Denton, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

886
FXUS64 KFWD 220932
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
332 AM CST Sun Dec 22 2024

...New Long Term...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A steady warming trend is expected through Monday. Mild
  temperatures are expected throughout the week.

- Many areas will see measurable rain on Tuesday (Christmas Eve),
  with the best rain chances near and east of the I-35 corridor.

- Wednesday (Christmas Day) will be rain-free, but storm chances return
  on Thursday and will linger through the end of the week.

- There will be a low threat for isolated strong to severe storms
  in Central Texas on Tuesday (Christmas Eve). A severe weather
  threat may materialize again on Thursday, but confidence is low
  at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1253 AM CST Sun Dec 22 2024/
/Today and Tonight/

As of 12 AM CST, an upper-level trough axis was in place over the
eastern CONUS with broad ridging over the Rockies leaving North
and Central Texas beneath northwest flow aloft. Winds have shifted
back to the south on the backside of a surface high that extends
from Ontario to the Gulf Coast. With light southeasterly winds in
place, modest warm air and moisture advection tonight will keep
temperatures about 5 to 10 degrees warmer (mid/upper 30s) than
Saturday morning, particularly east of I-35. The coldest
temperatures are expected in northeast Texas (near or below 32 F)
which remains under the peripheral influence of the surface high
pressure. Daytime temperatures struggled to reach the 50s here so
even a few hours of moderate radiational cooling should send
temperatures tumbling into the lower 30s.

By daybreak a shortwave trough developing in northern
Montana/southern Alberta will begin diving southeast into the
Northern Plains, flattening the nearby ridge and pushing
downstream troughing further east. The net result is the northwest
flow aloft will transition to a more zonal pattern. The
associated lee surface low, combined with the surface high in the
Lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley, will lead to a steepening surface
pressure gradient and breezy southerly winds across the state
today. Isentropic ascent will increase as a result yielding dense
stratus tonight and warmer overnight lows. Highs today will range
from the mid 50s in the northeast to the mid 60s across western
North and Central Texas (W of I-35). Temperatures Sunday night
into Monday morning will be fairly mild for mid to late December
with lows in the mid 40s to lower 50s.

12

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Monday Onward/

A mid-level trough will be positioned over the Intermountain West
early Monday and will move east into the Plains by Monday evening.
As this occurs, a surface low will eject from the eastern flank of
the Rockies into the Southern Plains. Ahead of this system,
strengthening southerly flow will continue to advect Gulf
moisture into the region throughout the day Monday, with modest
warm air advection resulting in the development of patchy drizzle
beginning Monday afternoon and continuing into Monday night.

Widespread showers and scattered storms are expected to develop
near and ahead of the surface low`s attendant cold front as it
nears the area late Monday night into Tuesday morning (Christmas
Eve). Showers and storms will move east through the area
throughout the day with the passage of the front. Many locations
will see measurable rainfall, especially east of the I-35 corridor
where the highest coverage of showers and storms is expected.
There will be a low threat for isolated strong to severe storms
across Central Texas during the afternoon as instability reaches
its diurnal maximum, with hail and damaging wind gusts expected to
be the primary threats. Any strong or severe storms would be
quite isolated, but ensure you keep an eye on the weather if
traveling around the region.

Rain chances will end from west to east late Tuesday/Tuesday
night, just in time for Santa to make his rounds. The effect of
Tuesday`s cold front will be most noticeable Christmas morning, as
low temperatures will be in the mid 40s to low 50s. Afternoon
temperatures will only be a few degrees cooler for some locations
Christmas afternoon, with highs in the 60s to low 70s.

While Christmas Day will be rain-free, another system will arrive
Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing additional chances for
showers and storms. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop across the region as an upper low digs into the Southern
Plains and a Pacific front sweeps through the area. This system
has the potential to be more favorable for severe weather, but
there remains some uncertainty in how much moisture return will be
achieved prior to its arrival. It does bear watching throughout
the week, as there will likely be at least a low severe weather
threat if moisture return is sufficient. However, these specific
details will come more into focus over the next few days.

Mild temperatures will continue through the end of the week, with
daily afternoon highs in the 60s to low 70s and morning lows
mostly in the 40s to mid 50s. Low rain chances may linger late in
the week through early next weekend.

Barnes

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1212 AM CST Sun Dec 22 2024/
/06Z TAFs/

VFR conditions and south-southeast winds are expected for the
duration of the TAF period. The evening sounding from Fort Worth
showed a very thin layer of moisture at ~5000 ft AGL. Though clear
skies prevail across most of the airspace tonight there is a
plume of VFR ceilings (BKN/OVC 045-060) exiting the Metroplex and
spreading north and east of the North Texas TAF sites at the
beginning of the period.

Persistent low level southerly flow overnight will continue to
transport Gulf moisture into the region with a return of VFR
ceilings around 4000-5000 ft AGL this afternoon and evening.
Further degradation of flight conditions (MVFR cigs) is likely
just beyond the current extended TAF period. Winds will also pick
up this afternoon as a surface low develops over the Northern
Plains with sustained speeds of 10-15 kts and gusts to 20 kts
possible through the afternoon and evening.

12

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    61  49  66  57  65 /   0   0  10  40  60
Waco                64  52  71  59  68 /   0   0  10  20  70
Paris               55  43  62  53  62 /   0   0  10  60  80
Denton              61  47  65  54  65 /   0   0  10  40  50
McKinney            58  47  63  56  65 /   0   0  10  50  70
Dallas              61  50  67  58  67 /   0   0  10  40  70
Terrell             59  46  66  56  65 /   0   0  10  40  80
Corsicana           62  48  70  58  70 /   0   0  10  30  80
Temple              66  50  72  58  71 /   0   0  10  10  60
Mineral Wells       66  50  69  53  66 /   0   0  10  20  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$