: Sunny, with a high near 96. Heat index values as high as 104. South southwest wind 5 to 10 mph.
Sunny

Thursday
Night
Thursday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 77. South wind around 10 mph.
Mostly Clear

Friday

Friday: Sunny, with a high near 95. South wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.
Sunny

Friday
Night
Friday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 77. South wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Mostly Clear

Saturday

Saturday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm.  Mostly sunny, with a high near 95. South southwest wind around 10 mph.
Mostly Sunny
then Slight
Chance
T-storms
Saturday
Night
Saturday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1am.  Partly cloudy, with a low around 76. South wind 5 to 10 mph.
Partly Cloudy
then Slight
Chance
T-storms
Lo 76 °F Hi 95 °F Lo 75 °F Hi 96 °F Lo 77 °F Hi 95 °F Lo 77 °F Hi 95 °F Lo 76 °F

 

Tonight
 
A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms before 7pm, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 4am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 76. South wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Wednesday
 
A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 10am, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Sunny, with a high near 95. Heat index values as high as 103. South wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Wednesday Night
 
Mostly clear, with a low around 75. South wind around 5 mph.
Thursday
 
Sunny, with a high near 96. Heat index values as high as 104. South southwest wind 5 to 10 mph.
Thursday Night
 
Mostly clear, with a low around 77. South wind around 10 mph.
Friday
 
Sunny, with a high near 95. South wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.
Friday Night
 
Mostly clear, with a low around 77. South wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Saturday
 
A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 95. South southwest wind around 10 mph.
Saturday Night
 
A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 76. South wind 5 to 10 mph.
Sunday
 
A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 1pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 96.
Sunday Night
 
Partly cloudy, with a low around 77.
Monday
 
A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 96.
Monday Night
 
Mostly clear, with a low around 78.
Tuesday
 
A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 97.

 

Forecast from NOAA-NWS for Denton TX.

Weather Forecast Discussion
594
FXUS64 KFWD 081746
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1246 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

...New Short Term, Long Term, Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and storms are expected today and Wednesday.
  Some storms may be on the stronger side, with the risk for gusty
  winds and small hail.

- Thursday and Friday should clear out before low rain chances
  (15-30%) return to the region this weekend.

- Near to slightly below normal temperatures are expected, with
  highs through the beginning of next week to remain in the low
  and mid 90s.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Tomorrow Night/

...Today and Tonight...

A weak upper-level disturbance will slowly drift south across the
Great Plains over the course of today. Morning convection in the
Central Plains associated with this disturbance has generated a
southward moving outflow boundary, serving as a focus point for
additional convective development which is already underway this
afternoon across portions of Oklahoma and Arkansas. Further to
the south across portions of Southeast and Eastern Texas,
scattered diurnally driven thunderstorms continue to develop and
slowly expand to the north. While these storms should remain east
of I-35 and south of I-20, there is much more uncertainty with
convective evolution from storms approaching the region from the
north.

With minimal CIN across Northern TX (sourced from ACARS soundings
at DFW and DAL), and weak, yet broad forcing for ascent from the
disturbance to the north, it seems probable that at least isolated
thunderstorms should develop across much of North Texas within
the next couple of hours. In general, the higher rain chances
(40-50%) will be east of US-75/I-45 across Northeast Texas. Lower
rain chances (15-30%) extend west into the Big Country. These
storms should by and large remain below severe limits, but an
isolated instance or two of a severe wind gust cannot be ruled
out, particularly if a more organized cluster of storms or MCS can
move into the region from Oklahoma later this evening. Any
potential for severe winds gusts will largely remain north of I-20
and east of US-281. It is also important to note, even though the
above scenario is the general consensus amongst short term
guidance, there is still substantial uncertainty in exact
location, intensity, and evolution of storms today. The vast
majority of ongoing storms this evening will dissipate with the
loss of diurnal heating. However, there is a very low chance
(10-15%) of a stray shower or thunderstorm lingering through the
overnight hours as slightly stronger forcing for ascent arrives
from the north.

...Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night...

The Central Great Plains trough is expected to continue its slow
progression to the south, with its axis roughly along or just
north of the Red River Valley by tomorrow afternoon. Diurnally
driven convection will once again develop across much of North and
Central Texas by the afternoon hours, with highest precipitation
chances (40-50%) across East Texas, diminishing with westward
extent (15-30% west of I-35). Storms are not expected to be
severe, but as with any summer-time convection, may produce
frequent lightning, gusty winds, and small hail. Due to the weak
synoptic forcing in place across the region, storms may linger
longer into the late evening/early overnight hours compared to
storms today. As such, the vast majority of activity should still
diminish by midnight tomorrow night.


Darrah

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Thursday through Monday/

Synoptic scale subsidence will build into the region by the end of
the week, suppressing diurnally driven convection Thursday and
Friday afternoons. Though ridging will build out west, near or
slightly below normal heights, and high boundary layer humidity
will keep afternoon temperatures near, or slightly below normal
(in the low to mid 90s). Peak heat indices will range from 95 to
105 each afternoon. Though medium range guidance trends closer to
near-normal temperatures for the weekend, rain chances (20-40%)
will also return across the region. As such, there is still
substantial uncertainty with high temperatures this weekend
onward, which will largely be dependent on how convection develops
and evolves during the afternoon and evening hours.


Darrah

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18Z Tue TAFs/

A somewhat complex convective scenario may unfold across North and
Central Texas this afternoon and evening. While the most likely
scenario is isolated TSRA (20-30%) across northern Texas through
22Z, there is a low chance (20%) of a more organized complex of
storms to move into D10 sometime between 21Z and 01Z. Should this
happen, storms would bring N/NE winds (350-050) of 20-40kts with
the passage of the gust front. With recent observations showing a
band of isolated shower and thunderstorm development across
northern D10 and storm motions to the northeast, will introduce
VCTS to KDFW and KDAL. Further south, diurnally driven -SHRA/-TSRA
is expected to remain just east of KACT, but should be close
enough to where VCSH will be retained in the 18Z TAFs.

Darrah

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    90  75  90  75  94 /  40  20  30   5   5
Waco                89  74  89  74  90 /  30  20  40   5   5
Paris               90  72  89  72  93 /  60  30  40   5   5
Denton              92  73  91  73  95 /  40  10  30   5   5
McKinney            90  74  89  73  93 /  50  30  30   5   5
Dallas              92  76  93  75  95 /  40  20  30   5   5
Terrell             90  73  90  73  93 /  40  30  50  10  10
Corsicana           92  75  92  75  93 /  30  30  50  10  10
Temple              90  73  89  73  92 /  30  20  40   5   5
Mineral Wells       92  72  92  72  95 /  20  10  20   5   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$
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Forecast Discussion from: NOAA-NWS Script developed by: El Dorado Weather






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